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2016 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #20 Minnesota Twins

3/6/2016

One of the things that many learned by following the 2015 baseball season is that you simply cannot predict baseball. The odds of the Kansas City Royals returning to the World Series once again were favorable, considering they were the best American League team in the regular season. However, while the Washington Nationals possessed the best roster of players going into the start of the season, they ended up missing out on the postseason. The same could be said about the Detroit Tigers, who inexplicably finished in last place in the American League Central. A series of teams were thought to be at least another year away from contention, but it did not stop them as they made postseason appearances. The Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and Houston Astros proved to us that the future really is now.
Another team that stood out during what seemed to be a lengthy rebuild is the Minnesota Twins. Longtime manager Ron Gardenhire was let go after the 2014 season and replaced with Hall of Famer Paul Molitor. The Twins were certainly considered to be in a transition phase with a slew of potential young stars on the horizon. Under Molitor's leadership, the Twins played extremely well perhaps overachieving by finishing at 83-79, good enough for second place in the AL Central. Unfortunately, expectations have to rise for a team like this, but many signs point towards the Twins possessing an improved roster led by a couple of young players who may be on the brink of becoming stars.
Veteran outfielder Torii Hunter announced his retirement shortly after the season completed. There was no doubt that Hunter impacted the young players so it is understood how his presence will be missed. The Twins signed Korean first baseman/ designated hitter Byung Ho Park with the hopes he can add a little depth to the middle of the order. The Twins traded outfielder Aaron Hicks (.256 batting average, 11 home runs, 33 runs batted in, .721 on base plus slugging) to the New York Yankees in exchange for catcher John Ryan Murphy (.277, 3, 14, .734).
The acquisition of Park was interesting. The former Korean star hit 53 home runs last season and 52 the season before, but those numbers are not expected to translate in the major leagues. Of course, if he is half the power hitter he was in Korea, the Twins will welcome his presence in their lineup. Star in the making Miguel Sano (.2269, 18, 52, .916) will move from designated hitter to right field to allow for Park's bat to be in the lineup. Sano's original position of third base is currently occupied by Trevor Plouffe (.244, 22, 86, .742) which forced Sano into the DH role last season. First baseman Joe Mauer (.265, 10, 66, .718) played in a career high 158 games last season which puts Park in a unique spot of serving likely as only a DH. The Twins will also work in the likes of Kennys Vargas, who has some power that has developed at each level of the minor leagues. If he emerges as a presence, the Twins will have a log jam.
This season will mark the first full one for top MLB prospect Byron Buxton. Despite a meager .206 batting average and .576 OPS in 46 MLB games last season, Buxton looks like a star in the making, a great combination of power and speed though the Twins do not have a legitimate center fielder in the event Buxton either struggles or gets hurt. Left fielder Eddie Rosario (.267, 13, 50, .748) can play center and will if either would occur. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 home runs in 2014 but played in just 19 games at the major league level last season. Arcia struggled in the minors, hitting just .199 in 79 games for Triple- A Rochester.
One of the more underrated players in all of major league baseball is second baseman Brian Dozier (.236, 28, 77, .751). The All Star has now hit 51 home runs over the past two seasons. Veteran Kurt Suzuki (.240, 5, 50, .610) will handle the catching with Murphy getting an opportunity to earn time. Murphy, Sano and Mauer will join Vargas backing up Park as a DH. Shortstop Eduardo Escobar (.262, 12, 58, .754) rounds out the projected lineup, one that should look like this: Buxton CF, Dozier 2B, Mauer 1B, Sano RF, Park DH, Plouffe 3B, Rosario LF, Suzuki/ Murphy C, Escobar SS. The Twins possess one of the deepest benches in all of baseball with 23 year old German born outfielder Max Kepler in the mix, joined by Vargas, Arcia, Murphy and Danny Santana, the latter looking to bounce back after a tough second MLB season.
The Twins have the makings of a respectable starting rotation. Ervin Santana (7 wins, 5 losses, 4.00 earned run average, 17 starts) gets to pitch a full season after serving an 80 game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs. Phil Hughes (11-9, 4.40, just over 155 innings) needs to a relapse of his breakout 2014 campaign where he was a true ace. Right hander Ricky Nolasco (5-2, 6.75 ERA in 9 starts) has made the Twins look bad after signing a four- year, $48 million contract prior to the 2014 season. The Twins would be happy to get anything out of him this season. Left hander Tommy Milone (9-5, 3.92) and right hander Tyler Duffey (5-1, 3.10, 53 strikeouts in 58 innings pitched) round out the rotation.
Glen Perkins (3-5, 3.32, 32 saves) has been consistent serving as the team's closer the past several seasons. However, he digressed last season as his strikeout rate went down and he gave up nine home runs, the most since he was a starting pitcher in 2009. Right handers Kevin Jepsen (3-6, 2.33 in a league leading 75 games) was great last season and Ryan Pressly (3-2, 2.93, 27 games) pitched very well in a small sample. The Twins have little depth after that though, with young pitchers Casey Fien, JR Graham and Trevor May (8-9, 4.00, 110 Ks, just less than 115 IP) looking to emerge from the group. May could become a solid late game option in what will be his first season as a full time reliever. Left handers Fernando Abad and Dan Runzler have a good chance of making the team as Abad was great a couple of years ago and Runzler at one time being highly touted by the San Francisco Giants.
The Twins rotation will get a boost once right hander Jose Berrios is ready. Berrios averaged over a strikeout an inning and is expected to join the team before the All Star break. Left hander Stephen Gonsalves looks to be a dark horse candidate to make the team at some point in the season. Perhaps he is more of a September call-up, but he is worth reading into. Of course, Buxton is going to get a lot of attention, but so should Kepler. Kepler looks like a future batting champion and will likely walk more than he strikes out.
The Twins have a solid lineup but could have some suspect pitching. I find it hard to put their starting rotation up with the others in the American League Central division let alone the rest of the American League. In order for the Twins to compete for a postseason spot, the Twins need a 2014 season from Hughes and Santana and a lot more out of Nolasco as they have gotten in the past two seasons. I feel that Perkins is on his way down; I look at May as a possibility of being the Twins closer before the All Star break. Las Vegas has the Twins over/ under at 77.5. I think the Twins can finish higher than that, at 79-83, forth place in the AL Central division.

