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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #17- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

3/4/2017

If you listen to the baseball media, you will learn two things about the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. First off, they have the best player in baseball in Mike Trout; in fact, you probably cannot hear any other information about the Angels before some scribe thinks they are breaking news by making the most obvious statement in the sport. The other thing the media wants to remind you is the fact that the Angels are coming off a bad season, one in which they finished at 74-88.
Manager Mike Sciosia is entering his 18th season as the Angels manager. The Angels have finished with a winning record in 12 of Scioscia's 17 previous managerial seasons and two of the past three. Many of these writers seem to have forgotten that the Angels won 85 games in 2015. Not only have they written the Angels off, but many have foolishly suggested the team should trade Trout, maybe because they feel the Angels "don't deserve him." Not only are the writers clueless in their assessment of the Angels, but a trade of Trout would do nothing but harm to the Angels, even if they decide to completely rebuild.
Not only is Trout the best player in the game, but he has shown no signs of decline or depreciation. The fact that he is 25 years old means he is just entering the prime of his career. If the Angels were interested in making a trade, they would have the right to ask for a package of players that had never been included in a trade. A case could be made that no team has the farm system to give a return that would satisfy what the Angels can justifiably demand. For example, if the Angels were talking to the Yankees, they could respectively ask for catcher Gary Sanchez, outfielders Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier, shortstops Gleybar Torres and Jorge Mateo and pitchers James Kaprielian and Luis Severino. While no Yankees fan would except that trade, the Angels could make a case that the package may still not be enough. As another hypothetical, I will use the Chicago White Sox. For Trout, the Angels have the right to ask for infielders Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson, pitchers Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Kopech and it very well might simply not be enough (+ Jose Quintana?). The point is, the Angels have the right to ask for an unprecedented return and stick to it. And nobody that has interest in Mike Trout will step up to the plate and make such a deal. Finally, if Mike Trout is ever traded for a package of players that does not satisfy his worth, not only should the entire executive branch of the Angels baseball department lose their jobs, but a case could be made that the owner should give up ownership for the team and not receive a dime for it.
One thing that stands out about the 2016 Angels is the fact that only six players managed to play in over 100 games and only three starting pitchers made 20 or more starts for them last season. The team managed to address their offensive depth situation by adding outfielder Cameron Maybin, second baseman Danny Espinosa and catcher Martin Maldonado in trades and signing free agent corner infielder Luis Valbuena. Journeyman starting pitcher Jesse Chavez was also brought in to battle for a spot in the back of the Angels' rotation. Veteran starter Jered Weaver is gone via free agency and three of the Angels projected four starters are coming off of major injuries. Garrett Richards made just six starts last season and could have had Tommy John surgery. Instead, he chose to rehab and seems ready to start the season in the Angels rotation. Tyler Skaggs missed the entire 2015 season due to the operation, but did pitch well in most of his ten starts in the second half of the season. Matt Shoemaker's 2016 season ended on September 4, but is expected to be in good shape to start the season. Pitchers Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano have their 2017 seasons lost due to TJ. One of the bigger surprises last season for the Angels was right handed pitcher Ricky Nolasco, who pitched to a 3.21 earned run average and averaged 6 and a half innings for his 11 Angels starts. He was acquired from the Minnesota Twins in a deal for left hander Hector Santiago. Non roster invitees Bud Norris, John Lamb and Yusmeiro Petit are all competing with Chavez and former Twins righty (also in the Nolasco/ Santiago trade) Alex Meyer for the number five spot.
Closer Huston Street had his 2016 season shortened due to injury. Prior to his season ending, Street pitched to a scary 6.45 injury and may be a concern to start this season. Cam Bedrosian (1.12 ERA, 11.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched) may be ready to take over as the full time closer. Veteran Andrew Bailey pitched to a 2.38 ERA in 12 games for them last season. Left hander Jose Alvarez and righties Mike Morin and Deolis Guerra seem to be locks to gain spots in the pen. Left handed pitcher JC Ramiez and right hander Daniel Wright will battle with Norris, Chavez, Lamb and Petit for a spot in the front of the bullpen.
For the first time in a couple years, the Angels have a pretty good offense to protect the game's best player. The additions of Maybin, Espinosa and Valbuena add a little bit more of a length to a lineup that relied on Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun last season. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons hit a career high .281 but was limited to 124 games in his first season in Los Angeles. First baseman CJ Cron hit 16 home runs in 116 games last year and third baseman Yunel Escobar hit over .300 for the second consecutive season. The catching situation should not produce a lot of offense, but the Angels like the game calling abilities of both Maldonado and Carlos Perez. The Angels lineup I would use opening day is Maybin LF, Escobar 3B, Trout CF, Pujols DH, Calhoun RF, Cron/ Valbuena 1B, Espinosa 2B, Simmons SS, Maldonado C. Veteran Ben Revere is in to be a fourth outfielder and infielder Cliff Pennington will help out in the middle infield.
Outfielder Jahmai Jones has the ability to become a star. With his father and brother having made it to the NFL as wide receivers for the Detroit Lions, Jahmai has used that genetic athleticism and added it to his already superior baseball IQ. 2016 first round pick Matt Thaiss, who is a Jackson, New Jersey high school alum, has a great eye at the plate and does not strike out very much. This is worth watching as few potential power bats are able to curb the K's like Thaiss has shown early on. Right hand pitcher Keynan Middleton could crack the roster as a reliever this spring. If not, expect him to have the same impact on the team Bedrosian did last year. Meyer is still considered a prospect, but that status is hanging on by its last legs.
The Angels have a very good squad that can compete with anybody if everybody stays healthy. Injuries destroyed the team's chances and they will need to have Skaggs, Richards and Shoemaker healthy if they want to compete with the more talented teams in the American League West division, clearly the best division in baseball. I think the Angels can stay in the Wild Card race into the month of September, but just do not have (on paper) the overall talent to win more games than the Astros, Mariners and Rangers. Anything can happen, but the Angels need a lot more to go right than the other ALW teams to come out on top in this division. The Las Vegas over/ under for the Angels is 76.5. I am taking the over, thinking the Angels can finish at 82-80, fourth place in the American League West division.

