Category: Jon-singleton

2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #16 Houston Astros

3/17/2016

Parity in baseball is as strong as it has ever been. Of course, the fact that baseball plays 162 games in a season allows for any team to beat any team at any time. But, the bigger issue is the fact that the pool of top talent is spread across almost every team with few of them not in a position to contend. In the cases of those that are not, all of whom are by choice. These teams do not wish to contend right now and have a desire to be good in the future. While I am not 100% on board with that philosophy, the proof is in the pudding with the results of teams that have gone that root. Sometimes it takes years (ask the Kansas City Royals or Pittsburgh Pirates), but it does explain some of the parity that exists throughout the game. Even the best teams do not seem to have a distinct advantage over the others anymore. The San Francisco Giants have been the most successful MLB team since 2010 and they have never been considered a juggernaut, at least according to the feat of its immediate competition. Of course, there is no team in professional sports that would not take three Championships in five seasons in exchange for not being dominant.
The re-emergence of the Houston Astros is the prime example of how parity has taken the game over. The Astros started to break down their major league baseball team. After six losing seasons, and three straight 100 seasons from 2011-2013, the Astros started to see some of the fruit of their investment in their farm system. The Astros won 70 games in 2014, a 19 game increase from the hideous 2013 season. While the Astros seemed to be headed in the right direction, it seemed as if nobody was prepared for what was to happen last season. The Astros got off to a great start and had a legitimate chance to win the American League West division due to disappointing starts by the Athletics, Angels and Mariners, teams that had either been post season bound in recent years or, in the Mariners case, been predicted by many (including myself) to take the division in 2015. The Astros became a legit contender once star shortstop Carlos Correa (.279 batting average, 22 home runs, 68 runs batted in, .856 on base plus slugging) joined the squad. Left hand pitcher Dallas Kuechel (20 wins, 8 losses, 2.48 earned run average, 216 strikeouts, 232 innings pitched) emerged as the top pitcher in the American League, winning the AL Cy Young Award. Houston acquired Philadelphia Phillies closer Ken Giles (6-3, 1.80, 87 Ks, 70 IP) to solidify their bullpen, though they paid a pretty hefty price to land the flame thrower. The Astros traded former number one overall pick Mark Appel, righty Vincent Velasquez and lefty Brett Oberholtzer to the Phillies, clearly giving the Phillies some pieces to rebuild with. They then signed right hander Doug Fister (5-7, 4.19, 25 games, 15 games started) who was coming off a down season with the Washington Nationals. The Astros also retained outfielder Colby Rasmus (.238, 25, 61, .789) via the qualifying offer ($15.8 million). In addition, outfielder Carlos Gomez (.255, 12, 56, .724) and right hander Mike Fiers (7-10, 3.69, 180 Ks, just over 180 IP) return after both were acquired at the trading deadline last season from the Milwaukee Brewers. Left handed reliever Neal Cotts (1-0, 3.41, 68 games) comes over as a free agent after splitting the season between the Brewers and the Minnesota Twins.
If things are going right for Houston, the core of Correa, second baseman Jose Altuve (.313, 15, 66, .812) and outfielder George Springer (.276, 16, 41, .826) will be the center of the Astros batting order. Designated hitter Evan Gattis (.246, 27, 88, .748) may spend a little time at first base with prospect Jon Singleton (.254, 22, 83, .865 in AAA) hoping to finally cut down on the strikeouts that plagued his debut in the major leagues in 2014. Rasmus and Gomez fill out the outfield with Luis Valbuena (.224, 25, 56, .748) manning third and Jason Castro (.211, 11, 31, .648) serving as the primary backstop. The lineup I would go with goes like this: Gomez CF, Altuve 2B, Correa SS, Springer RF, Gattis DH, Valbuena 3B, Rasmus LF, Singleton 1B, Castro C.