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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #25 Minnesota Twins

2/23/2015

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We have now hit that time of year. Pitchers and catchers have already reported to some teams' camps and others will be over the next couple of days. Though opening day is a little ways away, baseball has started in the eyes of the die hard. The off season has come to a conclusion and the focus is on what to expect out of the upcoming series of baseball months. It also means the return of www.johnpielli.com 's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, the more controversial series of team baseball previews.
All you have to do is go to the same generic websites and read the same predictions. They all have the teams positioned the same. The teams that made the postseason last year are rewarded in the minds of the pickers and are picked to finish in the top of their respective leagues/ divisions. The teams that did not do so well in 2014 are all predicted to finish at the bottom of the division- unless they had a big off season, where in some cases, they get expectations that they cannot fulfill.
My predictions are based on how I perceive each roster looks. I have studied the 2014 MLB team, its 2014- 2015 off season, their minor league system and have come up with an overall outlook for 2015. I also use the Las Vegas over- unders to judge the amount of wins I think a team will net for the upcoming season. In some cases, my outlook is completely different from the likes of baseball prospectus (almost always is), baseball america, MLB dot com and other sites. As in past years, I am always up for the debate so I look forward to hearing from you. As always, thanks and "I'll see you on the other side."
The Minnesota Twins have been an organization trying to rebuild itself since 2011. 2010 was their last winning season and it has been understood why the team has struggled to compete with the top teams of the American League. The Twins have been rebuilding since then, but because of that have some very good young players and seem to be going in the right direction.
In spite of 4 straight losing seasons, a man considered one of the better managers in the game of baseball was Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire. A well respected baseball mind; if there was a list of top managers a team would like to have oversea a rebuild, I am sure Gardenhire would rank among the top of the list. However, in the eyes of GM Terry Ryan, a different voice was needed. Gardenhire was let go after 13 seasons as Twins manager, even though the results of the past four seasons seemed to be more of a result of the players on the roster as opposed to the way they were being led. During his first 9 seasons at the helm, Gardenhire led the Twins to a winning season in 8 of them. In some cases, especially the 2010 season, the expectations were not in the air for the team to do as well as they did. Kudos for Gardenhire not taking a position within the organization, a sign he agrees with my assessment that he was given a raw deal.
The Twins finished last year with a record of 70-92. Hall of Famer and former Twins DH Paul Molitor takes over for his first season as a big league manager. He is joined by free agent RHP pitcher Ervin Santana and former Twins star OF Torii Hunter. The rest of the team returns for another season and is expected to improve with some of the expected young talent on the horizon. 3B Miguel Sano missed all of 2014 because of Tommy John surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of the season. OF Byron Buxton will probably start the coming season in AAA, but should see significant time in the bigs this season.
The Twins made a big push to improve their starting pitching last off season. They signed Phil Hughes to a three year contact and Hughes responded with a great season that got him a 2 year extension. Hughes went 16-10, 3.52 with just less than 210 IP, 186 Ks and just 16 walks. The same could not be said about the Twins other starting pitching additions. Ricky Nolasco (6-12, 5.38, 27 starts) was terrible after signing a 4 year, $48 million deal. Kevin Correia was 5-13, 4.94 in 23 starts before he was traded and Mike Pelfrey was 0-3, 7.99 in 5 starts. Adding Santana (14-10, 3.95, 31 starts, 196 IP) as a free agent from Atlanta gives the team a good one-two with Hughes. RHP Kyle Gibson (13-12, 4.47, 32 starts) emerged as a dependable starter in his first full season. This leaves Nolasco, signed before 2014 to be the ace, as the number 4 starter, something that should alleviate some pressure from the pitcher. Adding LHP Tommy Milone (6-4, 4.19, 21 starts for Athletics and Twins) at the trading deadline last year could be a smart move down the road. He will compete with Pelfrey and young pitchers Trevor May and Alex Meyer for the 5th spot in the rotation.