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2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #7 Washington Nationals

3/27/2016

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What happens to that team that was considered to be flawless just a year ago? Many times a team stands out as being so superior to the rest in regards to talent. The experts announce that it is "their time." If that team has some injury, clubhouse chemistry or other internal problems that keep them from reaching their expected potential, how does that impact their potential standing for the subsequent season? I mean, it is essentially the same team that had such high expectations a year ago. Maybe it is simply the fact the team did not live up to the hype that leads to many not backing them like they did a season ago.

The 2015 Washington Nationals were coming off a National League East division title, their second in three seasons. With a team already constructed that seemed prepared to take the next step, the Nationals made one of the most aggressive moves in the entire off season, inking Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to a seven year deal. The Nationals were already known for having one of the best starting rotations, one that featured Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark. In what was considered an overflow of riches, the Nationals would move Roark, a 15 game winner in 2014, to the bullpen to serve as an extra starting pitcher when needed.
We all know what happened during the disappointing Nationals season. It started with under achievement. Then, it became a mission of making up the lost ground in the standings. After that failed, it became a game of who should be blamed. Of course, it started with the media. The media started with their "Nationals are a disappointment" campaign. This smear then made its way into the National clubhouse, where the Nats players started pointing fingers, first at their manager Matt Williams and then eventually at each other. That is what losing clubhouses do. Winning keeps a team unified, losing pulls it apart. Williams paid for the under achievement with his job; out after just two seasons, the first one resulting in an incredible 95 wins. That basically explains how much bad of a season the Nationals had in proportion to what their expectations were.
The Nationals decided to go outside the organization for their next manager. General manager Mike Rizzo wanted to hire somebody who had major league managerial experience. Dusty Baker, the longtime manager of the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, was chosen over longtime San Diego Padres manager Bud Black. Infielders Ian Desmond (.233 batting average, 19 home runs, 62 runs batted in, .674 on base plus slugging)- free agent with the Texas Rangers, and Yunel Escobar (.314, 9, 56, .790)- trade to the Los Angeles Angels, were swapped out for Daniel Murphy (.281, 14, 73, .770)- free agent from the New York Mets, and Stephen Drew (.201, 17, 44, .652)- free agent from the New York Yankees. Free agents Zimmermann (13 wins, 10 losses, 3.66 earned run average, 164 strikeouts, just under 202 innings pitched) and Fister (5-7, 4.19, 25 games, 15 starts) left as free agents to the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros, respectively.
Closer, at least until Rizzo ruined the bullpen's chemistry by trading for Jonathan Papelbon, Drew Storen was dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Ben Revere (.306, 2, 45, .719, 24 stolen bases), who was added to replace the departed Denard Span (.302, 5, 37, .771, 31 SB). The Storen trade was the start in a renovated bullpen, which includes free agent signings Oliver Perez (2-4, 4.15, 51 Ks, 41 IP), Shawn Kelley (2-2, 2.45, 63 Ks, just over 51 IP) and Yusmeiro Petit (1-1, 3.67, 42 games, 1 start, 76 IP). Right hander Trevor Gott (4-2, 3.02, 48 games pitched, just under 48 IP) came over in the Escobar trade and will replace the injured Aaron Barrett (3-3, 4.60, 35 Ks, just over 29 IP), out recovering from Tommy John surgery. Papelbon (4-3, 2.13, 56 Ks, just over 63 IP) had a solid season for the second division Philadelphia Phillies but was not as dominant with the Nats. He averaged just over 9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched with the Phillies and dropped to just over 6 with the Nationals. 2015 hold overs Blake Treinen (2-5, 3.86, 65, just under 68) and Felipe Rivero (2-1, 2.79, 43, just over 48) will be part of the mix. An interesting pitcher to look at is right hander Rafael Martin, who appeared in just 13 games and pitched to a 5.11 ERA. In just over 12 innings, Martin managed to strike out a fantastic 25 batters, a rate of 18.2 per nine innings pitched. Burke Badenhop and Nick Masset have proven themselves in other teams bullpens but are currently on the outside looking in.
