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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #23- Milwaukee Brewers

2/26/2017

Chris Carter led the National League in home runs last season with 41. He also had his highest on base plus slugging for his career as well as set career highs in runs scored (84) and runs batted in (94). Outside of their franchise player, Ryan Braun, the next highest total of home runs on the team was 13 with one of those players, Jonathan Lucroy, traded at the deadline last season. The Brewers decided to non-tender Carter, making him a free agent. He was a free agent until a couple of weeks ago, when he signed a low base salary- one year contract with the New York Yankees. The Brewers made the decision to bring in Korean League free agent and former MLB outfielder Eric Thames to be their regular first baseman. Thames comes with a great Korean resume which includes 124 home runs over the past three seasons. If you averaged that out, it would be exactly 41.33(etc) home runs per season. Of course, the Korean League is known to be very hitter friendly and track record has proven that the HR numbers never translate. They did acquire third baseman Travis Shaw from the Boston Red Sox in the deal that sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to New England. That led to the free agent signing of veteran Neftali Feliz from the Pirates to serve as their closer. Additionally, left hand pitcher Tommy Milone was brought in to compete for the fifth starter spot in the Brewers rotation.
The loss of Carter will be felt a lot more than the talking heads and saber-ers will tell you. Sure, he is not by any means close to a complete player, but it means the Brewers are perhaps putting some extra pressure on Thames, who never became a full time player in the major leagues before leaving for Korea. In addition to Thames, it will be a very interesting season for shortstop Orlando Arcia, who will be playing shortstop full time in the big leagues for the first time. He hit .219 in 55 games and he is still developing as an offensive player. Scouts believe he will reach his best while in the big leagues, as he could be a consistent .290-.310 hitter and have a little bit more power. In addition, he is rated as a pretty good defender, prompting the Brewers to move 2016 starting shortstop Jonathan Villar to second base. Villar is coming off of a sound breakout season, where he hit .285 with 19 home runs, 92 runs scored and led the National League with 62 stolen bases.
Braun has been the Brewers franchise player and if his last three seasons are an indication, he can be counted on to hit about .290-.300 with 25-30 home runs and play in 130-135 games. Shaw, the son of former MLB reliever Jeff Shaw, hit just .245 last season for the Red Sox. Though he drove in 71 runs last season, more has been expected of the former prospect and perhaps contributed to the Red Sox moving him this past off season. Keon Broxton has emerged as the leading candidate to play center field and bat lead off for Milwaukee, with the talented Domingo Santana getting a full season as the right fielder. Jett Bandy comes over from the Los Angeles Angels, which they consider a slight upgrade over Martin Maldonado. Andrew Susac is intriguing as he could emerge with an opportunity to earn more regular playing time. It remains to be seen what the expectation should be for Jacob Nottingham, the catcher acquired in last year's Khris Davis trade. I would line the Brewers up like this- Broxton CF, Villar 2B, Braun LF, Thames 1B, Santana RF, Shaw 3B, Arcia SS, Bandy C. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Scooter Gennett are the top candidates to come off the Brewers bench, with Ivan DeJesus trying to make the team as a non roster invitee.
Right hand pitcher Junior Guerra (9 wins, 3 losses, 2.81 earned run average) comes into camp as the Brewers number one starter. Zack Davies and Jimmy Nelson will slot behind Guerra, with Nelson and Davies tallying up the most innings among the Brewers starting pitchers last season. Chase Anderson and veteran Matt Garza will compete with Wily Peralta and Milone for the last couple spots in the Brewers rotation.
Feliz takes over as the closer but has not dominated as a top closer since the last time the Texas Rangers were making the World Series. It should be low profile enough in Milwaukee and I expect Feliz to have a solid season. Carlos Torres had a very good season and Jacob Barnes threw the ball well in limited action, but outside of that, the Brewers have a lot of questions. Michael Blazek and Corey Knebel struggled last season and will probably get more regular work this season by default. The Brewers have brought in Joba Chamberlain, Ryan Webb and Rob Scahill on minor deals with the hopes that at least one can help out on the major league roster.
Their top prospect is outfielder Lewis Brinson, who is expected to be the team's starting center fielder sometime this season. 2016 first round draft pick (fifth overall) Corey Ray is probably another full season away. Left hand starting pitcher Josh Hader has strikeout stuff, but struggled in Triple-A last season. Right hand pitcher Phil Bickford should impact the team this season once he is finished serving his suspension for drug of abuse. Shortstop Isan Diaz may very well have the most upside out of anyone in the organization. He can play second or third and the Brewers could use the twenty home runs he hit in the minors last season. Nottingham will go as far as his power will take him and there is a little concern over whether he can handle the duties of being a regular catcher.
I look at the Brewers as a team that should be much better in 2018. Brinson, Diaz, Hader and Bickford will all be major leaguers by then and Arcia will have another full season on his belt. I think the Brewers lack the pitching depth to compete reasonably in the National League Central, but as you will see, I am not very high on the two other NL Central teams coming up. The Brewers over/ under number is 72.5 and I will take the over. I have the Brewers finishing the season at 74-88, fourth place behind the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals, but ahead of the Reds.