Pelfrey, the former Mets 1st round draft pick, is an interesting thought for this coming season. Groin, elbow and shoulder injuries that cost him most of the 2014 season seem to be a thing of the past and reports are his arm strength has returned to the way it was a couple years ago. I can see him having a bounce back season and if his arm strength is back, I like his chances of making the Twins rotation.
The Twins bullpen is led by All Star Glen Perkins (4-3, 65, 34 saves) and LHP Brian Duensing (3-3. 3.31, 62 games). RHP Jared Burton (3-5, 4.36 in 68 games) was one of the go-to relievers for Gardenhire last season. He became a free agent and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. RHPs Casey Fien (5-6, 3.98, 73 games) and Ryan Pressly (2-0, 2.86, 15 games) will be part of the pen as well as LHP Caleb Thielbar (2-1, 3.40, 54 games). RHP Tim Stauffer (6-2, 3.53, 44 games, 3 starts) comes over from the Padres and has a good chance of becoming one of Molitor's go-to relievers. Stauffer has proven the ability to start, which has hurt his chances of becoming a good reliever. Perhaps pitching for the Twins, a place that does not have an extra spot in the starting rotation, can allow for Stauffer to emerge as an 8th inning guy.
My Twins starting lineup would feature both top prospects Sano and Buxton. It is unlikely to happen, but when both join the Twins batting order, they should be able to score some runs. While Buxton had a very good 2013 season split between low A and high A (.322, 15, 85, 20 2Bs, 18 3Bs, 57 SB, 119 RS)- he was injured for most of 2014 (.240, 4, 16 in 30 games) for Fort Myers- playing in just 1 game for AA New Britain. He is likely to start the season in the minors with the Twins likely to allow Buxton's play to determine when he comes up to the bigs. Sano, who hit 35 HR in 2013 and 32 in 2012, also has not played a game in AAA. Because of this, it may be where he starts the season. The main reason has to do with incumbent 3B Trevor Plouffe (.258, 14, 80, 40 2B) in the mix. Playing Sano would likely force Plouffe to the bench, something the Twins may not be prepared to do. Perhaps a good spring from Sano can lead to Plouffe being dealt.
Hunter coming home after a 7 year hiatus from the Twins gives the offense a little more punch. I looked at Joe Mauer having a big 2014 playing 1B full time for the first time in his career. It didn't work out that way (.277, 4, 55 in 120 games)- certainly not a down season for a big league ballplayer, but for Mauer's standards (a three time batting champion, .319 career hitter moving out from behind the dish full time). I would expect him to hit for a higher batting average if he is healthy. In addition to Plouffe, 2B Brian Dozier (.242, 23, 71) and SS Danny Santana (.319, 7, 40, 20 SB) bring out the best in the Twins lineup. Santana moving from CF to SS clears room for Buxton, who like I said, hope is playing there opening day. In the meantime, Aaron Hicks (.215, 1, 18 in 69 games) will play CF. Oswaldo Arcia (.231, 20, 57) will be playing RF with Kennys Vargas (.274, 9, 38 in 53 games) getting the biggest shot to be the everyday DH. With Sano at 3B, perhaps Plouffe becomes the full time DH. My Twins lineup looks like this: Santana SS, Hunter RF, Mauer 1B, Plouffe DH, Sano 3B, Arcia LF, Dozier 2B, Kurt Suzuki (.288, 3, 61), Buxton CF. Until the top prospects are up, just sub Vargas for Sano at DH with Plouffe at 3B and Hicks in CF for Buxton.
One time top Braves prospect Jordan Schafer (.238, 1, 15 in 104 games) is a good 4th OF. He may be able to take some playing time away from Hicks. Eduardo Escobar (.275, 6, 37) will back up Santana at SS and serve as an alternative if Santana cannot man the position. Eduardo Nunez (.250, 4, 24) continues to have a world of talent that we have yet to see in the major leagues. Josmil Pinto has some power (7 HRs in 169 ABs in 2014) and will serve as Suzuki's backup. Just like last year, my hopes are that utility infielder Doug Bernier, a guest on the Passed Ball Show, can make the team as a backup middle infielder. His ability to play SS is valuable, as it is in Escobar and Nunez. Unfortunately, all three of them will not break camp with the Twins.
I do think there is some promise in Minnesota. The starting pitching will be better than it has been in the past several seasons, especially if they can get bounce backs from Nolasco and Pelfrey. Maybe Buxton and Sano can have an impact this season. My guess is they will both rise to stardom in 2016. I see enough in place for the Twins to improve 4 games from their 2014 campaign, finishing 74-88 in Molitor's first season as a big league manager. Vegas had them tapped for 70 1/2, so I am advocating the over. Despite this improvement, the Twins will still finish last in the AL Central.

