Billy Wagner had a very complete, if not dominant career. Few have a chance to, not only go out on their own terms, but retire after having a season that can go down as one of his best ever. Personally, I was a fan, not only when he was a Met, but before and after as well. (I didn't hate him when he was a Phillie.) Lets put his career stats through the grinder and see if he is a hall of fame pitcher. 
   He started his career in 1996 after facing one batter the prior season. It took until the 1997 season before he solidified himself as the Astros closer finishing with 23 saves but 106 Ks in 66 1/3 IP. After notching 30 saves the following year, he had an all time season for Houston in 1999, finishing with 39 saves, 1.57 ERA, 127 Ks in 74 2/3 IP. After an injury would hold him back the following season, he added 39 and 35 saves the two subsequent seasons. 2003 would see him notch a career high with 44 saves, with a 1.78 ERA and 105 Ks in what was also a career high 86 IP. 
   After that he took his talents to Philadelphia. A lopsided trade (another one with the Astros and Phillies) sent him to the Phillies for Ezequiel Astacio, Brandon Duchworth, and Taylor Buchholz. He may have ran his mouth the most in Philadelphia, but he certainly produced. After injuries shortened his first season there, he had 38 saves, a 1.51 ERA and 87 Ks in 77 2/3 IP for the Phillies in 2005. He joined the Mets the next year, notching 40 saves, and getting the Mets to the playoffs. After he was traded from the Mets to the Red Sox, he signed with the Braves and finished with a bang. 2010 he was 7-2 with a career low 1.43 ERA, 37 saves and 104 Ks in 69 2/3 IP. 
   Two things hold Wagner back. Number one is his injury history kept his stats from being legendary. He lost a lot of time in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2008. He was also a terrible postseason pitcher. He gave up 4 runs in 3 games (3 IP) for the Astros in 1997-1999. He was beaten up by the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS for the Mets and gave up runs in both of his appearances for the Boston Red Sox in 2008. An injury forced him to walk off the mound for the Braves in 2010 postseason. 
   Though he, or no one else for that matter, is in the same class as Mariano Rivera, Wagner has a good chance of making the Hall of Fame. His 422 saves rank 5th all time trailing only Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith and John Franco. A seven time All Star, had 4 seasons with an ERA under 2.00 and 4 seasons notching 100 or more Ks. I say his stats speak for themselves. The only drawback is Hall of Famers like Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage and eventually Rivera all had postseason success, something Wagner did not have. Nonetheless, I think he will be a Hall of Famer. 
 


Comments

01/01/2012 10:44

You left out an adjective in the first sentence. But to the topic, personally I always felt that Wagner was always in the middle of the pack as far as closers go. Names like Fingers, Rivera, Sutter will always be remembered as dominant closers and I just don't think Wagner belongs in that class, especially with horrid postseason numbers.

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01/01/2012 12:35

Thanks for your comments Jason. First thing I did was correct my mistake in the first sentence. The only thing more embarrassing than a spelling or grammatical error is writing an incomplete sentence. Thanks for pointing that out. I wrote this post after looking over Wagner's career stats and comparing them to the top closers in baseball history. I used Rivera, Sutter, Fingers, Eckersley, and Goose Gossage, because they are all Hall of Famers. (Rivera is a lock) It is a difficult comparison, obviously, because Sutter, Fingers and Gossage pitched in the earlier era when closers pitched more than one inning. I also totaled Eckersley's stats from 1987 on, when he became a full time reliever to more accurately calculate ERA and WHIP. Wagner ranks 2nd on the list to Rivera in ERA, has the highest WHIP, 3rd most GF, 2nd most saves, and 3rd most Ks in the 4th most games and the 5th most innings. He had 1196 Ks in 903 IP for his career, while none of the other pitchers were even close to a strikeout an inning. I agree that his postseason numbers were not good at all. I don't look at him as a lock for the Hall by any stretch. The numbers show he was as dominant anyone on the mound, which makes him better than the middle of the pack. How quickly Trevor Hoffman gets in, if at all, will be a fair barometer to determine if Wagner will get in. I feel he will be strongly considered when he is eligible in the beginning og 2016.

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01/01/2012 17:16

Just curious, who would you put Wagner in the Hall with? HOU, with whom his best years were 9 years ago? NYM, with whom he had absolutely no playoff success? And while the stats are certainly impressive, I do believe it's more than just stats that makes a Hall of Famer. Looking at the top 10 Saves list, 10 years from now, people will still say Rivera, Fingers, and Eckersely were only the truly worthy Hall of Famers.

01/02/2012 06:18

I agree that total saves is an overrated stat. Assuming Wagner is clean, which we have to right now because there is no proof, his numbers are going to stand out against the players who will be eligible but are suspected to have been using. Baseball has let in players like Andre Dawson, Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven. All of whom may or may not have been HOF worthy. Wagner's almost 12 K/ 9 IP is one of the best in history. He will get consideration, writers will vote for him, but the question is... will he get in? And if he does, he will go in wearing an Astros hat. First Trevor Hoffman, then Wagner will get in. Just my opinion.

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