The Astros will look to get outfielders Jake Marisnick (.236, 9, 36, .665) and Preston Tucker (.243, 13, 33, .734) some at bats and will give Rasmus, Gomez and Springer some rest. The three starters will fill in for Gattis at DH and Gattis can slide over to first to spell Singleton. Infielders Matt Duffy and Marvin Gonzalez can fill in the infield, though Correa and Altuve will probably be set to play 150-160 games. Max Stassi will be the backup catcher though he is unlikely to be ready for the start of the regular season.
The big difference in the Astros this season and last season is the presence of their starting pitchers. In addition to Keuchel, Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89, 171 Ks, just under 204 IP) will be followed by hopefully healthy and back on track Fister and Fiers. Lance McCullers Jr (6-7, 3.22, 129 Ks, just under 126 IP) has a spot in the rotation once he is healthy, though he is likely to start the season on the disabled list. In the meantime, veterans Scott Feldman and Brad Peacock are expected to fill in and should provide the team with respectable depth should there be an additional injury.
Giles gives the Astros one of the game's premium young relief pitchers. After the Phillies traded Jonathan Papelbon last season, Giles got his first taste of being a big league closer. That should suit him well as he takes over a Houston bullpen that has been in desperate need for a big time stopper. This acquisition should also benefit Luke Gregerson (7-3, 3.10, 34 saves, 59 Ks, 61 IP), a good late inning reliever who I have said for years is best suited to be an eighth inning guy and NOT a closer. Tony Sipp (3-4, 1.99, 62 Ks, just over 54 IP) had a great season as a left handed one batter only reliever, but can expand his role to face righties and perhaps pitch the 7th inning if Cotts can assert himself in that role. Right handers Will Harris (5-5, 1.90, 68 Ks, 71 IP) and Pat Neshek (3-6, 3.62, 51 Ks, just under 55 IP) give the Astros a solid but underrated bullpen with some depth for manager AJ Hinch.
The Astros may just be holding first base temporarily for their best offensive prospect AJ Reed. Reed hit 34 home runs in the minor leagues last season and is expecting to make his debut this season. Third baseman Colin Moran is also expected to debut this season and if he is ready, he could take over the hot corner from Valbuena making the latter a role player. The Astros could use some major league blood to fill out their outfield of the future, drafting Kyle Tucker (Preston's brother) and Daz Cameron (Mike's son) both in the first round of the 2015 draft. I also like Derek Fisher, a converted infielder who is now in the outfield coming off a 22 home run season in the minors. He could be a September call up. They traded away some of their top young pitching depth in the Giles trade, but look at right hander Francis Martes as somebody who can crack the rotation at some point in the season.
The Astros have a lot of intrigue because there really is no limit to how good this franchise can become. Remember, last season many had the Astros as being another year away. They could take a step back, but can also come into their own. I think their start will be as pivotal as any other team, particularly the way their division shapes up. I think the American League West is very competitive but does not have a clear cut favorite. The Astros performance last season brings their over/ under up to 85.5. I think the rest of the American League has caught on to the fact that the Astros have arrived. They will win their share of games and should be able to protect more leads with Giles leading their bullpen. However, I think they are another season away before I can consider them a team that is ready to win an American League Pennant. I have the Astros finishing at 82-80, third place in the AL West division.

