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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #29- San Diego Padres

2/22/2017

Two years ago, the San Diego Padres embarked on an off season that left many to believe they were going to be a legitimate contender. Prior to the 2015 season, the Padres made trades for outfielders Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, signed starting pitcher James Shields and traded for star closer Craig Kimbrel. They also added catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Will Middlebrooks, but none of that mattered as the team's chemistry was historically bad. Bad enough for the Padres to finish at 74-88 and for the team's play to cost nine year manager Bud Black his job. The following off season saw Upton leave for the Detroit Tigers as a free agent and starting pitcher Ian Kennedy to leave for the Kansas City Royals. General Manager AJ Preller then traded the likes of Kemp, Kimbrel and contemporary first baseman Yonder Alonso, second baseman Jedd Gyorko and pitcher Andrew Cashner, getting some good returns, but not enough to excite people into thinking the Padres will start playing winning baseball anytime soon.
The Padres will start their second season under manager Andy Green, himself just 39 years-old. The Pads finished 2016 with a 78-94 record, one which matched their level of competitiveness. One positive was the performance of first baseman Myers, who hit 28 home runs and made his first All Star team. Another first for Wil was the fact that he made it through a full season without hitting the disabled list. Second baseman Ryan Schimpf hit 20 home runs last season and hope is that young top prospects Hunter Renfroe (right field), Manuel Margot (center field) and Austin Hedges (catcher) can immediately help this season. If not, it expects to be a long season for the Padres, but one that could be productive from a player development perspective.
Right hand pitcher Anderson Espinosa came over from the Boston Red Sox last season in a trade for left handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz. He ranks as MLB's 25th best prospect while former Red Sox OF Margot ranks as the game's 23rd. RF Renfroe ranks 42 while right handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, son of former MLB reliever Paul, ranks number 97. It is reasonable for the Padres to see Espinosa and Quantrill this season as they look to incorporate some youth into a rough looking pitching staff. That being said, it is most likely both could be up closer to September. First baseman Josh Naylor came over in the Cashner trade last season from Miami.
The pitching staff as it currently sits seems like San Diego's Achilles heel. If you average five innings over the course of 162 games, that means a team needs 810 innings from a series of pitchers. Coming into the off season, the Padres Luis Perdomo (9 wins, 10 losses, 5.71 earned run average with a team high just under 147 innings pitched) and Christian Friedrich (5-12, 4.80) were the best representation of the Padres holdovers. The signed left hander Clayton Richard towards the end of last season and Richard pitched really well in nine starts. The Padres will attempt to fill those 810 innings with free agent signings Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver and Jarred Cosart in addition to Perdomo, Friedrich and Richard. Perhaps the Padres will look to use their starters in shorter segments to better combat match up disadvantages. With all these questions, every idea has to be considered.
The Padres bullpen will be led by reliever Brandon Maurer (72 K's in just less than 70 IP) and Carter Capps, who is attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery. Left handed reliever Brad Hand (4-4, 2.92, 82 games pitched) and right handed reliever Ryan Buchter (3-0, 2.86, 67 games) both pitched pretty well last season and could be part of a better than anticipated bullpen if Capps and Maurer pitch well. In all honesty, Capps can be an intriguing pitcher for them. He has more of a closer's mentality than Maurer. Perhaps the latter can improve on his 2016 season, which left some to be desired.
The Padres lineup is led by their one positive 2015 season acquisition, Myers. Yangervis Solarte (.286, 15, 71 in just 109 games) is Myers most proven protection in the batting order. The future looks good with Margot, Renfroe and Hedges but the trio combined to play in 10, 11 and 8 games, respectively, in the 2016 season. Schimpf hit his 20 home runs in just 89 games and GM Preller is still looking for a competitive option to challenge shortstop incumbent Luis Sardinas. Outfielders Alex Dickerson and Travis Jankowski will start the year in left and center and both will compete for the starting left field job once Margot is ready to play every day. Going with Margot as the starting center fielder, this is the lineup I would use to start the season- Margot CF, Solarte 3B, Schimpf 2B, Myers 1B, Renfroe RF, Hedges C, Jankowski LF, Sardinas SS.
Veterans Erick Aybar, Collin Cowgill, Tony Cruz, Jabari Blash and Brett Wallace are all in camp with the intention of making this roster. They likely have a chance to be the Padres bench this coming season. Dickerson and Corey Spangenberg have the best opportunity to provide depth if there is an injury in camp.
The Padres future looks a lot brighter than it did a year ago. Fans should be excited over the young players who will be playing every day but should be a little cautious over what they see immediately. Perhaps Hedges, Margot, Renfroe and others may need a little more seasoning before they can be the assumed future of the franchise. Manager Green has his hands full in his second season behind the bench. The Padres over/ under number is set at 64.5 and I think it is a fairly accurate one in a season where I disagree with a lot of the O/U's. I still go with the under, having the Padres at 62-100, last place in the National League West division.