Losing Zimmermann and Fister (though Fister was a disappointment last season) will hurt the Nationals but a case could he made for the starting rotation being a little better going into 2016. Roark (4-7, 4.38, 40 games, 12 starts) was very effective in 2014 as a starting pitcher winning 15 games, pitching to a 2.85 ERA and finishing with a 131 ERA+. Right hander Joe Ross (5-5, 3.64, 69 Ks, just under 77 IP) was brought in during the off season that sent outfielder Steven Souza to the Rays and also awarded the Nationals shortstop Trea Turner. If Ross raises his game, he may be able to easily account for the loss of Zimmermann and Roark should be able to easily replace Fister, who may have plateaued or could be on the decline. Scherzer (14-12, 2.79, 276, just under 229, 4 complete games, 3 shutouts, 2 no hitters) did what he could to back up his contract and the discussion that came with it. With his impending free agency, Stephen Strasburg (11-7, 3.46, 155, just over 127) should perform at a very high level this season, leaving veteran Gio Gonzalez (11-8, 3.79, 169, just under 176) as the number three starter. Petit will serve as a backup in case of an injury with top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito waiting in the wings.
I take a lot of pride in the fact that I have written six full paragraphs about the Washington Nationals without mentioning outfielder Bryce Harper. Harper (.330, 42, 99, 1.109) is coming off a well deserved National League Most Valuable Player award and is excepting his role as the face of the franchise. Corner infielders Ryan Zimmerman (.249, 16, 73, .779) and Anthony Rendon (.264, 5, 25, .707) will be forces in the Nationals lineup if both are healthy, which they were not last season. Murphy and Drew will be up the middle with Turner (.322, 8, 54, .828, 29 SB) waiting in the wings. Turner will likely start the season in AAA, but seems to be major league ready in spite of being selected in the 2014 draft. Veteran Jayson Werth (.221, 12, 42, .685) will start the season in left field with Revere taking the reigns as the everyday center fielder. Last season's center fielder Michael Taylor (.229, 14, 63, .640) has a full season under his belt and is expected to perform better this season. If this is the case, expect the Nationals to play Taylor in center, move Revere to left and use Werth off the bench. The same will be said for when Turner comes up. He will replace Drew making him into a utility player. Catcher Wilson Ramos (.229, 15, 68, .616) will once again be the starting catcher. Hopefully Ramos can finally live up to the hype which touted him as the game's next big time offensive catcher.
The lineup I would start the season with is Revere CF, Murphy 2B, Rendon 3B, Harper RF, Zimmerman 1B, Ramos C, Drew SS, Werth LF. Infielder Danny Espinosa (.240, 13, 37, .719) is the reason Turner will be in AAA, as he can spell at second, short or third base. Left handed Clint Robinson (.272, 10, 34, .782) is one of the more underrated power bench bats in all of baseball. Former Mets outfielder Matt den Dekker and veteran Chris Heisey will be competing for the last bench spot with Heisey having the upper hand being right handed. Jose Lobaton (.199, 3. 20, .573) serves as the backup catcher. 22 year old Pedro Severino could work his way into the mix with Jhonathon Solano serving as another catching option. Veterans Reed Johnson and Brendan Ryan are also trying to win jobs.
All the talk in Washington is about Giolito, the right hander who amassed 131 strikeouts in 117 innings last season. The expectation of the current number three prospect in all of major league baseball is yet another reason the Nationals were okay watching Zimmermann and Fister leave via free agency. Right hander AJ Cole is kind of forgotten about as he was once thought of as a top Nationals prospect. His trade to the Oakland Athletics and subsequent return in another trade has left him unattended to. He still has the talent to be a solid three starter even though his fastball generally rests in the low 90s. Turner should be a very good offensive player right away and also has a little speed in addition to his above average ability as a shortstop.
I was among the many that liked the Washington Nationals to get to, and win, the World Series in 2015. I admit it, though you seemed pretty silly if you picked against it last March. Chances are the Nats could thrive without the huge expectations that burdened them last year. A case can also be made that the pressure is now on the Mets after the latter made it to the World Series last season. Las Vegas has the Nationals at 87 for their over/ under, an expectation that is less than last season. And I believe enough in the composition of this roster and new manager Dusty to think the Nationals can exceed the Vegas prediction. However, I am only taking them at 88-74, second place in the National League East division.