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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #24 Houston Astros

2/23/2015

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We have now hit that time of year. Pitchers and catchers have already reported with position players about to report. Though opening day is a little ways away, baseball has started in the eyes of the die hard. The off season has come to a conclusion and the focus is on what to expect out of the upcoming series of baseball months. It also means the return of www.johnpielli.com 's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, the more controversial series of team baseball previews.
All you have to do is go to the same generic websites and read the same predictions. They all have the teams positioned the same. The teams that made the postseason last year are rewarded in the minds of the pickers and are picked to finish in the top of their respective leagues/ divisions. The teams that did not do so well in 2014 are all predicted to finish at the bottom of the division- unless they had a big off season, where in some cases, they get expectations that they cannot fulfill.
My predictions are based on how I perceive each roster looks. I have studied the 2014 MLB team, its 2014- 2015 off season, their minor league system and have come up with an overall outlook for 2015. I also use the Las Vegas over- unders to judge the amount of wins I think a team will net for the upcoming season. In some cases, my outlook is completely different from the likes of baseball prospectus (almost always is), baseball america, MLB dot com and other sites. As in past years, I am always up for the debate so I look forward to hearing from you. As always, thanks and "I'll see you on the other side."
The Houston Astros are the present example of what the complete rebuilding effort looks like. The Astros started moving players in 2010 and 2011, leaving themselves completely gutted for the 2012 season. They fired manager Brad Mills in 2012, though the performance of the team was not his fault. Bo Porter was hired for the 2013 season and by the end of last year, he too was out. Once again, a team that was not ready to compete blaming the manager for their woes. GM Jeff Luthnow may say the key is to have the right guy behind the bench. Perhaps thats why he hired AJ Hinch away from the San Diego Padres scouting department, a place he had spent the past three plus years after managing the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The fact that the team managed to improve by 19 games in 2014 to 2013 shows some progress made by the organization. However, in 2013 the team was 51-111, so the Astros had to try very hard to play that bad of baseball. The 70 win version had a lot to do with three major blessings. Jose Altuve won the AL Batting Title and led the league in hits and stolen bases. DH Chris Carter hit a career high 37 home runs and the team got some consistent starting pitching led by Dallas Keuchel (12-9, 2.93, 29 starts, 200 IP), Collin McHugh (11-9, 2.73, 25 starts, 157 Ks in less than 155 IP) and Scott Feldman (8-12, 3.74, 29 starts). The improvement of Altuve, Carter and the starting pitching was the exact reason the Astros improved by 19 games in 2014.
I really like how the Astros went out and upgraded themselves in 4 positions offensively. They signed free agent SS Jed Lowrie (.249, 6, 50- coming off a .290, 15, 75 over the last two seasons in Oakland) to a three year deal. Then they signed Colby Rasmus (.225, 18, 40 in 115 games after 2 straight 20 plus HR seasons in Toronto) to a one year deal replacing Dexter Fowler, who they traded to the Chicago Cubs for 3B Luis Valbuena (.249, 6, 51) and RHP Dan Straily (10-8, 3.96 in 27 starts in 2013 for Oakland). Then, they acquired OF Evan Gattis (.263, 22, 52 as a catcher in 2014) from the Braves in a deal centered around pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz.