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2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #15 Miami Marlins

3/18/2016

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Expectations is a word thrown out to describe a level of talent on a baseball field. This talent can be assembled through a draft and farm system or from completely outside the organization. Many teams develop a player or two and attempt to bring other good players in to complement them. Expectations in baseball refer to a particular team's talent on paper. It is almost like the paper number is supposed to be an actual number of wins. Expectations never account for chemistry and other intangibles and in many cases, the numbers get distorted. While the players assembled may end up doing their part, the simplest key to winning a baseball game is to score one more run than the team you are playing. Do that more often than the opposition scores one more run than you and you should finish the season with a winning record.
The Miami Marlins made some aggressive moves after the 2014 season. The trade for Dee Gordon gave them a new identity. While expectations for the 2015 season were a little bit tamed, word was the Marlins had improved themselves enough to contend. The team also had signed first baseman Michael Morse, traded for pitcher Dan Haren and signed free agent right handed pitcher Mat Latos. What anybody that follows baseball was not able to put a quantity on was the mental state of the Marlins ownership and front office, which came to a head last season. The Marlins made the decision to fire manager Mike Redmond and inexplicably named general manager Dan Jennings as field manager. While Jennings may not have been against the decision, it seemed like the call was made by ownership, mainly principal owner Jeffrey Loria. Jennings had no prior managerial experience, but apparently had to do it if he wanted to keep his job. Assistant general manager Mike Hill was the interim GM, taking over for Jennings. It worked out about as well as could be expected, though the Marlins did go 16-10 in the month of September. The environment created in the Marlins clubhouse was nothing short of awkward. If a scapegoat should be given for the 2015 Marlins season (20 games under .500), it should be owner Loria, Brought into the fire this season is former Dodgers manager Don Mattingly, whom Loria was a fan of during his time as the New York Yankees first baseman.
The Marlins are going to live or die over the contribution of star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton (.265 batting average, 27 home runs, 67 runs batted in, .952 on base plus slugging) and pitcher Jose Fernandez (6 wins, 1 loss, 2.92 earned run average, 79 strikeouts, just under 65 innings pitched). Stanton played essentially the first 74 games to start the season, then missed the remainder of it. Fernandez made 11 starts in the second half of the season as he returned from Tommy John surgery. However, Fernandez was shut down in September. The Marlins need a healthy Stanton and Fernandez to have a shot at finishing .500, let alone making it to the postseason.
The signing of free agent left hand pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (11-8, 3.34, 153 Ks, just over 191 IP) was one of the best team signings of the entire off season. Chen signed a deal for 5 years and $70 million with an opt out clause after two seasons. So, technically the deal was for 2 years and $20.2 million, which is below market value for the starting pitcher. The Marlins also added starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (4-3, 3.07, 47 games - all in relief), who was released from his contract with the Chicago Cubs last season. While Jackson will make just over $500,000 from the Marlins this season, he will get paid the balance of his $13 million he and the Cubs agreed to just prior to the 2013 season. Also in that position is veteran infielder Chris Johnson (.255, 3, 18, .644), who is owed $17.5 million from 2016-2018 from the Cleveland Indians (through Atlanta Braves). Johnson makes a similar $500,000+ from Miami with the Indians on the hook for slightly less than $7 million. And outfielder Ichiro Suzuki (.229, 1, 21, .561 in 153 games) is back just 65 hits away from getting to 3000.