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Recent MLB players to steal 2nd, 3rd and home in the same inning

7/26/2014

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24 years ago today, Milwaukee Brewers infielder/ DH Paul Molitor stole 2nd base, 3rd and home in the same inning. While the feat itself is not considered uncommon, it is still not something that is seen too often in the game today. Though steals of home happen more often than they get credit for, players seldom attempt the straight steal of home. Because of that, I thought 1987 could have been the last time a player stole three straight bases in the same inning. (Willie Mays Hayes stole three straight bases in the movie Major League which was recorded in 1994.)
Thanks to Baseball Almanac, I found the list of every player to have accomplished the feat. Not surprised to see that Honus Wagner and Ty Cobb each did it 4 times. Only two other players, Max Carey and Jackie Tavener, had done it more than once. Overall, there have been 50 occasions where a player has stolen three bases in a single inning. Just twice was it recorded in a year prior to 1900. In fact, it has been done twice in the American League and 24 times in the National League. Some greats to have done it include Rod Carew, Pete Rose, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins and Joe Jackson. As expected, of the 50 times the feat had been accomplished, 39 of them were recorded in the year of 1928 or earlier.
The most interesting fact I noticed about this feat is that out of the 11 times it has happened since 1928, 5 of the instances were AFTER Molitor did it on the date in 1987. So, that means it happened 39 times from 1899-1928, 6 times from 1929-1987 and 5 times from 1988-now. The longest amount of time that passed between such an occurrence was from the years of 1941 (Don Kolloway) and 1969 (Carew).
Since Molitor on July 26, 1987, here are the more recent players to have stolen 2nd, 3rd and home in the same inning:
9/9/1989- Devon White, Toronto Blue Jays
5/12/1996- Chris Stynes, Kansas City Royals
6/30/1996- Eric Young Sr, Colorado Rockies
5/12/2009- Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies
7/1/2011- Dee Gordon, Los Angeles Dodgers
Of course, not all players to steal three bases in an inning did it the conventional way of three conventional steals. Some of the occurrences are on double steals of both 3B and home which some can say does not count the same way. But, in the books, it is still recorded the same way.

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Reasons Tony Gwynn should be in a category by himself from the years of 1940 on

6/17/2014

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Over the past 24 hours, baseball and sports shows have spent a lot of time discussing the playing career of Hall of Fame OF Tony Gwynn, who sadly passed away on Monday at the age of 54. While much has been covered and I would be simply be repeating, I still do not think Gwynn gets the respect for what he accomplished as a baseball player. Based on his amount of career hits (3141- which rank him 19th all time), many baseball analysts and fans put him in a category with a series of other players. I see him in a more profound category than that. How about "the best pure hitter since Ted Williams."
The natural answer to that statement is to expect that it is simply an exaggeration. When somebody dies, it is natural for the living to put the recently deceased on a pedestal. While many have taken the time to remember Tony's impact on MLB as well as the city of San Diego, a lot has also been said about his use of smokeless tobacco and how it was likely one of the causes of the cancer that took his life. I think it is a shame that few have looked at his accomplishments and given him the credit he deserves. When Gwynn left this earth, he knew he was one of the better pure hitters of his generation. Perhaps even he did not know he was a once in a generation player. In fact, there has not been a better pure hitter since Ted Williams played from 1939-1961.
The sabermetrics community has changed what is deemed good in the game of baseball. The saberers tell players, "Don't swing the bat" and you will be considered a good ballplayer. Players now a days get rewarded for hitting .220 and striking out 150 times for not swinging a bat and taking more walks. They get rewarded with a contract and stay around in the major leagues just because of their on base percentage. What many would not see in Tony Gwynn by simply looking at his stats was his "hit first" mentality which led to his high career batting average. Though he did have a keen eye on the strike zone, his thought was to always look for a pitch to hit. Something a player is looked down upon in the game today.
Of course, one thing that stands out about the career of Tony Gwynn is the fact that he barely struck out. In 10,232 plate appearances, he struck out just 434 times. You had to go back to the days of Williams and Joe DiMaggio to see a player strikeout at such a low rate.
His career .388 OBP gets some credit from the saber community, but not for the popular reason. Gwynn hit himself to his career OBP, which happens to be the 112th all time. Outside of his 82 walk 1987 season, his highest career total was 59 in 1984. He walked 760 times in his 19 year career, an average of 40 times a season. He averaged just 23 strikeouts a season, so the conclusion can be made that Gwynn hit his way on base and took pride in making contact. That is what makes his career batting average so impressive.
Gwynn hit .3382 for his career. That ranks in a tie for 18th all time in MLB history. Gwynn is tied with Jesse Burkett and Napoleon Lajoie for the 18th-19th and 20th highest batting averages in the history of major league baseball. That does not seem like a big deal. But look at the players who rank ahead of him. Take Ted Williams (.3444- tied to 7th all time) out of the equation and there is not another player that ranks in the top 20 all time averages that played passed the year 1939! Lou Gehrig (.3401- 16th all time) retired during the 1939 season. 6 players in the top 20 (Rogers Hornsby, Lefty O'Doul, Babe Ruth, Bill Terry, George Sisler and Harry Heilmann) retired between the year of 1930-1936. Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker stopped playing after the 1928 season. Shoeless Joe Jackson was banned for life after the 1920 season. Napoleon Lajoie retired after the 1916 season. Willie Keeler after 1910. 4 players in the top 20 stopped playing from 1900-1905 (Billy Hamilton, Jesse Burkett, Dan Brouthers and Ed Delahanty). Dave Orr and Pete Browing stopped playing before 1900.
If that does not put Gwynn in a category by himself, I do not know what else will. Where is the player that compiled a .338+ career batting average since 1961? And other than Williams, where is that player that compiled a .338+ career batting average since 1940? That player does not exist. The problem is that we judge a baseball player's playing career based on home runs. Now, because of the use of PEDs in the game, even some of the all time home run hitters are not getting the credit they deserve. Perhaps the difficulty of hitting for such a high career average is something we now take for granted. Because of that, we lump Gwynn in the same category as Paul Moltor, Cal Ripken, Dave Winfield, Derek Jeter and others who finished with around the same career hits. Yes, players like Rod Carew (.3279) and Wade Boggs (.3278) should get nearly as much credit as Gwynn, but in my opinion, the prior 4 mentioned are not nearly as accompilshed hitters as Gwynn was.