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2016 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #27 Milwaukee Brewers

2/24/2016

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As spring training is beginning in the states of Arizona and Florida, it is time to get an idea of how each of the 30 MLB teams looks for the upcoming 2016 season. While the outlook for some teams seem very good, the likeliness is that some teams are preparing for the 2017 season and beyond. However, it does not mean it will always turn out that way. Each season, teams that are expected to do well, do not. And teams that do not expect very much end up having big seasons. You have to go no further than the 2015 baseball season and see some of the teams that made the postseason. The Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers were not expected to be ready to contend last season, according to the "experts." It is likely that the same "experts" have a lot of faith in the teams that made the playoff last season.
The Milwaukee Brewers finished the 2015 season with a 68-94 record, good enough for last place in the National League Central division. What started with high expectations ended with the team in full rebuild mode. Among players traded from the 2015 Brewers roster include first baseman Adam Lind, closer Francisco Rodriguez, shortstop Jean Segura, and outfielder Khris Davis. Of course, the fire sale started in 2015 after the Brewers fired manager Ron Roenicke and general manager Doug Melvin decided to step down. The Brewers traded outfielder Carlos Gomez, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, outfielder Gerardo Parra, and pitcher Mike Fiers last season netting many younger players we may not see in 2016. The Brewers added infielder Aaron Hill (.230 batting average, 6 home runs, 39 runs batted in, .640 on base plus slugging) and pitcher Chase Anderson (6 wins, 6 losses, 4.30 earned run average, 27 games started) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the deal for Segura. First baseman Chris Carter (.199, 24, 64, .734) comes over from the Houston Astros and once touted young players such as outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and infielders Garin Cecchini and Will Middlebrooks have a legitimate shot of making this ballclub.
Former National League MVP Ryan Braun (.285, 25, 84, .854) leads the charge for the Brewers offensively. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy (.264, 7, 43, .717) is healthy after a disappointing 2015 season. Carter will be counted on to provide a lot of offense as the only other projected starting player expected to produce above average major league numbers is outfielder Domingo Santana (.238, 8, 26 in 52 games). Hill, Cecchini and Middlebrooks are all battling for the starting third base job with Jonathan Villar (.284, 2, 11) getting the opportunity to be the everyday shortstop. Villar was acquired from the Astros in an early off season trade. Shane Peterson (.259, 2, 16) will battle with Nieuwenhuis and Eric Young Jr for at bats in center field. Scooter Gennett (.264, 6, 29, .675) looks to cement his position at second base. The opening day lineup I would go with is Gennett 2B, Santana RF, Lucroy C, Braun LF, Carter 1B, Middlebrooks 3B, Nieuwenhuis CF, Villar SS. A lineup that was once potent now resembles a replacement team (particularly the bottom three in the projected order).
The Brewers will hope that players like Hill, Cecchini, Peterson and Young provide a little bit more depth than they are projected to. Martin Maldonado (.210, 4, 22) is the backup catcher with Jacob Nottingham waiting in the wings after being acquired from Oakland in the deal for Davis. Rymer Liriano comes over from San Diego to try to gain some outfield at bats.
The Brewers made a couple of aggressive signings over the past couple seasons with the hopes they would deepen their starting rotation. Kyle Lohse is finally off the books and Matt Garza (6-14, 5.63, 25 starts) has two more years remaining on his contract. The Brewers can probably fill a rotation without Garza, but need young pitchers Jimmy Nelson (11-13, 4.11, 30 starts) and Taylor Jungman (9-8, 3.77, 21 starts) to continue to develop. Wily Peralta (5-10, 4.72, 20 starts) struggled last season and also battled some injuries. Anderson, and Zach Davies, acquired in the deal that sent Parra to Baltimore, could feasibly be the forth and fifth starters. Garza, however, will get every opportunity to prove he still has something to offer. The Brewers are hoping he goes as they would like to get something back for him in a trade.
The Brewers bullpen is missing Rodriguez (1-3, 2.21, 38 saves, 9.8 Ks per 9 innings pitched) dealt to Detroit. As has been said by many (I do not necessarily agree), bad teams to not need a good closer. The Brewers will likely use left hander Will Smith (7-2, 2.70, 70 games) as their closer this season. Right hander Jeremy Jeffress (5-0, 2.65, 72 games pitched) was a Brewers prospect years ago that has prospered with his first team after moving around to a couple of organizations. Right handers Corey Knebel (0-0, 4.22, 48 games) and Michael Blazek (5-3, 2.43, 45 games) will likely get a good look. One intriguing late inning relief candidate is Tyler Thornburg (0-2, 3.67, 24 games). Thornburg was a solid prospect as a starting pitcher but possesses some strong stuff as a short reliever. Perhaps is Smith hits a rough patch, Thornburg can emerge as the closer of the future.
Nottingham leads the list of top prospects to potentially impact the 2016 Brewers. Of course, it may be difficult to get playing time with Lucroy in the mix, but if Nottingham is ready, the Brewers will find a place for both him and Lucroy. The "crew" can also trade Lucroy and open the starting catching job to Nottingham. Shortstop Orlando Arcia looks like the Brewers shortstop of the future. We may see him this season as well. Right hand pitcher Jorge Lopez, like Davies, has some very good stuff and is coming off a solid 2015 minor league season.
What is tough about this particular rebuild is the fact that the Brewers do not have a ton of young players ready to make an impact within the next season or two. My theory is this club probably gets worse before it gets better. And that is not factoring in more trades that likely will be made during the season. I thought Las Vegas was generous with their over/ under number of 71 1/2. However, it is not that far off. I see the Brewers repeating their 2015 record of 68-94, but this time finish in last place in the NL Central division.

