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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #20 Rays

3/11/2013

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the darling of MLB since they dropped the "Devil" out of their name. They have done a great job of developing young players who have made the team not only competitive, but up there with the likes of the best teams in the AL East division. They have made the playoffs 3 of the last 5 seasons, and managed to go 90-72 last season under manager Joe Maddon. General Manager Andrew Friedman has been shrewd in his decisions, deciding to rely on the influx of talent the Rays have in the minor leagues. That point was driven home by the off season trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals. The deal brought over prized OF prospect Wil Myers as well as pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. Yes, the future looks brighter and it can be said the Rays have a chance to get the best in this trade. But, added to the free agent losses of CF BJ Upton and Carlos Pena, how much of a step back do the Rays take in 2013?
I think there should be mixed feelings about this team going into this season. The loss of Shields, Upton and Pena does hurt. Jeff Keppinger performed very well as a role player last season and he signed a more lucrative deal with the White Sox. The position players the Rays have brought in have a lot of upside, but to this point, are considered disappointments. Free agent signing James Loney, who has had RBI seasons of 90, 90 and 88 in his career, sloped to a .249, 9, 41 line in 144 games for the Dodgers and Red Sox last season. Yunel Escobar, acquired in a trade from Miami through Toronto, hit just .253, 9, 51 in 145 games last season. They signed Kelly Johnson, who dropped to .225, 16, 55 in 142 games for Toronto last year. He is expected to platoon with Ryan Roberts, who finished with a .236, 12, 52 line after being traded from Arizona to Tampa last season. The Rays are depending on Loney to replace the power Carlos Pena took with him to Houston (19 HR despite a .197 average). With Ben Zobrist (.270, 20, 74) moving from 2B to RF full time and Desmond Jennings (.246, 13, 47, 31 SBs) moving to CF to replace Upton (.246, 28, 78), the Rays will be essentially looking for Roberts and Johnson to replace the run production Upton leaves behind. However, the Rays get a healthy Evan Longoria for a full season after being held to 74 games last year.
Matt Joyce (.241, 17, 49), Luke Scott (.229, 14, 55) and Jose Molina (.223, 8, 32) round out the Rays everyday lineup. I'd lineup them like this: Jennings CF, Loney 1B, Zobrist RF, Longoria 3B, Joyce LF, Roberts/ Johnson 2B, Scott DH, Molina C, Escobar SS. The Rays will be counting on Myers (.314, 37, 109 in the minors last season),SS Hak Ju Lee and even Raul Mondesi Jr to come up and make a big impact. Rather than count on guys like Escobar, Loney and Johnson to overachieve, the Rays would be more in favor of the former.
The Rays do bring back the AL Cy Young Award winner in David Price (20-5, 2.56). In spite of the loss of Shields, the Rays still have a good rotation with Matt Moore (11-11, 3.81 in 31 starts), Jeremy Hellickson (10-11, 3.10 in 31 starts) and Alex Cobb (11-9, 4.03 in 23 starts) returning to the rotation. 2004 first round draft pick (#4 overall) Jeff Niemann returns after making just 8 starts in 2012. Odorizzi, Chris Archer and the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez) give the team some options in regards to depth. Hernandez can perhaps eat some innings until Odorizzi and Archer are ready to make an impact.
Fernando Rodney had the greatest statistical season for a closer since Dennis Eckersley in 1990. In 76 games, Rodney pitched to a 0.60 ERA (5 ER in 74 2/3 IP) and finished with 48 saves. I agree that Rodney has established himself as the closer he was supposed to be years back with Detroit and LA, but he cannot be expected to duplicate that season. Losses of JP Howell (1-0, 3.04 in 55 games), Burke Badenhop (3-2, 3.03 in 66 games) and Davis (3-0, 2.43 in 54 games) will hurt. However, Joel Peralta (2-6, 3.73 in 76 games) and Jake McGee (5-2, 1.95 in 69 games) leaving the chance the pen can be effective. Perhaps the other player to be named later, Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) can provide some stability in the pen.
My issues with this team lie with the fact they have taken a step back for the present to improve the future. The future will tell how good of a decision it was to sacrifice the 2013 season to have this "dynasty". In my opinion, Vegas is very kind to the Rays, giving them an over/under of 86. Unless Myers comes up early and dominates and the team gets some surprises in the bullpen, I see the Rays taking a major step back this season. I predict a 79-83 season, 5th place in the AL East. Maybe this will be the step back that propels the Tampa Bay Rays to the forefront of the American League for year to come.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #21 White Sox