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If every team can have only one Hall of Famer, who would it be? (NL version)

1/25/2014

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I was inspired by a question posed on one of the baseball pages yesterday, thinking about how most, if not all MLB teams that have Hall of Famers that represented their organizations likely have that one player that is their all time player. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants and others can say that there were more than one player that can be spoken about as their all time player. There are many ways this can be done. Should I include pitchers or just position players? I think it will create a better debate if we include pitchers on this list as well. I will first mention every existing franchise right now, including the Braves when they were in Boston and Milwaukee, the Athletics when they were in Philadelphia, the Orioles when they were in St Louis, the Twins when they were in Washington, the Rangers when they were in Washington and the Nationals when they were in Montreal. This will lead for a great debate and remember, only one player can represent each franchise.
Atlanta Braves: The Braves have had their share of Hall of Famers, including Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, who will be enshrined this season. Eddie Matthews was dominant and Chipper Jones should be in on the first ballot. It is a close race between Hank Aaron and Warren Spahn. Spahn was the greatest left handed pitcher to ever pitch in the game. But he ranks behind many of the other top pitchers and was not an immortal. Aaron was an immortal. Not just because of his 755 HRs, but because of where he ranks in all the other offensive categories. Aaron is in the discussion of the top ten offensive players to ever play in the history of the game. Atlanta Braves: Hank Aaron
Washington Nationals (Montreal Expos): This comes down to the two players who made the Hall after starring with the Expos. Andre Dawson had some very good seasons, but there were several outfielders who were as good. Few catchers were in the same as Gary Carter. The answer to the question of why Carter went into the Hall as an Expo is because he was the greatest player they ever had. The same could not be said about the Mets. It also helped that he played with the Expos longer. Washington Nationals (Montreal Expos): Gary Carter
New York Mets: Not much of a debate here. Many Hall of Fame players played for the Mets, but few were known as Mets. Gary Carter would be the second choice, but Seaver is called "the franchise" for a reason. New York Mets: Tom Seaver
Philadelphia Phillies: Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton would get the nod if we were talking about the top Phillies HOF player after 1950 though Robin Roberts and Richie Ashburn would get some consideration. But in my opinion, I think it is a no brainer to choose from the list of Chuck Klein, Pete Alexander and Ed Delahanty. Klein had five of the most dominant consecutive seasons to start a career ever. Alexander managed to win 190 games in his first 8 big league seasons. But to me, Delahanty gets the nod. Some may dispute the fact that his career started in the late 1880s, but he hit .347 for his career. He hit over .400 three times. And based on the grey ink test, he was a top player in the entire National League. Philadelphia Phillies: Ed Delahanty
Miami Marlins (Florida Marlins): Andre Dawson missed out in a close race in Montreal (Washington). He gets the nod in Miami because of default. He is the only Hall of Fame player to put on a Marlins uniform. Miami Marlins (Florida Marlins): Andre Dawson
St Louis Cardinals: Many players made the Hall of Fame after starring for the Cardinals. None stand out like Rogers Hornsby and Stan Musial. The Cardinals fans would choose Musial by a landslide, as he spent his entire 22 year career with the team. Hornsby was dominant in the 1920s and was the first National League star. Hornsby hit .358 for his career, .359 in a Cardinals uniform. While I was leaning towards Hornsby, Musial did hit .331, finished with 3630 career hits, the highest total in NL history until 1985. He also hit 475 HRs, won 3 NL MVPs and 3 World Series titles. St Louis Cardinals: Stan Musial
Milwaukee Brewers (Seattle Pilots): One guy stands out in the history of the Brewers and that is Robin Yount. Paul Molitor had a great career, but spent his last several seasons with other organizations. I don't think this one is close. Milwaukee Brewers (Seattle Pilots): Robin Yount
Cincinnati Reds: This is an interesting choice because players like Frank Robinson, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Ernie Lombardi could all make a case to be the one. Bench, based on power numbers, is the greatest offensive catcher in the Hall of Fame today. Morgan is one of the top second basemen to ever play the game. Should I go with Bench because of his longevity? Morgan gets consideration even though he only played 8 seasons with the Reds, as those were by far the best he had in his career. I am going with Robinson based on his ten seasons with the Reds. Only once in those 10 seasons did he hit less than 29 HR and drive in less than 83 runs. He won a ROY and MVP, three times leading the NL in OPS. He was the start of the Big Red Machine. Cincinnati Reds: Frank Robinson
Chicago Cubs: While Billy Williams, Ferguson Jenkins (guest on Passed Ball Show) and others have their place in the team's history, there is only one "Mr. Cub." Chicago Cubs: Ernie Banks
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are an interesting choice. Guys like Willie Stargell, Paul Waner and even Pie Traynor and Arky Vaughan deserve consideration. To me, it comes down to Roberto Clemente and Honus Wagner. While Wagner played, he was considered the best player in the entire league. Clemente was one of the most special players to ever play in this game. This is a very close race, but in the end, I go with Wagner based on where he ranked in the entire game. In the dead ball era, there were few better players in the game. Pittsburgh Pirates: Honus Wagner
Los Angeles Dodgers (Brooklyn Dodgers): The Dodgers, in my opinion, have the biggest debate among their Hall of Famers. They have had several great players, but no all timers. I think a case can be made that Jackie Robinson could hold the title, but he only played 10 seasons. The same applies to Sandy Koufax. Dazzy Vance pitched 18 seasons for Brooklyn and was the 1924 NL MVP. But Don Sutton won 233 games for the team. While Robinson was the most popular and remembered player for the Dodgers during his time, Duke Snider was among the best in the entire sport. Snider wins by the narrowest of margins. Los Angeles Dodgers (Brooklyn Dodgers): Duke Snider
San Francisco Giants (New York Giants): It is a two horse race. Christi Mathewson and Willie Mays. Barry Bonds has immortal numbers, but may not get into the Hall. Willie McCovey was a terrific hitter. I thought it was a no brainer to take Mays, until I broke down Mathewson's career. He won 372 of his 373 games wearing a Giants uniform. I cannot ignore his numbers, which include an ERA of 2.13 for his career. Those who say it was because of the dead ball era are right except he led the league in ERA 5 times, WHIP 4 times, K/BB ratio 9 times, completed 465 games and threw 78 shutouts. I take Mathewson in an upset of public opinion. San Francisco Giants (New York Giants): Christy Mathewson
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are the only current team in MLB to have never had a future Hall of Fame player play for them. Todd Helton is an interesting candidate as he becomes eligible in five years. Larry Walker is a solid candidate, but is having difficulty gaining traction from the BBWAA. Colorado Rockies: none
Arizona Diamondbacks: Roberto Alomar becomes the second player to have the honor of being the Hall of Famer for two different teams (Nolan Ryan). He gets the technicality for being the only Hall of Famer to put on a Diamondbacks uniform. That should change next season when Randy Johnson is expected to be in inducted. Oddly enough, Johnson will actually take the honor for both the Diamondbacks and the Seattle Mariners. Arizona Diamondbacks: Roberto Alomar
San Diego Padres: Not much to say here, but the best player to ever put on a San Diego Padres uniform takes an easy win in this one. San Diego Padres: Tony Gwynn