The Marlins have a solid offense that is predicated on Stanton being the number three or four hitter. Center fielder Marcell Ozuna (.259, 10, 44, .691) had a terrible season in 2015 on a number of different levels. The Marlins kept him in the minors, likely more than he deserved to be and there was thought he would be traded before the start of this baseball season. Left fielder Christian Yelich (.300, 7, 44, .782), himself missing over 30 games due to injury in 2015, gives the Marlins one of the most intriguing young outfields in the game, assuming Ozuna bounces back and Stanton and Yelich can remain healthy for the full season. First baseman Justin Bohr (.262, 23, 73, .800) had a breakout year and instantly becomes trusted as a left handed power threat. Third baseman Martin Prado (.288, 9, 63, .732) and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (.281, 5, 48, .689) also battled some injury problems last season that cost them significant time. Rookie catcher JT Realmuto (.259, 10, 47, .696) had a decent first season and will handle the catching duties again this season.
Outside of Stanton, their best offensive player is clearly Gordon (.333, 4, 46, .776, 58 stolen bases). Gordon backed up a solid 2014 where he hit .289, stole 60 bases, had 174 hits and 12 triples with an even better season in Miami where he had over 200 hits. He is an igniter at the top of the order and has really come into his own. Gordon leads a Marlins lineup that goes like this: ... Yelich LF, Stanton RF, Bohr 1B, Ozuna CF, Prado 3B, Hechavarria SS, Realmuto C. Johnson and Suzuki lead a veteran bench that also includes backup catcher Jeff Mathis and Derek Dietrich (.256, 10, 24 in 90 games). Middle infielder Miguel Rojas (.282, 1, 17, 62 games) rounds out the prospective Marlins bench.
Fernandez and Chen form a very solid one- two punch at the top of the Miami rotation. After that, as many as six pitchers could fill out the remaining three starting spots. Right handers Tom Koehler (11-14, 4.08, 31 starts, just over 181 IP) and Jarred Cosart (2-5, 4.52, 13 starts, just under 70 IP) have the inside track but others are in the mix including free agent signing Jackson, who is trying once again to become a full time starting pitcher. David Phelps (4-8, 4.50, 19 starts, 112 innings) and left hander Justin Nicolino (5-4, 4.01, 12 starts, 74 IP) can probably both start and relieve if necessary. Top pitching prospect lefty Adam Conley (4-1, 3.76, 11 starts, 67 IP) will likely take over a full time spot in the rotation at some point this season. With some uncertainty about Fernandez and Cosart himself just returning from an injury plagued 2015 season, the Marlins will likely need all the starting pitching they can find, including projected reliever Brad Hand and 24 year old righty Jose Urena.
The Marlins bullpen took a major hit when right hander Carter Capps (1-0, 1.16, 58 Ks, 31 IP) went down for the season due to Tommy John. Closer AJ Ramos (2-4, 2.30, 32 saves, 87 Ks, just under 71 IP) returns to be the closer with Bryan Morris (5-4, 3.14, 67 games, 63 IP) likely serving as the righty set up man. Right handers Kyle Barraclough (2-1, 2.59, 30 Ks just over 24 IP) and Brian Ellington (2-1, 2.88, 23 games, 25 IP) both excelled when given an opportunity at the end of last season and will be given the chance to remain factors late in games. Lefty Mike Dunn (along with Stanton and Hand) is part of the only Marlins who played for the team in 2011 when they referred to themselves as "Florida." However, he has been very inconsistent, particularly in 2015 when his ERA was over 4.50.
Right hander Kendry Flores is worth taking a look at this season along with the lefty Conley. The Marlins have a left hand pitcher named Brett Lilek, who has very imposing stuff but is a couple years away most recently pitching in the New York Penn League. Top prospects Tyler Kolek, a pitcher taken in the first round in 2014 and Josh Naylor, a first baseman taken in the first round last season, will need at least another two or three years in the minors before we can think about them in South Florida.
The Marlins have had a difficult time trotting out the same team day in and day out. Mattingly gives the team a proven manager and the team does possess a lot of talent. I think the Marlins will be better in 2016 than they were last season. However, I think there is too much competition for them to be a legitimate postseason contender. Like a couple other teams, if the Marlins can get off to a good start, they might be in a position to be aggressive around the trading deadline. I think Loria is hoping that is the case and because of that, he will likely open the wallet to back a contender. The Marlins won 71 games last season and Las Vegas puts their over/ under at 80.5. I go with the over, just slightly, and have the Marlins at 82-80, third place in the National League East division.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews 2014: #30 Houston Astros