3/10/2013

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The Chicago White Sox were the best story last season that got no attention. The Nationals, Orioles and Athletics got all the press, and rightly so as all three teams made the postseason in 2012. The White Sox did not, but gave the eventual AL Pennant winning Tigers a run for their money before falling short. The White Sox finished the season 85-77 under new manager Robin Ventura. However, from August 30th on, the team lost 20 of their last 33 games. The team was 72-57 at the time, 25 games over .500. After some struggles, the team regained their spot from 8/30 at 81-66 before losing 11 of their last 15 to finish the season.
Ventura certainly did more than expected in his first year; not only as a MLB manager, but in the new generation of MLB managers who get jobs with absolutely no experience. The White Sox were not expected to contend but got help from pitchers Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05, 192 K in 192 IP) and former NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy (11-12, 3.37, 194 K in 219 IP) as well as a bounce back season from DH Adam Dunn (.204, 41, 96, 105 BBs, 222 Ks). Phillip Humber threw a no hitter, and the White Sox found themselves as buyers as the trade deadline approached, acquiring 3B Kevin Youkilis, LHP Francisco Liriano, RHP Brett Myers, OF Dwayne Wise and INF Orlando Hudson. The Sox were one of the more active teams trying to add players for the push in all of baseball. Even more underrated was the performance of RF Alex Rios, who hit .304, 25, 91 after hitting .227, 13, 44 last season.
The White Sox locked up Sale (5 yrs, $32.5 million) and Peavy (2 yrs, $29 million) to anchor a pitching staff that includes Galvin Floyd (12-11, 4.29) and John Danks (3-4, 5.70 in 9 starts; 26-33 starts each of the prior five seasons). The fifth starter spot is expected to go to either Jose Quintana (6-6, 3.76 in 25 games, 22 starts) or original 2012 closer turned starter Hector Santiago (4-1, 3.33, 4 saves in 42 games, 4 starts).
The bullpen added the strong arm of former Mets farmhand Matt Lindstrom (1-0, 2.46 in 46 games for Baltimore and Diamondbacks last season). Lindstrom provides depth to the pen despite pitching for his 6th team in the last 5 years. Addison Reed returns as the closer despite his 4.75 ERA to go with his 29 saves. Matt Thornton (4-10, 3.46 in 74 games) and Jesse Crain (2-3, 2.44 in 51 games) are joined by Lindstrom to provide some good 7th and 8th inning options. I would expect the three of them plus Nate Jones (8-0, 2.39 in 65 games) to all challenge Reed for the closer job this season.
The offense lost a major cog when AJ Pierzynski (.277, 27, 77) left to join the Rangers. Youkilis (.235, 19, 60 for Boston and Chicago) left to play for the Yankees. Jeff Keppinger signed a deal to be the starting 3B after a .326, 9, 40 season for Tampa Bay in 2012. While Tyler Flowers takes over behind the plate after his .213, 7, 13 season in 52 games, every other regular will be returning this season. Paul Konerko (.298, 28, 75) is still their franchise player with Alexei Ramirez (.265, 9, 73) at SS and 24 year old Dayan Viciedo (.255, 25, 78) in LF. Alejandro De Aza (.282, 9, 50) led the team with 26 SB and Gordon Beckham (.234, 16, 60) has found an everyday position while still trying to find himself offensively. If line them up like this: De Aza CF, Keppinger 3B, Konerko 1B, Dunn DH, Rios RF, Ramirez SS, Viciedo LF, Flowers C, Beckham 2B. I'd keep an eye out for OF prospect Jared Mitchell and middle INF prospect Carlos Sanchez, as both could make an impact this season. Sanchez puts a little pressure on Beckham to produce early in the season as the White Sox may be waiting for him to bloom.
I think the Sox are in a tough spot this season. In my opinion, Detroit, Kansas City and Cleveland all have improved, while Chicago lost offense behind the plate and have a questionable closer. I think they will do ok, as the Vegas over/ under of 80 1/2 is not that far off. Vegas picked them to have a losing season, and so do I. I see a 79-83 mark, forth place in the AL Central.