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Out of the 12 expansion era HOF candidates, the most deserving of the call

11/4/2013

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The expansion era committee of the Baseball Hall of Fame announced their selections for nomination for Baseball's Hall of Fame. Obviously separate from the BBWAA voting which will take place next January, the expansion era committee, consisting of 15 members including Hall of Fame players and managers, executives and others added 12 players, managers and executives eligible in a special election this December. Within the committee, if any of the nominees receive more than 75 percent of the vote, they will join the BBWAA selections on Hall of Fame weekend in July.
The committee, consisting of Hall of Famers Tommy Lasorda, Phil Niekro, Paul Molitor, White Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf and others, selected 4 managers, 6 players, an owner and a union leader this year. The expansion era represents the years of 1973 and later. The golden era (1947-1972) will be voted on next year and the pre-integration era (1871-1946) will be voted on the following year. Managers Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre and Billy Martin, players Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Dan Quisenberry, Ted Simmons and Dave Parker as well as Yankees owner George Steinbrenner and former MLBPA head Marvin Miller. Martin, Quisenberry, Steinbrenner and Miller would be inducted posthumously.
If I had a vote, I would actually vote for 5 of the 12. I think Cox and LaRussa are clear Hall of Famers, who deserve to be in. I think Miller should go in for what he did for the players association and for free agency and the abolishment of the reserve clause. I also think Steinbrenner needs to go in because of how his philosophy represented the most important thing that all teams stride for. Plus he was the owner during the Yankees last series of success after the team had an eleven year postseason drought. (Though he witnessed himself a fifteen year one). However, out of the six players up for nomination, I would only vote for one. That player is Ted Simmons, who (as I have written about before) has career stats that rank among the greatest offensive catchers to ever play the game.
I left out Torre and Martin. I think Torre could get in, not only for what he did as manager of the Yankees from 1996-2007, but for what he did as a player. He is a borderline Hall of Fame player who is probably a borderline Hall of Fame manager. His success with the Yankees was not matched by his experiences with the Mets, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers. However, I would not object to Joe Torre getting in. Martin had success wherever he managed, even with the Rangers, where he managed the team to their first ever second place finish. He finished first with the Yankees, Twins, Athletics and Tigers. What could hold him back is the fact that he never stayed in the same place for too long.
I like Concepcion as a player and absolutely think he was an intracle part of the Big Red Machine, but simply do not think he is a Hall of Famer. I would not object to John getting in but he was a slightly above .500 pitcher who was seldom a top pitcher in his league. His 288 wins are impressive and he did have some very good seasons in LA and NY. Quisenberry was good and dominant for a while, but I just do not think he did it for long enough. Parker and Garvey were very good, but I would like to see Al Oliver get in before either of them get in. Oliver hit over .300 and had 2743 hits and did so without the opportunity of finishing his career as a DH due to collusion.
Once again, my choices would be Cox, LaRussa, Miller, Steinbrenner and Simmons. I would put Torre, Martin, Parker and John on the borderline and out, then leave out Garvey and Concepcion. I think this was one of the better set of selections the Veterans Committee has ever come up with as I feel that only two nominees that I feel are absolutely not Hall of Famers, Concepcion and Quisenberry. I would not be surprised to see any of the others in, if not this year, but in the future. Hopefully those selected will someday join Oliver, as well as Alan Trammell, Gil Hodges and Vern Stephens; all of whom belong in Baseball's Hall of Fame.