3/2/2014

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I'm happy to be putting together my annual MLB team previews for the 3rd consecutive March. Each of the past seasons, I have learned from my experience that I have to make adjustments to my initial thoughts. My beef has been with all the experts just piggy backing off Baseball Prospectus to rank the teams to prospective finishes. Before the 2012 season, I tried to make a point that they are never completely correct. By doing so, I made some bolder predictions to try to stand out. I also noticed that the know it alls simply like to predict that the same teams that were successful last season will automatically be great the following year. While that is not necessarily true, there is no formula to pick that "sleeper team" for any given season. Doing this for the 3rd season, I've put together a better balance of logic and belief in the up and comer. Feel free to comment both on the outlook of each team I preview as well as where I rank them among the 30 in MLB.
The Houston Astros made their debut in the AL last season and did probably as well as could have been expected. The competition of both the AL West and the American League as a whole made the transition very difficult. On the bright side, the team has invested a lot in its player development and has one of the best young farm systems in all of MLB. Under new manager Bo Porter, the team finished 51-111 with the worst record in all of MLB. In what I feel was a stark contrast to last off season, I actually think the Astros did a good job. They traded for Dexter Fowler, getting themselves a regular CF and also added 1B Jesus Guzman and RHP Alex White through trades. They signed Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams as free agents, two pitchers who should be able to eat innings and give the team better matchups against other teams starters. I agree that neither will ever be a number one, but having them at the top is better than what they have had over the past two seasons. They also added veteran relievers Jesse Crain and Chad Qualls to the mix, hopefully blending in with the younger arms they have.
While the outlook does not look too good for this season, there is a lot to look forward to. Shortstop prospect and former number one overall draft pick Carlos Correa should make his MLB debut this season as well as Jonathan Singleton, George Springer and Delino DeShields, Jr. Jared Cosart is their first high end pitching prospect to make his debut in this regime. He is likely to be joined by Mark Appel and Lance McCullers, Jr soon. It will be difficult to expect any of these players to star right away, but for Cosart and Appel it would not be a surprise.
As far as this season goes, the Astros are returning their two best offensive players, All Stars Jason Castro (.276, 18, 56) and Jose Altuve (.283, 5, 52). They are joined by Chris Carter (.223, 28, 82, 212 Ks) and Matt Dominguez (.241, 21, 77). Soon to be 23 year old SS Jonathan Villar (May 9) will be the starting SS opening day. He hit .243 in 58 games last season and will step aside as soon as Correa is ready. Fowler is coming off a down season in Colorado (.263, 12, 42) where he played in just 119 games due to injury. Guzman (.226, 9, 35 in 126 games in 2013) has faded over the past two seasons since having a solid 2011. LJ Hoes (.287, 1, 10 in 46 games) and Robbie Grossman (.268, 4, 21 in 63 games) are likely to start in the outfield until Springer and maybe DeShields (if they move him from 2B) are ready for the big leagues. It is a matter of time before Singleton and Correa take over for Guzman and Villar, repectively. My lineup would look like this: Altuve 2B, Hoes RF, Fowler CF, Castro C, Carter DH, Dominguez 3B, Guzman 1B, Grossman LF, Villar SS. Marwin Gonzalez and JD Martinez will probably anchor the bench with a possibility that Marc Krauss gets a look. Ultimately, the prospects will move some of the projected regulars to the bench.
I do like the moves to bring in both Feldman (12-12, 3.86 in 30 starts for Cubs and Orioles) and Williams (9-10, 4.57 in 37 games, 25 starts for Angels). Cosart (1-1, 1.95 in 10 starts last season) and Brad Peacock (5-6, 5.18 in 18 games, 14 starts) are likely to start the season in the rotation. The final spot and top insurance policies will be from the group of Brett Oberholtzer (4-5, 2.76 in 13 games, 10 starts), Lucas Harrell (6-17, 5.86 in 36 games, 22 starts), Dallas Keuchel (6-10, 5.15, 31, 22), Paul Clemens (4-7, 5.40, 35, 5) and Collin McHugh (0-4, 10.04, 7, 5). Don't let some of the numbers deceive you, Keuchel and Harrell should show improvement this season and McHugh has not gotten a full chance to start in the big leagues yet. Ultimately, Appel and Mike Foltynewicz could get their feet wet this season. Feldman, Williams and Peacock should be able to eat a lot of innings this season. Cosart and Harrell will fill out the rotation, in my opinion, to start the season.
The Astros bullpen is a disaster. Last year, they got some help from Jose Veras before he was traded to the Tigers. Wesley Wright (0-4, 3.92 in 54 games in 2013 with Astros) was traded to the Rockies for Alex White, who could be an important piece in the bullpen for them. The fact that Josh Fields (1-3, 4.97 in 41 games) and Chia-Jen Lo (0-3, 4.19 in 19 games) are the favorites to be the team's closer does not bode well for them. Crain, if he is healthy, can be a godsend for the one time Colt 45s (2-3, 0.74 in 38 games with White Sox last season). Despite a very good 2013 for the Marlins, Chad Qualls (5-2, 2.61 in 66 games) has been very up and down season to season. White (2-9. 5.91 in 23 games, 20 starts for Rockies last season) was a top prospect for Indians and Rockies and could be a sleeper to establish himself as a reliever. Darrin Downs and Raul Valdez will battle for the left handed specialist role. Two others to watch are former Padres RHP Anthony Bass and former Red Sox and Indians RP Matt Albers. My bullpen would consist of Fields, Lo, Bass, Crain, Qualls, Albers and Downs. They all need to be at their best for this to be a good BP this year.
I think the Astros can improve this year, but not much based on record. They were 51-111 last season; I see them at 58-104, last place in the AL West. Vegas had them at 62.5, so I am taking the under. The 7 game improvement does not seem like much, but they play in one of the toughest divisions in all of MLB. The importance is in the development and to get some of the younger top players into the majors. I think 2015 could see a significant improvement if the seeds start to get planted.