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External options to hold down 3B until A-Rod returns

12/3/2012

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Today the news broke of the need for New York Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez to undergo surgery for a torn labrum in his left hip that will keep him out of action for 4-6 months after he has the operation in early January. Initially, thoughts would involve the Yankees staying in house, perhaps using Eduardo Nunez there until A-Rod is ready. A logical platoon with Nunez could include free agent 3B Eric Chavez, who was done a very good job in his two seasons as a role player with the Yankees. Others have suggested bringing back another recent Yankees infielder, Jayson Nix, who is also a free agent.

Some have brought up names like Jeff Keppinger and even Kevin Youkilis, as the talk has already started in regards to who will play 3B for the Yankees next season. While I will suggest the Yankees bring back Chavez to play some 3B and DH, I think they should also bring in a right handed bat, with some upside to platoon and possibly play every day if they are performing at their best. Out of the 6 players I mention, four have to be traded for and two are free agents. It is safe to say the further the list the player is, the more it will take for the player to be traded for.

6. Juan Uribe, LAD: Juan has done a terrible job since leaving the 2010 World Series Champion Giants to sign a 3 year, $21 million deal with the Dodgers. From the Dodgers perspective, they plan on playing Hanley Ramirez at 3B and Dee Gordon at SS, making Uribe expendable. Uribe (33 yrs old) will not cost much in regards to compensation and the Dodgers may pick up some of the $7 million owe to him. Negatives include his .191, 2, 17 line last season in 66 games and 162 ABs. He hit 24 HR in 2010, so he could be a low cost, high reward type player.
5. Placido Polanco, FA: Polanco (37) has finished his 4 year deal in Philadelphia; the last season not being so great for him. His .257, 2, 19 in 90 games and 303 ABs lost him the 3B job by seasons end. As a free agent, he is expected to command much less than the $6+ million he received last season. He hit .298, 6, 52 for the Phillies in 2010. His impact in the clubhouse has been known to be very good, something any team can use.
4. Brandon Inge, FA: Inge (35) split last season between Detroit and Oakland and had a little bit of a resurgence. He hit .218, 12, 54 in 83 games, 303 AB in 2012, making $5.5 million. As a free agent, like Polanco, would require much less than that. He hit .247, 13, 70 in 2010 with Detroit. Always known as a good defender, he has the ability to provide a little more power than Polanco.
3. Willie Bloomquist, Ari: Bloomquist (35) is on the second year of a two year deal with Arizona that will pay him a combined $3.8 million. He does not have the power potential Inge and Uribe could possess, but Bloomquist could play a very good role as a utility player once Rodriguez returns. He also hit .302, 0, 23 in 80 games and 324 ABs, batting several times as a leadoff or number two hitter for a competitive Diamondbacks team. His acquisition would have to be complimentary to a Chavez re-signing, as Bloomquist is a more complete player than Nix.
2. Alberto Callaspo, LAA: Callaspo may or may not be available, but if he is, the Yankees should be one of the first teams to inquire. Callaspo may be the starting 3B once again in 2013 for the Angels. The Angels could go with Mark Trumbo or make another move for a 3B. Callaspo (29) hit .252, 10, 53 in 138 games, 457 ABs. He made $3.15 million and is 4th year arbitration eligible for the 2013 season. The Yankees would also have to see if they have something of value to convince the Angels to make this trade.
1. Chris Johnson, Ari: Johnson (28) may not be available at all. It the Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton to Texas, they may want top prospects Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar as part of the trade, freeing up Johnson to be moved. Johnson hit .281, 15, 76 for the Diamondbacks and Astros last season. He had a very good run as a rookie in 2010 before taking a step back in 2011. Ideally, he would be the best fit for the Yankees. Of course, it would take more than in a deal for Callaspo, but would be more worth it.