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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #19 Milwaukee Brewers

2/25/2015

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The return of baseball in the states of Florida and Arizona may not change the course of the cold weather in other parts of the country. However, it is a reminder that spring and more importantly, spring training, is on the way. It also means the return of www.johnpielli.com 's 30-1 MLB countdown previews, the more controversial series of team baseball previews.
All you have to do is go to the same generic websites and read the same predictions. They all have the teams positioned the same. The teams that made the postseason last year are rewarded in the minds of the pickers and are picked to finish in the top of their respective leagues/ divisions. The teams that did not do so well in 2014 are all predicted to finish at the bottom of the division- unless they had a big off season, where in some cases, they get expectations that they cannot fulfill.
My predictions are based on how I perceive each roster looks. I have studied the 2014 MLB team, its 2014- 2015 off season, their minor league system and have come up with an overall outlook for 2015. I also use the Las Vegas over- unders to judge the amount of wins I think a team will net for the upcoming season. In some cases, my outlook is completely different from the likes of baseball prospectus (almost always is), baseball america, MLB dot com and other sites. As in past years, I am always up for the debate so I look forward to hearing from you. As always, thanks and "I'll see you on the other side."
The Brewers were that story last season. They were the team that nobody had making a run for the NL Central. And for about 5/6s of the season, it seemed like they were going to pull it off. They had a 9-17 September and were 31-47 over their last 78 games to finish with the 82-80 record they finished with. They were 51-33 at the end of June. Their record for the season was perhaps a little better than was anticipated coming into the year. Still, the team felt a little bit of a disappointment by finishing the season the way they did.
I like the acquisition of Adam Lind (.321, 6, 40 in 96 games) from the Blue Jays. I think he will have a solid season in Milwaukee. They gave up RHP Marco Estrada (7-6, 4.36, 39 games, 18 starts) to get Lind. The Brewers then traded their top starting pitcher over the past six seasons, Yovani Gallardo, to the Texas Rangers for three prospects. Though the Brewers did not have a big off season transaction-wise, this season will signal the changing of the guard in regards to the team's starting rotation.
Going into this season, the Brewers will be led by RHPs Matt Garza (8-8, 3.64, 27 starts) and Kyle Lohse (13-9, 3.54, 31 starts). Wily Peralta (17-11, 3.53, 32 starts) improved a lot last season. Now, its easy to simply install RHPs Mike Fiers (6-5, 2.13, 13 games, 10 starts) and Jimmy Nelson (2-9, 4.93, 14 games, 12 starts) into the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. However, this will be the time for four of the better young pitchers in the Brewers organization to see what they can do. One of them is Nelson, who has been known as the best arm in the organization. RHP Johnny Hellweg missed the majority of the season last year and has a lot of promise. So does 2011 1st round draft pick Taylor Jungmann, who figures to make his big league debut in 2015. LHP Tyler Thornburg (3-1, 4.25, 27 games, 0 starts) has the compliment of pitches to make him a very good starting pitcher. He looked good in his 7 MLB starts in 2013.