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Why Al Oliver belongs in Baseball's Hall of Fame

7/25/2013

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During the past week, I had the opportunity to interview long time MLB OF/1B Al Oliver. Al was a very consistent player over the course of his 18 seasons, hitting .303 for his career, with 2743 hits, 529 2Bs, 219 HRs and 1326 RBIs. He has part of the 1971 World Series Champion Pittsburgh Pirates team as well as NL East Champion Pirates teams in 1970, 1972, 1974 and 1975. He also played in the 1985 ALCS with the Toronto Blue Jays. While those numbers were solid, they may not merit entry into Baseball's Hall of Fame.
Though Oliver was never considered a big time power hitter, he was a constant during the Pirates run of NL East titles in the early to mid 1970s. Originally a first baseman, he was moved to center field, where played between Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell. After Clemente's tragic passing on New Year's Eve of 1972/1973, Dave Parker became a solid run producer and one of the top right fielders in the game. His numbers were consistent, if not dominant during that time as he finished 2nd in the 1970 NL Rookie of the Year voting, made 3 All Star teams and finished 7th in the NL MLP voting during his 10 seasons in Pittsburgh.
However, it was Oliver's next 6 seasons that put him in elite company. After the 1977 season, he was involved in the 12 player, 4 team trade which put him in Texas. He would hit over .300 in all 4 of his seasons with the Rangers, equaling his .300+ seasons with the Pirates. He hit .319, 19, 117 in 1980 with 43 2Bs and 204 hits, scoring 96 runs. He slugged in the high .400s for his first three seasons in Texas, with 1981 being the strike shortened season. Outside of having Bobby Bonds as a teammate in 1978, he was the Rangers star player and a 2 time All Star. He was traded to the Montreal Expos before the 1982 season, where he hit 22 HRs and led the NL with a .331 average, 109 RBIs, 204 hits, 43 2Bs and 317 total bases. He finished 3rd in the NL MVP voting. He became the first player in MLB history to have a 200 hit, 100 RBI season in both the American and National Leagues.
Oliver played through a shoulder injury during his time in Montreal, which effected his defense. Known as a solid defensive player, his defense suffered and in turn, he started to become a platoon player in 1984. He split that season with Philadelphia and San Francisco playing in just 119 games, the least games he played in a full MLB season (1981 was the strike shortened season where the most games a player played in was 109). He still managed to hit .301 (.298 for the Phillies and .312 for the Giants). The next season was split between Los Angeles and Toronto, where he hit a career low .252, but was 3-8 with 3 RBI in the ALCS against Kansas City.
One of the most unfair events occurred during the 1980s. Owners chose to collude against the players in order to drive down salaries. Oliver was not offered a contract by anybody, including the Blue Jays for the 1986 season. This ended his career prematurely, one that had a total of 2743 hits. A healthy Al Oliver was not given an incentive laden contract; not even a spring training invite. Hall of Fame consideration is given to players who's career is shortened due to injury (Sandy Koufax). At age 38, Oliver was forced out of baseball.
With his struggles defensively, Oliver could have DHed. Paul Molitor spent the last 8 years of his career in that role, finishing with 3318 hits. 130 hits in each of two more seasons would have put Oliver over the magical number. When Oliver was eligible for the Hall of Fame vote, he received just 19 votes, 4.3%. Because he received less than 5%, he was removed from the ballot for the following season. While players who were colluded against received a substantial sum in damages in the class action lawsuit, there is no repaying for time lost. Hopefully the veterans committee will consider Al Oliver the next time contemporary players are eligible for voting in, which I believe is the year after next. It would be deserving for a player who put up his numbers to have a chance at enshrinement. At the very least, it should be put up to vote.