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2012 Black Friday value list for the Mets

11/23/2012

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Obviously, this offseason, more than the previous two, has left New York Mets fans completely in the dark as far as their offseason moves are concerned. The stalling in the negotiations with 3B David Wright and RHP RA Dickey have given fans the feeling it will be a long offseason. GM Sandy Alderson has stated, in the few times he has addressed offseason moves, that the Mets are more likely to use the trade market as opposed to free agency to address the most important needs. So, once again, it seems the Mets may be interested in potentially prying players off the "dollar rack". (Which, by the way, they did not even try to do last offseason.) So, while this is no attempt on my part to say this should overtake the priority of adding more proven and sound players, I once again, have listed a group of players who are lower risk, higher reward type players who can give the Mets something if they perform to their greatest capabilities.
If the Mets are to compete in 2013, they need to address needs in the outfield, catcher and in the bullpen. That has to be done in addition to these potential bargains if the Mets want to compete in any way. Just as a reminder, here is my article I wrote on the day after Thanksgiving last year.

2011 BLACK FRIDAY VALUE LIST FOR THE METS

    Not to stear this discussion in another direction, but the Mets have to address the Wright situation (I prefer to see him extended) as well as set themselves with major league calibur players in the outfield and behind the plate. That, if it is addressed at all, should be done through trades and possibly signing a player below market value.
    Jeff Keppinger had a breakout season as a utility player for the Tampa Bay Rays last season. He hit .325 (125-385), 9, 40 playing 2B, 3B and SS. Though he made his MLB debut with the Mets, he may command a little more money than others, but he could be had for less than $4 million being he made $1.53 million last season.
    Yuniesky Betancourt is coming off a down season with Kansas City where he did not play every day. Prior to that, he was an everyday SS for KC in 2010 and Milwaukee in 2011. He made just $2 million last season, and can likely be had for that or less for 2013. To me, he is an upgrade over Ronny Cedeno and can put up some decent numbers at SS or 2B.
    Brandon Lyon may have gotten himself a decent contract with his strong finish in Toronto. He was 4-2, 3.10 in 67 games, striking out 63 batters in 61 innings for the Astros and Blue Jays. He is coming off a 3 year, $15 million contract with Houston that did not necessarily work out. He should be had on a 1 year contract paying less than he made annually the last three seasons.
    Juan Cruz has been an enigma on so many levels. He has had some good seasons, struggled in other occasions, but ultimately has not been able to stick with any one organization. He was 1-1, 2.78 in 43 games, striking out 33 in 35 2/3 IP with Pittsburgh in 2012. However, he was released after the Pirates fell out of contention and was not picked up by anybody afterwards. He made $1.25 million last year, and perhaps could sign a deal for around the same for 2013.
    The first three players I mentioned should draw interest from other teams but could be in play for the Mets. This next group of players will be risks in some way because they have struggled to retain form the had years ago. But they can all be had on either minor league contracts or one year deals with low base salaries similar to what Alderson has been dishing out. Grady Sizemore missed the entire 2012 season sitting on a $5 million deal he got from Cleveland. Nobody will come near that for this season. Perhaps a minor league or $1+ million offer for the 2013 season may entice Sizemore. Will he return to the 2006-1008 version when he was one of the top CFs in the AL? Probably not, but he would be a good player to take a chance on for that money.
    Marlon Byrd is a free agent coming off a tough three years after signing for $15 million with the Cubs. After a 3-43 start in Chicago, he finished off hitting .210, 1, 9 with the Cubs and Red Sox. He is expected to be available on a minor league contract with some incentives.
    Chris Snyder looked like a solid all around catcher during his time in Arizona. He has struggled the last two seasons in Pittsburgh and Houston, finishing off a .176 (39-221), 7, 24 season with the Astros. While he is not the answer as a starting catcher at this point, his upside should make a minor league offer worth considering from both sides.
    Xavier Nady still has a lot of fans from his cameo with the Mets in 2006. Though he is not the same player, he hit better with the Giants in the second half of the season after a rough start in Washington. Overall, he hit .184 (28-152), 4, 13 for the season and would be worth a minor league contract with a spring invite. Ryan Spilborghs had some success in Colorado for several seasons, in spite of not playing in the major leagues last season. Playing in AAA for Texas and Cleveland, Spilborghs hit .288 (131-455), 9, 68 and could be a cheap replacement for Scott Hairston. Perhaps a Nady/ Spilborghs battle in spring training can allow the Mets to use that money to fill other needs. (This is assuming the Mets plan to address their OF needs as mentioned earlier.)
    Among relievers who can be had for little, Todd Coffey is coming off a disappointing and injured season in LA. He was signed for $1 million, and was 1-0, 4.66 in 23 games, striking out 18 batters in 19 1/3 IP while missing most of the season. Hong-Chih Kuo went to spring training with Seattle last season, but did not pitch in 2012. His upside includes his All Star 2010 season in LA, making him an option as a minor league invite. Hisanori Takahashi was terrible in his two seasons with the Angels, finishing off last season in Pittsburgh. He proved to be nowhere near worth the $8 million, two year contract he got after he left the Mets. However, when he signed a minor league deal with the Mets he shined in 2010, both as a starter and reliever. Why not give him a shot on a similar deal?
    This article was not meant to get Mets fans excited. In my opinion though, moves like this will give fans some hope. The task at hand has been set for Alderson, who I feel must put his stamp on this team. None of the moves I mentioned will have any impact on any better moves the Mets hopefully will make. But if the Mets can have for little to nothing, Betancourt, Nady/ Spilborghs, Snyder, Coffey, Kuo and Takahashi along with the possibility of Sizemore, the Mets will still be able to use what little resources they have to address the outfield, catcher and bullpen.