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2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #11 Toronto Blue Jays

3/22/2016

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The discussion continues with the 30-1 MLB countdown previews. To this point, 18 of the 30 MLB teams have been previewed and based off the results, many of the teams are not separated by many games at all. In fact, 17 of the 30 teams, according to this particular countdown, will finish with a winning record with an 18th team finishing at an exactly .500 (winning percentage). (I totaled up the total amount of games played in a season and broke them down, distributing the total of wins and losses to all 30 teams. In other words, if you total the amount of wins for every team I preview throughout the 30-1 MLB countdown, it will equal the amount of losses tallied up by doing the same.) The bottom line is that the parity of the game of baseball has put many teams in the same boat. Most have a chance to compete and their success and failures will be determined by intangibles including clubhouse commendatory and injuries. Because of that, all we have to use to determine records before the season starts is the composition of the respective rosters, the direction the team is going and the prospects of what young players and healthy returnees are set up to help. My opinion will be different than yours and my opinion will be different than digitally generated previews.
The Toronto Blue Jays made it to the postseason for the first time since their last World Series victory in 1993. The past 22 seasons have been a struggle but the Blue Jays had managed to finish with a .500 or better record in 10 of those 22 campaigns. The building of what has become a championship caliber offensive team started in the 2012-2013 off season, when the Jays added shortstop Jose Reyes, along with pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle- none of whom are currently part of the ball club. However, after the emergence of late blooming power hitters Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, this was the first sign that the Blue Jays were looking to base their team on offense, a formula that has proven to be a wise one. This past off season, the Blue Jays made a trade that did not involve a lot of though behind it. It, quite frankly, did not need to. The Oakland Athletics dangled All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson as if he could be had. General manager Alex Anthopoulos (who has since left the organization) jumped on the opportunity. In fact, the Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest heists in years getting Donaldson from the Athletics in exchange for four players, one of whom was removed from their 40 man roster (Sean Nolin) and another was traded away to the White Sox (Brett Lawrie). Having Reyes allowed the Jays to make the deal with the Colorado Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki right before the 2015 trading deadline.
The Blue Jays most recent off season has consisted on the re-inventing of the team's pitching staff. Gone are David Price (18 wins, 5 losses, 2.45 earned run average, 225 strikeouts, just over 220 innings pitched) and Buehrle (15-8, 3.81, just under 199 innings). They will be replaced by one time Blue Jays left hand pitcher JA Happ (11-8, 3.61, 151 Ks, 72 IP) and Jesse Chavez (7-15, 4.18, 136 Ks, 157 IP). They also added reliever Drew Storen (2-2, 3.44, 29 saves, 67 Ks, 55 IP) in an off season deal with the Washington Nationals in exchange for Ben Revere. Also brought in are veteran starters Gavin Floyd and Roberto Hernandez and relievers Pat Venditte and Randy Choate. All the moves were may by new team president Mark Shapiro, who hired Ross Adkins as the team's new general manager after Anthopoulos resigned.
The Blue Jays are blessed with one of the better assembled offenses the game has seen in years. Bautista (.250 batting average, 40 home runs, 114 runs batted in, .913 on base plus slugging) and Encarnacion (.277, 39, 111, .929) were enough on their own. The addition of Donaldson (.297, 41, 123, .939), the 2015 American League Most Valuable Player, and catcher Russell Martin (.240, 23, 77, .787) is a blessing by itself. The emergence of center fielder Kevin Pillar (.278, 12, 56, .713, 25 stolen bases) and first baseman Chris Colabello (.321, 15, 54, .886) made the lineup even more potent. Tulowitzki (.280, 17, 70, .777) is hoping to be healthy enough to be around all season and the Blue Jays get left fielder Michael Saunders (just 31 at bats in 2015, 19 home runs in 2012) after missing most of last year. Toronto will go with a combination of Ryan Goins (.250, 5, 45, .768) and Devon Travis (.304, 8, 35, .859) at second base once Travis has recovered from his November shoulder surgery.
The lineup I would go with is Saunders LF, Donaldson 3B, Bautista RF, Encarnacion DH, Tulowitzki SS, Colabello 1B, Martin C, Pillar CF, Goins/ Travis 2B. Travis, in my opinion, is the better full time option as long as he proves he is healthy. The Jays also have veteran Darwin Barney to provide insurance in the infield and Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera and Junior Lake should all be in the mix with Josh Thole serving as the team's backup catcher. Domonic Brown comes in hoping that a change of scenery will get him back to being the player that hit .272 with 27 home runs in 2013. Casey Kotchman is also looking at another MLB shot.
The Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation will hinge this season on the impact of Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67, 4 starts, 27 innings pitched), who missed most of the season due to a torn ACL. However, his unprecedented return last year was a huge boast for the team and he was able to pitch in the playoffs for them. With Price no longer around, Stroman will be counted on to be the team's ace. Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13, 28 starts, 181 IP) was a great story last season after seemingly hitting a wall in Milwaukee. If he duplicates his 2015, the Jays will be okay. The addition of Happ may be one of the more underrated moves of the entire off season. The adjustments he made under Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage could have totally resurrected his career. If so, the Jays may have made a great investment even though the 3 year, $36 million contract commitment may seem like a lot for a .500 career pitcher with a slightly above 4.00 career ERA. Veteran RA Dickey (11-11, 3.91, just over 214 IP) is entering his forth season in Toronto and hopefully can gracefully provide insurance as a forth starter. The fifth spot could go to Chavez, but also look at Floyd, Drew Hutchinson (13-5, 5.57, 150 IP), Hernandez or Aaron Sanchez (7-6, 3.22, 41 games, 11 starts). I still believe in Sanchez and would like to see him get a full season as a starting pitcher.
Sanchez and Chavez may be vulnerable to the fact that they have succeeded in a relief role. With essentially one starting spot available in the rotation, unfortunately, both may not be given the attention they deserve. Storen will serve as the closer with incumbent closer Roberto Osuna (1-6, 2.48, 20 saves, 75 Ks, just under 70 innings pitched) serving as the eight inning guy. Left handers Brett Cecil (5-5, 2.48, 70 Ks, just over 54 IP), Aaron Loup (2-5, 4.46, 46 Ks, just over 42 innings), Choate, and the switch pitcher Venditte will round out what could be a deep bullpen. The Jays will have to decide if they are better with Sanchez as a late game reliever or their rotation is deeper with him as part of it.
A couple sons of former major leaguers highlight the Blue Jays top minor league players. Dwight Smith Jr could debut this season but may be better off spending one more season in the minors. Vladimir Guerrero Jr was signed this past off season, but just turned 17. Even if he is as good as his father, I cannot imagine him being close to major league ready for at least three more full MLB seasons. The Blue Jays also signed right hander Yennsy Diaz, a solid young arm that will also be a ways away from the big leagues.
The Blue Jays have a chance to be the best team in the American League if they get some solid pitching. Happ and Sanchez have a chance to be great, if Happ continues in his progression from last season and Sanchez first gets a chance to be a starting pitcher all season and second pitches as well as I think he can. That will change my overall outlook on this team. In all reality, I see the Blue Jays scoring more runs than they did last season, but giving up way more runs than they give in 2015. Stroman will be great, but I cannot expect Estrada to repeat his improbable campaign of a year ago. The American League East teams will feast off the Toronto pitchers and there are few examples of teams that are all offense that get to the postseason, let alone advance in the postseason. Las Vegas has the Blue Jays at 87 and I take the under, with a record of 84-78, second place in the American League East. However, the fact that they are ranking at 11 means they are the non-playoff team that is closest to being a playoff team. I think the Jays are that close and if they can be in the race come July, look for them to make a similar acquisition to what they did last season when they added Price.