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What % of the games best designated hitters actually DH(ed)

1/22/2013

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    Most know that Ron Bloomberg was the first DH in the history of MLB when he batted for the Yankees in 1973. But few know that the designated hitter was originally not used close to the way it is used now. American League teams looked at it as a way to get somebody up there that was a better hitter than a pitcher. In other words, most teams would set up their regular lineup 1-8, with the DH batting ninth. The DH originally consisted of a team's best pinch hitter and that batter would be guaranteed three or four ABs. Obviously, teams were quick to use the extra batter to their advantage, with veteran players getting a couple of extra seasons by not playing the field.
    The first major player to embrace the role was Hal McRae. McRae was entering the prime of his career and may not have not had the career success had it not been for the move. Some of the greats that happened to be playing from 1973 on took some advantage such as Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Al Kaline and Hank Aaron. While MLB Network's Prime 9 did a solid job in breaking down the best DHs in the history of the game, I decided it was time to figure out which players had the highest percentage of games played as a designated hitter. It is not fair to include Robinson, Killebrew, Kaline and Aaron in the discussion since they did not have as much of an opportunity to just hit. However, Robinson hit as a DH in 358 of his 2808 games played, which came out to 12.75%. Of the players I have chosen to compare, Robinson would rank 21st on my list.
    It is no secret that players come up with the intention of being a full time DH now as opposed to before. Brian Downing was an example of a player who was insulted by the move. So it is no surprise that David Ortiz was the highest percentage of games played at DH with the minimum total games played requirement of 1236. Though the list is unofficial, here is what I came up with.
Player        GP     nonDH      DH       percentage
1. David Ortiz     1832       257      1575        85.97%
2. Hal McRae      2084       516      1568        75.24%
3. Edgar Martinez 2055      592      1463       71.19%
4. Harold Baines    2830      1061     1769       62.51%
5. Frank Thomas   2322       971      1351       58.18%
6. Don Baylor        2292       970      1322       57.68%
7. Chili Davis         2436      1186     1250       51.31%
8. Paul Molitor       2683      1495     1188       44.28%
9. Hideki Matsui     1236       692       544       44.01%
10. Cecil Fielder     1470       915       555       37.76%
11. Brian Downing  2344      1460       884       37.71%
12. Jim Thome      2543      1599       944       37.12%
13. Reggie Jackson 2820      2102       718       25.46%
14. Vladimir Guerrero 2147    1608      539       25.10%
15. Dave Parker     2466        1887      579       23.48%
16. Juan Gonzalez   1689        1311      378      22.38%
17. Cecil Cooper     1896        1475      421      22.20%
18. Rafael Palmeiro 2831        2351      480      19.96%
19. Dave Winfield    2973        2479      494      16.62%
20. Albert Belle       1539        1311      228      14.81%
    Interesting parts of this list were players like Winfield, Parker and Thome who seem like they DHed more games than they did. However, Winfield and Parker were among the best OFs in the game during their prime. The all time percentage of games DHed will always be a more recent thing as many of the older DHs either were in the last couple of years of their career or did not stick around for a long time. With guys like Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Billy Butler and Travis Hafner being more DH only players, I am curious to see what percentage of DHed games those players end up with. As far as Bloomberg is concerned, he played in 461 career games, 239 as a DH, which came out to a percentage of 51.84%. If he qualified, he would have ranked 6th between Baylor and Davis.

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Comparing the numbers: George Scott VS Cecil Cooper

6/25/2012

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It is not very often that two players that are traded for one another turn out to have very similar careers. The Red Sox already had 1B/ 3B George Scott when they traded him to the Brewers in a ten player trade in 1971. Cecil Cooper came up with the Red Sox and played in the 1975 World Series. In 1976, the Brewers sent Scott back to the Red Sox in exchange for Cooper. While Cooper had a longer and more effective career with the Brewers, Scott was the more accomplished power hitter.

Bernie Carbo also rejoined the Red Sox in 1976 in the trade that sent Scott back to Boston and Cooper to Milwaukee. Scott started his career in 1966 with the Red Sox and stayed there until 1971. He played for the Brewers from 1972-1976, before playing for the Red Sox from 1977-1979 until he was traded to the Royals. Known as a power hitter, Scott hit .268 for his career with 271 HR and 1051 RBI. He finished his career with 1992 hits, 306 2B and an OPS of .767. He drew 699 walks and struck out 1412 times.

Cooper went on to have a very good career for the Brewers. He started his career in 1971 with the Red Sox and stayed until the trade in 1976. He spent the rest of his years (1977-1987) with Milwaukee. He managed to hit .298 with 241 HR and 1125 RBI. He had 2192 hits, 415 2B and finished with a .803 OPS. While he had only 448 walks, he only struck out 911 times.

Though Scott was more of a home run hitter, there is little other comparison. Cooper was still young when he played for Boston and they moved him for the more accomplished Scott. The Brewers got the best part of this trade as Cooper was a franchise type player. He was a little underrated since he was in the shadow of Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor.

Trading Cooper was an example of the Red Sox not being patient. Perhaps they thought Cooper would never be able to handle the pressures of playing for Boston. He sure proved he could play for Milwaukee. Though Scott had a decent run with the Red Sox the first time, he was not the force the Red Sox thought they were getting. He led the AL with 36 HR and 109 RBI in 1977, and though Boston thought it was a sign of things to come, it was not. He would hit 12 HR for the Red Sox in 1978 and 12 more for the Red Sox, Royals and Yankees in 1979 before hanging it up. No question the Brewers won the trade. And Cooper turned out to be the better overall player.

George Scott. Picture courtesy of claremontshows.com

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If every team can have only one Hall of Famer, who would it be? (NL version)

Out of the 12 expansion era HOF candidates, the most deserving of the call

Why Al Oliver belongs in Baseball's Hall of Fame

What % of the games best designated hitters actually DH(ed)

Comparing the numbers: George Scott VS Cecil Cooper

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