Lohse is a free agent after the season and there is a chance that Nelson, Jungmann, Thornburg and Hellweg can all be in the rotation in 2016. Of course, Garza is signed for another two seasons after this and Peralta and Fiers will be still in the mix. If the team gets the production out of these young pitchers, GM Doug Melvin will be able to explain why he dealt Gallardo and Estrada and may be able to move either Peralta or Fiers.
Reliever Francisco Rodriguez (5-5, 3.04, 44 saves, 69 games) is not officially gone, there is still a chance he returns to the Brewers. Reportedly, he is about to sign somewhere. As of now, the Brewers look ready to use Jonathan Broxton (4-3, 2.30, 7 saves, 62 games for Reds and Brewers) as their closer. Broxton's arm strength has seemed to come back and he should be able to put up decent closer numbers in spite of his lower strikeout rate. LHP Zack Duke left to join the Chicago White Sox, leaving LHP Will Smith (1-3, 3.70, 78 games) as the team's prime lefty specialist. Dontrelle Willis comes in on a minor league contract with the thought that maybe he can become the next Duke or Oliver Perez. They did however, sign LHP Neal Cotts (2-9, 4.32, 73 games) from the Rangers to a guaranteed deal. Cotts, who was great in 2013 after missing the prior 4 seasons, does have something to prove and will not be handed a job. RHPs Jimmy Henderson (coming off an injury), Jeremy Jeffress (1-1. 1.88, 29 games) and Brandon Kintzler (3-3, 3.24, 64) will provide the rest of the right handed relievers in the pen. Because of the potential depth in the rotation, Thornburg, Nelson and Fiers all can provide some depth in regards to late game relief.
The Brewers have had a lot of faith in their offensive players. There has been very little turnover over the past three seasons. C Jonathan Lucroy (.301, 13, 69) is likely to miss the start of the season, leaving backups Martin Maldonado (.234, 4, 16) and Juan Centeno (6-30, 2 RBI with the Mets) to get some action early in the season. However, Lucroy's injury is not going to be that serious and the Brewers expect him back in the lineup before too long. It would be great for the team to get a full season out of RF Ryan Braun (.266, 19, 81 in 135 games). Braun's absence seemed to coincide with the team's struggles. 3B Aramis Ramirez (.285, 15, 66 in 133 games) re-signed with the Brewers after missing some time last year as well. CF Carlos Gomez (.284, 23, 73, 34 SB, 39 2B) is a tremendous all around player and should, in my opinion, be the team's number 3 hitter with Braun hitting behind him. The middle infield will consist of Jean Segura (.246, 5, 31, 20 SB) and Scotter Gennett (.289, 9 , 54). Segura is also completely healthy in spring training, something the Brewers will benefit from. Kris Davis (.244, 22, 69) is in LF.
The Brewers lineup I would go with is Gennett 2B, Lucroy C, Gomez CF, Braun RF, Ramirez 3B, Lind 1B, Davis LF, Segura SS. Gerardo Parra (.261, 9, 40 for D'Backs and Brewers) is the perfect 4th OF and can platoon with Davis if needed. Luis Sardinas comes over from the Rangers and at age 22 should play a utility infielder role. Elian Herrera and Logan Schafer are also looking to make the team with Maldonado and Centeno battling to stay on the team after Lucroy returns.
The Brewers will go as far as their starting pitching takes them. Braun and Lucroy being healthy are a distant second. The NL Central has certainly gotten more competitive and the Brewers are towards the bottom of being a sure thing. I still think they can win 81 games, finishing .500- 4th place in the NL Central. Vegas has their O/U at 78 1/2, so I am taking the over. The O/U seems to be pretty on, though.