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Acquiring "Prospects" in a deal the same as not citing anonymous sources

11/12/2012

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    Rebuilding a team is one of the hardest things for an organization. Yet fans think it is so easy. Winning is the most important thing when it comes to fans. They expect their teams to win, at all costs. Lead a respective division for a good part of the season, then add the final pieces at the trading deadline. Seems to work in all sports, not just baseball. When winning is no longer a possibility, the priority switches to rebuilding. And it is usually a drastic one. "Trade key players for prospects!" That is heard once it has become clear a season has become a disappointment. That is what the Phillies did this season when they traded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. The Mets did the same with Carlos Beltran in 2011.
    While it is not a bad idea since the Mets got back Zack Wheeler and the Phillies Tommy Joseph, fans tend to thing these moves always work out. So with the latest rumor from the Wall Street Journal that the Mets, Fred and Jeff Wilpon and Saul Katz are broke (to me, it is just a repetition of the same thing that circulates when there is nothing else to talk about), those who can easily say to trade David Wright and RA Dickey should feel like they can get what they want. Prospects.
    Nothing makes a trade proposal for an average and ordinary fan easier than saying they want to see their team get prospects back in a deal. It gives them a warm and cosy feeling, like their team will be fine in the near future. Yet one thing seems to always be missing when one of these trades are proposed... THE NAMES OF THE PLAYERS COMING BACK IN THE PROPOSED DEAL! Do you not care who you get back in the trade? Is it more important to move a key player than actually get back something of equal value? Or are you just too lazy to do the necessary research to gauge the market value?
    Something tells me it is none of the three questions I just asked. Simply because the "trading for prospects" has taken the place of trading for specific players. I know what most mean, they want to get star young players who will help out within the next year or two. But, why can't people making these proposals simply state the names of the prospects they want to see their team get back? Instead of "prospects", why not name players like Manny Machado, Trevor Bauer, Mike Montgomery, Adam Eaton, Gary Brown, Nick Castellanos, Billy Hamilton, etc. At least you look like you did the research.
    But to some, it does not matter. Some Mets fans would be happy with a trade of Wright for four players to be named later. Simply because they would be happy with four players who are age 24 and under. They have to be good, right? So who cares who they are? As silly of an attitude as that seems, it is the exact one that is expressed when somebody says "trade David Wright for prospects."
    The main reason Jose Reyes was not traded during the 2011 season was the fact that Reyes was testing the free agent waters regardless of where he was playing. The Mets were never getting fair market value for Reyes, since the trading team would never give up to prospects such as Brown, Jarred Cosart, Jacob Turner or Zack Cox in such a deal. Kevin Plawecki, the catcher the Mets drafted with the draft pick they got for losing Reyes, has more of an upside that the A to AA level minor leaguer(s) the Mets could have gotten for dumping Reyes.
    Is it necessary to name the "prospects" you want to see a team acquire for trading a player? Or does the research take away from rooting for your favorite football team? I am all in favor of the fair trade. The next time you suggest a trade of a key player, or even that of a player who you would like to see moved because of the amount of money he is making, finish the whole trade instead of saying for "prospects".

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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #29- San Diego Padres

2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #15 Miami Marlins

30-1 MLB countdown previews 2014: #30 Houston Astros

Acquiring "Prospects" in a deal the same as not citing anonymous sources

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