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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #30 Philadelphia Phillies

2/18/2015

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We have now hit that time of year. Pitchers and catchers have already reported to some teams' camps and others will be over the next couple of days. Though opening day is a little ways away, baseball has started in the eyes of the die hard. The off season has come to a conclusion and the focus is on what to expect out of the upcoming series of baseball months. It also means the return of www.johnpielli.com 's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, the more controversial series of team baseball previews.
All you have to do is go to the same generic websites and read the same predictions. They all have the teams positioned the same. The teams that made the postseason last year are rewarded in the minds of the pickers and are picked to finish in the top of their respective leagues/ divisions. The teams that did not do so well in 2014 are all predicted to finish at the bottom of the division- unless they had a big off season, where in some cases, they get expectations that they cannot fulfill.
My predictions are based on how I perceive each roster looks. I have studied the 2014 MLB team, its 2014- 2015 off season, their minor league system and have come up with an overall outlook for 2015. I also use the Las Vegas over- unders to judge the amount of wins I think a team will net for the upcoming season. In some cases, my outlook is completely different from the likes of baseball prospectus (almost always is), baseball america, MLB dot com and other sites. As in past years, I am always up for the debate so I look forward to hearing from you. As always, thanks and "I'll see you on the other side."
If you follow my predictions of the Philadelphia Phillies over the past two seasons, you will see that I have had more faith in the organization than most. Two years ago, I thought they were good enough to make it to the postseason, which of course, they didn't. Last year, I saw how they could be a middle of the pack team and maybe overachieve; that did not happen either. I have a very hard time believing in a team to perform immediately whose message is "we have to rebuild." See: 2011 Mets, 2010 Astros, 2013 Marlins.
The Phillies major moves this offseason were the trades of SS Jimmy Rollins, OF Marlon Byrd and LHP Antonio Bastardo. The team will continue to look to subtract before it will look to add, which summarizes the thoughts of their 2015 season. Before the middle of this season (and maybe earlier), the team will likely have traded RHP Jonathan Papelbon, LHP Cliff Lee, 1B Ryan Howard and maybe even LHP Cole Hamels. The major additions for the Phillies have been RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Chad Billingsley and pitchers Ben Lively, Zack Eflin and Tom Windle (the three of whom were all acquired in the Rollins and Byrd deals).
The 2014 Phillies did not have a ton of hope going into the season. However, with the veteran presence of proven winners Rollins, Chase Utley, Howard, Lee and Hamels, there was a thought that 2014 could provide a last competitive rush. The injury to Lee (4-5, 3.65, 13 starts) was a dagger that the organization could have done without. What was even worse was what happened to the offense. The talk coming into the season was how this team could overachieve if the likes of Utley, Howard, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown could all stay healthy. Well... they did and it didn't make much of a difference. The Phillies finished last in the NL East with a record of 73-89- the first full season for manager Ryne Sandberg.
The pitching staff will look a lot different in 2015 and could look even more different if the Phillies decide to make a trade involving Hamels and/ or Lee. The pitcher that led the Phillies in IP, S and BF last season was none other than AJ Burnett (8-18, 4.59). He is back in Pittsburgh. Kyle Kendrick (10-13, 4.61) left as a free agent to join the Colorado Rockies. Hamels (9-9, 2.46 in 30 starts) is by far the one constant the Phillies can rely on in their rotation for 2015. I also think it would be silly is the Phillies traded Hamels for anything less than Jackie Bradley Jr AND Xander Bogaerts or Will Myers AND Andrew Cashner. You can also make a case that the Phillies would be fine keeping their ace during their rebuild. After Hamels and Lee, the Phillies are expected to use two bright spots in the second half of their 2014 season. RHP David Buchanan (6-8, 3.75 in 20 starts) and veteran Jerome Williams (6-7, 4.77 in 37 games, 11 starts for three teams) both pitched very well and are expected to return to the rotation. Williams was 4-2, 2.83 in his 9 starts with the Phillies. Harang (12-12, 3.57, 33 starts for Atlanta) is the favorite to win the number 5 spot in the rotation with Billingsley coming off the Tommy John surgery to give Harang, Williams and Buchanan a push. Miguel Gonzalez (6.75 ERA in 6 games) and Jonathan Pettibone (only 2 starts in 2014 after making 18 for the Phillies in 2013) should also be in the mix and will be the first to join the rotation of a trade is made involving a starting pitcher. Non-roster invitees Kevin Slowey and Jeanmar Gomez will be in Clearwater as well.