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Can the Rays pitching make up for its lack of offense?

7/2/2012

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    The Tampa Bay Rays were a preseason favorite of many, including myself, to make the AL postseason. The team has made the postseason three of the last four years and has one of the best starting rotations in the entire game. Though the pitching staff, led by David Price, has been very good for the most part, they currently sit at 41-38 in the AL East, good for forth place in the division.
    Losing star 3B Evan Longoria has made it very noticible how bad of an offensive team they are. They do not have a regular player hitting anywhere near .300, as injured OF Matt Joyce leads the team with his .279 AVG and SS Elliot Johnson is next hitting just .268. (Longoria was hitting .329 when he went on the DL after 82 ABs and reserve Jeff Keppinger has hit .322 in 115 ABs.) This team gets a lot of credit for their play over the last four seasons, and they deserve that. But, if they are going to have any chance to make the AL playoffs, let alone make postseason noise, they need to have players in place that can produce better than the ones who have played this season. Guys like Ben Zobrist, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings and Carlos Pena have all underperformed and the rest of the lineup probably would not start on a lot of other teams.
    It is amazing to me that they traded two catchers, John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach this offseason and left the starting job to Jose Molina. They have gotten what was to be expected offensively from him, a .198 AVG with 4 HR and 14 RBI in 126 ABs. Johnson is not an offensive player and neither is 3B/2B Sean Rodriguez, who is hitting .211, 5, 22. Luke Scott was brought in to be a power hitter and despite 9 HR, is hitting just .207. Hideki Matsui has hit just .177 since being signed as a free agent during the season, making a lot of GMs look good for not signing him in the offseason.
    I understand that the players I mentioned in the last paragraph will represent three spots in the team's lineup as soon as Longoria and Joyce return. This is why this is more an indictment on Zobrist, Jennings, Upton and Pena. Pena has never been much of an average hitter and has 11 HRs, but is hitting .199. (he hit less than .200 in 2010 when he last played for the Rays.) Zobrist has been on a steady decline since last season, and currently is hitting .256, 10, 32. Jennings is .238, 5, 31 and Upton is not making a good case for his impending free agency with his .240, 5, 26 line.
    They say good pitching beats good hitting. And thats the only way the Rays stay in this race this season. The lack of offense has effected them now worse than ever. Should they attempt to acquire a bat such as Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin or Alfonso Soriano? If they don't want to throw this season away, they should acquire a slugger immediately.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #20 Rays

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #21 White Sox

External options to hold down 3B until A-Rod returns

2012 Black Friday value list for the Mets

Can the Rays pitching make up for its lack of offense?

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