In spite of these acquisitions, the key to the Astros offensively will center around two of their top offensive prospects- both of whom got their first chance to play in the big league last season. OF George Springer (.231, 20, 51 in just 78 games) clearly has 40 HR power and should become that type of hitter assuming he stays healthy. 1B Jon Singleton (.168, 13, 44, 134 Ks in 310 ABs) had as bad of a rookie campaign as could have been imagined. He was given the chance to play in spite of his woes because the Astros knew they had nothing to play for. This season, they have given themselves some other options should Singleton struggle or not make the team out of camp. Gattis can play 1B, so can last year's 3B Matt Dominguez (.215, 6, 57). Backup catcher Hank Conger (.221, 4, 25 with Angels in 2014) is a suitable starting candidate with starter Jason Castro (.222, 14, 56 after a .276, 18, 76 2013 season) an option to DH. That can allow for Carter, who was primarily a 1B until becoming full time DH in 2014, to play 1B. The bottom line is that Gattis, Valbuena, Conger and OF Jake Marisnick (.249, 3, 19 with Miami and Houston) give the Astros options to have others start at 1B they did not have last season.
The 2014 Astros lineup should look something like this: Altuve 2B (.341, 7, 59, 56 SB), Lowrie SS, Springer RF, Carter DH (.227, 37, 88), Gattis LF, Valbuena 3B, Castro C, Rasmus CF, Singleton 1B or Dominguez (1B), Marisnick (CF) or Conger (C). Marisnick would start in CF, with Rasmus moving to left and Gattis to 1B. Conger would catch, like I said before, with Castro moving to DH and Carter to 1B. If I were Houston, I wouldn't guarantee Singleton a spot as his upside is too valuable to waste struggling again in the big leagues. Have him start the season in AAA and bring him up when he is ready. Having Dominguez, Marisnick and Conger on the bench, along with Alex Presley and either Marwin Gonzalez or Jonathan Villar (and LJ Hoes if Singleton starts the season in AAA) gives the Astros a quality MLB bench.
The Astros starting five will be led by Keuchel, with an AL leading 5 CGs and a Gold Glove Award, as well as McHugh and Feldman. Straily has a good shot of being the 4th starter, with the 5th spot going to be between Brett Oberholtzer (5-13, 4.29), Brad Peacock (4-9, 4.72) and free agent RHP Roberto Hernandez (8-11, 4.10 with Phillies and Dodgers). A couple of other options for the Astros are former top pitching prospect Alex White and RHP Sam Deduno, who came over from the Twins last season. Though 2013 number one overall pick Mark Appel should make his MLB debut this season, he will probably not come up until he is pitching very well in the minor leagues and his Super Two status is not an issue.
The Astros bullpen has added the likes of veterans Luke Gregerson (5-5, 2.12, 72 games for Oakland) and Pat Neshek (7-2, 1.87, 71 games for St Louis) to join veteran Chad Qualls (1-5, 3.33, 19 saves, 58 games), Josh Fields (4-6, 4.45, 54 games) and LHP Tony Sipp (4-3, 3.38, 56 games). Fields has closer stuff and had 70 Ks in less than 55 innings last season, however, I think the Astros would be best suited to use Qualls in that capacity- at least at the start of the season. Qualls has the experience pitching in that role and though he is an average MLB closer at best, the unknowns of Gregerson and/ or Neshek being able to close games has to be understood. I would rather go with the givens of Gregerson and Neshek as very good to great setup men over wasting one of them as a terrible closer. Plus, Qualls is more expendable and can give way to Fields if he becomes ready to take the reigns. And how about if Lance McCullers, Jr is pitching lights out and he joins the bullpen in August or September? Maybe he close for the last two months of the season.
Appel and SS Carlos Correa should both be up this season, but simply to get a taste of big league action. The signing of Lowrie may slow down the eagerness of the Astros to make Correa their everyday SS, though it is not impossible to see the Astros use Lowrie at 3B or as a utility player is he doesn't bounce back from his down 2014 in Oakland. McCullers is a long shot to play for the Astros this season.
The Astros seem to be headed in the right direction. I think they will improve in 2015, but it seems tough to envision a run for an AL Wild Card berth. Barring a Texas 2014 like injury collapse, I still think the Astros will finish in last place in the AL West. There record will be 76-86. a 6 game improvement over 2014 and a game and a half above Las Vegas prediction of 74 1/2. Wait until you see who I have finishing just one game above them...