The bullpen is most certainly looking towards the passing of the guard. It is a matter of time before disgruntled closer Papelbon (2-3, 2.04, 39 saves in 66 games) is traded. That will open up the door for Ken "100 miles" Giles (3-1, 1.18 in 44 games, 64 Ks in under 45 IP) to become the closer. In the meantime, they do have a good mix of relievers with Jake Diekman (5-5, 3.80, 100 Ks in 71 IP), Justin De Fratus (3-1, 2.39 in 54 games) and Luis Garcia (1-0, 6.43 in 13 games). Expect more out of the 28 year old Garcia, who should be very good with additional responsibility. He pitched to a under 1.00 ERA in his two years in AAA. LHP Mario Hollands (2-2, 4.40 in 50 games) will try to become that prototypical lefty on lefty specialist with RHPs Hector Neris and Ethan Martin trying to make spots in the pen.
For the exception of Rollins and Byrd leaving via trade, little is expected to change in the Phillies lineup. However, losing Rollins leadership and Byrd's 2014 numbers (.264, 25, 85) will be tough to replace. Freddy Galvis (.176, 4, 12 in 43 games) gets his shot to play SS everyday. Offensively, he is better than his career offensive numbers but he really has to show it this season or he will be replaced. The problem is the Phillies really lack a viable replacement should Galvis struggle. Cesar Hernandez (.237, 1, 4 in 66 games) is next on the depth chart followed by NRI Chase d'Arnaud (.232 in 149 MLB ABs). Veteran Grady Sizemore (.233, 5, 27 in 112 games for Boston and Philadelphia last season) inherits the starting LF job with Darin Ruf (.235, 3, 8 in 52 games) and Kelly Dugan perhaps getting a shot to play.
Ruf, Dugan and Makiel Franco (.179 in 56 ABs) will all benefit if Howard (.223, 23, 95) is traded. Howard was healthy and hit for some power, but clearly was nowhere near the dominant offensive player he was during the Phillies NL East winning streak. Utley had a very good 2014 season (.270, 11, 78) and if he continues to stay healthy, he is expected to duplicate his career averages. Revere (.306, 2, 28, 49 SB) was solid for the team as well. If the Phillies want to surprise anybody this season, they need a big bounce back season from Brown (.235, 10, 63), who will be back in RF after playing LF in 2014. The Phillies need him to become a power guy once again, but it doesn't seem likely for him to duplicate his 27 HR 2013 season. The Phillies lineup should look something like this: Revere CF, Galvis SS, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Sizemore/ Ruf LF, Brown RF, Cody Asche (.252, 10, 46), Carlos Ruiz (.252, 6, 31). The fact that the Phillies can have as many as 6 left handed hitters in their lineup adds some value to guys like Ruf and Franco. Journeymen RH hitters Russ Canzler and Chris Nelson could be just as valuable if used the right way. Cameron Rupp is expected to be the backup catcher with Koyie Hill in camp to compete.
The Phillies may have the answer at SS down the road with 2013 1st round pick JP Crawford. Roman Quinn (who I saw play a couple years ago at Low A Lakewood) looks like a decent option down the road. He is a switch hitter who has excellent speed. Neither will be up this season. LHP Jesse Biddle had a down season in 2014 in AA, but is certainly worth watching as the season goes on. Lively, picked up in the Reds trade for Byrd, is the one to watch as I think he can be a solid 3-4 starter in the Phillies rotation for years to come. 2014 1st round pick Aaron Nola rose through the Phillies system last year and is expected to be better than Lively.
The problem I have with the 2015 Phillies is the quit and rebuild approach that GM Ruben Amaro Jr seems to be implementing. It's great for the future, but it is a sign that the Phillies will punt the 2015 season away. Even if guys like Howard and Lee have very good seasons, it is likely the Phillies would rather trade them that make a run for a wild card spot. 2015 will be as bad as it will get for the Phillies, 65-97 (under 68 1/2), last place in the NL East division.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #6 Phillies

3/26/2013

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The Phillies finished the 2012 season with an 81-81 record, while going 35-24 in their last 59 games. The Phillies had ruled the NL East for the past couple season, winning the last five titles. But, 2012 was a disappointment as they went just 33-39 in games within the division. While the teams may be on different levels, the Phillies off season was very similar to that of the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies made many moves, none considered to be "blockbuster". The Phillies addressed needs at 3B (Michael Young), OF (Ben Revere, Delmon Young), and the bullpen (Mike Adams, Chad Durbin).
The Phillies 2012 season got off to a rough start when former All Star 1B Ryan Howard and 2B Chase Utley were forced to miss the start of the season due to injuries. Many expected Utley to be back sooner than June 27th and in the meantime, ace RHP Roy Halliday went down with a significant injury. Halliday was on the DL from May 28th to July 16th. Howard made his season debut on July 7th. It was no coincidence that the Phillies played their best baseball in August and September.
The Phillies moved CF Shane Victorino and RF Hunter Pence as they gave up on their season at the end of July. They have essentially replaced them with Revere, who was acquired from Minnesota in a trade for RHP Vance Worley, and Young, who was signed to a ridiculously team friendly contract. Young will start the season on the disabled list, giving Domonic Brown a chance to play every day. Brown (.235, 5, 26 in 56 games) has gotten small samples of opportunity to play and is still thought of to be a core type player. This will be the season we either see it or see that Brown is not that type of player. Revere is a younger, better defensive version of Juan Pierre. Fans will find quickly that Pierre's 2012 season (.307, 1, 25, 37 SB in 130 games) could be a tall order for Revere to equal. However, Revere had a breakout season in 2012 (.294, 0, 32, 40 SB) and will be just 25 this year. Young could be the biggest bargain signing of the entire off season, coming off (.267, 18, 74) a good season with an even better postseason (+.300 AVG, 3 HRs).
Michael Young came over from Texas in a trade for very little. Young had a historically bad season in 2012 (.682 OPS), but is just a year removed from a .338, 11, 106 season in 2011 with 41 2Bs and 213 hits. Playing 3B could be an issue for Young, who has spent most of the past two seasons as a DH. Catcher Carlos Ruiz will start the season suspended, with SS Jimmy Rollins (.250, 23, 68, 37 SB) the lone starter from last season who played the entire season (156 games). With OF Darin Ruf starting the season in AAA to work on his defense, the Phillies could start the season with John Mayberry Jr and Laynce Nix in LF. If Delmon Young is not ready soon enough, expect Ruf to be on the big league roster sooner rather than later. I'd line the Phillies up like this: Revere CF, Utley 2B, Rollins SS, Howard 1B, M Young 3B, Brown RF, Mayberry/ Nix LF, Eric Kratz C. Delmon Young and Ruiz make the lineup much deeper and gives manager Charlie Manuel more flexibility. Freddy Galvis, Kevin Frandsen and perhaps Ender Inciarte will be important members of the team's bench, with Mayberry, Nix and Ruf playing a huge role when Delmon Young returns.
I know the Phillies have at least another year or two out of their big three of Halliday (11-8, 4.49), Cole Hamels (17-6, 3.05, 216 Ks in 215 1/3 IP) and Cliff Lee (6-9, 3.16, 207 Ks in 211 IP). Kyle Kendrick pitched well down the stretch of last season and finished 11-12, 3.90 in 37 games, 25 starts. In doing so, for the first time, Kendrick will have a spot in the rotation to start the season. John Lannan comes over as a free agent from Washington, where he was forced to spend a lot of time in the minors last year just because he had minor league options left. Lannan made 30 plus starts three out of four seasons (from 2008-2011). Top pitching prospects Jesse Biddle and Ethan Martin could get a look in 2013, but are more likely to debut in 2014.
The Phillies middle relief was atrocious in 2013. Getting the ball to closer Jonathan Papelbon (5-6, 2.44, 38 saves) seemed like an impossible task at times. Outside of Papelbon and Jeremy Horst (1.15 ERA), the Phillies had no relief pitchers pitch in over 31 IP and have an ERA less than 4.33. They should expect a bounce back season from Antonio Bastardo (2-5, 4.33 in 65 games). However, Bastardo did strike out 81 batters in 52 IP last season. Mike Adams (5-3, 3.27 in 61 games) comes over from Texas to solidify the 8th inning. Chad Durbin (4-1, 3.10 in 76 games) returns to Philadelphia after a 2 year hiatus. Bastardo and Horst will return. Phillippe Aumont (0-1, 3.68 in 18 games) and Jake Diekman (1-1, 3.95 in 32 games) will round out the bullpen. Michael Stutes is also an option.
I thought Vegas was very down on the Phillies, putting their over/ under at 81 1/2. To me, it is an easy over. Though the division will be very competitive (in my opinion, the only division with three 90+ win teams), I see the Phillies and their leadership prevailing. They will win 94 games, 2 more than the Nationals for 1st place in the NL East.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #28 Twins