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2014 batters with fewest ABs per K (K'ing less than every 3 ABs)

9/19/2014

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Over the last ten seasons or so, the rate that MLB players have been striking out has gotten as high as it has ever been. However, the 2014 season has actually shown some progress. It looks like 2014 will be the first season since 2007 without a player striking out over 200 times. At this very moment (through 9/17/2014), Nationals SS Ian Desmond leads the Majors in Ks with 178. Mike Trout of the Angels is currently tied with Orioles 1B Chris Davis with 173 Ks to lead the AL. Of course, Davis will not strike out again in 2014 as he is currently serving a suspension for the use of amphetamines. With less than 10 games to go, it is unlikely that either Desmond or Trout will strike out more than 185 or 190 times this season. The last time MLB had a league leader in strikeouts that was less than 200 was in 2007 when Ryan Howard led with 199. Since 2000, the league has had a leader with at least 182 Ks every year for the exception of one season. If Desmond can strike out less than 4 times the rest of the season, or if Trout Ks less than 9 times in the last week, this could be considered a victory in the battle of the strikeout.
Before Preston Wilson struck out 187 times and Mo Vaughn 181 in 2000, only three players led their respective leagues in strikeouts with 180 or more in a particular year. Bobby Bonds had 187 in 1969 and 189 in 1970 and Mike Schmidt had 180 1975. Other than that, there was no evidence of a player striking out that many times. Since 2000, there has only been one season where a player has led MLB in Ks with less than 182- Adam Dunn with 168 in 2005.
I have more of an issue with a high K percentage than the total amount of strikeouts a player has a season. If all power numbers are up and the player has a high BA and OPS, the total times a player strikes out in a season does not matter as much. The list I have put together (using my own research- so, please use the comment section to add a player I may have missed) indicates the players who strike out more often per at bat than anybody in baseball this year. I used the criteria of a minimum of 50 Ks and the 25 players I have listed all strike out once every 2 and 3 at bats.

(as of 9/17/2014)
Player Team ABs Ks K%
Javier Baez Cubs 170 77 2.2077
Mike Olt Cubs 215 94 2.2872
Jon Singleton Astros 297 126 2.3571
Juan Francisco Blue Jays 284 114 2.4912
David Ross Red Sox 146 57 2.5614
George Springer Astros 295 114 2.5877
Jarrod Saltalamacchia Marlins 352 136 2.5882
Tyler Flowers White Sox 397 126 2.5948
Chris Davis Orioles 450 173 2.6012
Alex Avila Tigers 372 143 2.6014
Jason Kubel Twins 156 59 2.6440
Brandon Hicks Giants 204 77 2.6494
Danny Espinosa Nationals 316 116 2.7241
Jeff Mathis Marlins 167 61 2.7377
Mike Zunino Mariners 405 147 2.7551
Anthony Recker Mets 160 58 2.8166
Adam Dunn White Sox/Athletics 399 144 2.7708
Colby Rasmus Blue Jays 345 123 2.8048
Chris Carter Astros 476 169 2.8166
Brandon Barnes Rockies 269 94 2.8617
Drew Stubbs Indians 368 125 2.9440
Oswaldo Arcia Twins 333 113 2.9469
Scott Van Slyke Dodgers 192 65 2.9538
Josh Willingham Twins/Royals 290 98 2.9592
Hector Sanchez Giants 163 55 2.9636

A couple things I found interesting after putting this list together. Eight of the 25 players mentioned are catchers. This has something to do with the fact that offensive production has been down on catchers over the past three seasons. And perhaps the fact that teams are valuing the ability to call a game and defense over being an offensive MLB player, which is evident with the strikeout rates of some of the backup catchers. A couple of teams with up and coming offensive players are near the top of the list, with guys like Javier Baez, Mike Olt and Jon Singleton- with George Springer a little further down. A total of 18 out of the 30 teams had a player on this list striking out once every less than 3 at bats. The Astros, with Singleton, Springer and Chris Carter, were the only team to have three players in the top 25. The Twins did as well, but neither WIllingham nor Kubel is on the team anymore. The Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Marlins and White Sox had 2 each, with Adam Dunn now playing for Oakland and Miami having both parts of their catching tandem in the top 25.
Another thing that needs to be stated is the fact that marginal players cannot strike out at this rate. Guys like Brandon Hicks and Jason Kubel are going to have difficulty finding MLB jobs and Brandon Barnes, Scott Van Slyke and Danny Espinosa may never be MLB regulars (again) because of this.

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2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #16 Houston Astros

2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #24 Houston Astros

2014 batters with fewest ABs per K (K'ing less than every 3 ABs)

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