3/3/2013

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Manager Ron Gardenhire had enjoyed one of the better starts to a MLB managerial career with the Minnesota Twins. Through his first 9 seasons, he finished over .500 8 times, winning 6 division titles and winning over 90 games 5 times. What got him credit as being one of the best managers in the game is the fact that he usually won with less, having success with teams that did not have a ton of star power. The last two seasons, however, have been very trying, as the Twins have lost 99 and 96 games, respectively. I do not feel Gardenhire deserves all the blame here, as the Twins' small market approach has fizzled due to a struggling farm system. Due to the fact that the Tigers remain elite, the White Sox took steps in 2012, the Indians made many moves to upgrade their team and the Royals finally going for it, the Twins will find it very tough to contend this season.
The Twins off season started with the trade of two of their starting OFs, Denard Span to the Nationals and Ben Revere to the Twins. Starting SS Alexei Casilla is now with the Baltimore Orioles organization, but other than those moves, the offense should be similar to what it was in 2012, not that bad. The same cannot be said about their pitching staff, which was among the worst in the American League last season. GM Terry Ryan made it a priority to upgrade their starting rotation the best way possible, but there are still a lot of questions.
While the focus of this team will be on the future, there is still some life in the offense. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit give the team a presence in the middle of the order. Mauer (.319, 10, 85 in 147 games) is the franchise player and is expected to be on the Twins for a long time. The same cannot be said about Morneau (.267, 19, 77 in 134 games) as he is due to be a free agent after this season. The Twins will probably look to move Morneau with the hopes of replenishing their farm system. Willingham (.260, 35, 110) is their biggest power hitter, and I can see the Twins only moving him for a substantial upgrade to the farm system. Doumit (.275, 18, 75) was as good as I expected him to be when the Twins picked him up as a free agent from Pittsburgh. Darin Mastroianni gets the chance to play CF everyday, with Chris Parmalee in RF, Pedro Florimon at SS and veteran Jamey Carroll at 2B. I would set the lineup like this Mastroianni CF, Mauer C, Morneau 1B, Willingham LF, Doumit DH, Trevor Plouffe 3B (.235, 24, 55 in 119 games), Parmalee RF, Florimon SS, Carroll 2B. Brian Dozier will backup both middle infield positions with a chance to be a starter. The lack of depth on the bench is a concern, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Mastroianni, Parmalee and even Plouffe. Injury is always a concern when it comes to Mauer and Morneau. I would expect the Twins to be pursuing some depth in the outfield and on the bench.
The problem this team had last season was its pitching, particularly the starters. Scott Diamond (12-9, 3.54) was their best starter but made just 27 starts. After Diamond's 173 IP, Brian Duensing was next on the team in IP with 109. Duensing pitched in 55 games, 11 as a starter. Only Francisco Liriano (3-10, 5.31 before he was traded to Chicago) joined Diamond and Duensing in pitching 100 or more innings (and he had 100 even). They did a good job bringing in pitchers who should provide innings for them. Vance Worley (6-9, 4.20 in 23 starts) came over in the Revere trade and free agents Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.21, 32 games, 28 starts) and Mike Pelfrey (7-13, 4.74 in 34, 33 during the 2011 season) are expected to provide said innings. Pelfrey is returning from Tommy John surgery and word is, he has been throwing the ball well. Cole De Vries (5-5, 4.11 in 16 starts) was throwing the ball well for the Twins before his season ended prematurely. Liam Hendricks is also battling for a spot in their rotation.
The bullpen is led by LHP Glen Perkins, who had 16 saves for the team last season after replacing the injured Matt Capps. Jared Burton, Alex Burnett and Duensing are the best options to set up. The Twins are hoping to get some help from veterans Rich Harden, NIck Blackburn and Rafael Perez, all in camp on minor league contracts.
As far as the farm system is concerned, expect to see RHP Kyle Gibson contributing at some point this season. Had it not been for an injury, he would already be up here. The Twins like him, Alex Meyer (obtained in the Span trade) and Trevor May (in the Revere trade). They would be happy if those three were staples in the rotation for years to come. OF Byron Buxton, their number 1 draft pick of a year ago, could be on the fast track, but it is unlikely we will see him in the big leagues this season.
It is hard to see the Twins winning a lot of games this season, especially with the talent in the AL Central. Vegas puts their over/ under at 64 1/2, which I think is very fair. I think they will finish below that though, at 62-100, last place in the AL Central. The three acquisitions for the rotation are key; if they can all pitch at their best, the team could be much better. Not playoff better, but maybe they can win 72-77 games. If so, Gardenhire should get a contract extension.

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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #17- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #7 Washington Nationals

2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #11 Toronto Blue Jays

2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #30 Philadelphia Phillies

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #6 Phillies

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #28 Twins

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