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The Fielder plus cash for Kinsler trade will be the first of many similar

12/8/2013

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It has been a couple of weeks since the Detroit Tigers traded 1B Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler. Of course, Fielder just finished the 2nd year of his 9 year, $214 million contract he signed with the Tigers before the 2012 season. Numbers wise, Fielder was far from a disappointment, inspite of his dreadful postseason which was most noticeable during the Tigers loss in the ALCS to Boston in 6 games. But lets get one thing straight, it was not like Fielder proved himself to not be the players the Tigers signed him to be. His 2013 was respectable, not solid, as he hit .279, 25, 106 with a career low OPS of .819 while playing all 162 games for the 3rd straight season and 4th time in the last 5 seasons.
The decision to move Fielder had more to do with GM Dave Dombrowski wanting to free up salary to extend 2013 AL Cy Young Award Winner Max Scherzer. Additionally, he will be able to shake up a good team that just has not been able to complete the task of winning the World Series. The issue that the Tigers were dealing with was the fact that other teams were not going to simply take on Fielder's contract AND give the return warranted under my fair MLB trade proposition. That is why the Tigers received Kinsler, a good player, but one that is not considered in the same league as Fielder. The Rangers were interested in signing Fielder a couple off seasons ago, but simply did not want to invest the amount of money Detroit was willing to. The $30 million that the Tigers kicked in to help pay his contract allowed the Rangers to feel more comfortable about taking it on. If the Tigers had been willing to take on a significant amount of the deal, of course the Rangers would have had to give up some more significant players than just Kinsler. It should turn out to be a deal that will help both teams.
The Fielder/ Kinsler trade in its own way was kind of revolutionary. The Boston Red Sox had made a similar trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012 where they traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to LA and received a much less impactful package in return. Comparing both deals, it is understood the Dodgers received the better players in the mega-trade while the Rangers received the better player in the deal with Detroit. Other teams have plenty of interest in the success or failure of these types of trades. While the Red Sox/ Dodgers deal looks like it helped both teams, taking LA to the NLCS and helping the Red Sox to a World Series Championship, you have to look no further than the Miami Marlins to see that sometimes unloading players to move their contracts is a complete sign of surrender for those who want to play competitive baseball.
I am sure the Milwaukee Brewers will be keeping an eye on how the Fielder trade works out. Fielder's former team has OF Ryan Braun under contract until the year 2020. Perhaps the Brewers aren't desperate to move Braun, but probably had to at least considered trying to cut their losses after his PED suspension in 2013. Right now, Milwaukee is in the phase of wanting to get competitive talent that matches that of Braun in a deal. Otherwise, it seems to be no inclination they will deal him. Oddly enough, if Braun returns to form next season, the Brewers may be more inclined to move him then if he falls far from his MVP season in 2011. If Braun struggles, it would mean either he is a Brewer for life or the team has to pay a large sum of the contract for him to get out of Milwaukee. If he hits MVP form, the Brewers would be able to move the deal and get a quality return for him. But what happens if Braun simply puts up above average numbers? For example, what if Braun plays in 155 games in 2014 and hits .280, 28, 90 with 35 2Bs? And a guy who has a .312 career batting average sees his OPS drop to .869 for the full season (his OPS in 2013 over 61 games) or lower. Braun's career OPS is currently .938. It would be safe to say his future decline could have to do with being off the PEDs. The Brewers, of course, could choose to hold onto him or consider moving him in a trade.
The problem with this scenario is, the team potentially trading for Braun is looking for the 2011 MVP version. They would not be getting that. But Braun is getting paid like the 2011 MVP version. At this point, if the Brewers wanted to move Braun, they would have to either pay a significant portion of his remaining contract and receive quality players back or deal him and a portion of the contact to another team and receive maybe a good player, but not one that will produce even at my projected 2014 results.
Another example is LA Dodgers OF Matt Kemp, the 2011 runner up in the NL MVP voting to Braun. Kemp's story is different, as of now, as Kemp has simply been hurt for the majority of the past two seasons. After his 2011 performance put Kemp in the category of the best player in the game discussion, Kemp was on his way to that status again in 2012, before an injury around the All Star break. He has not been the same player since. Kemp is signed through the year 2019, as his 8 year, $160 million extension started in 2012. Similar to Braun, Kemp will be watched closely as he looks to come back healthy in 2014.
The only difference is the fact that the Dodgers have a situation where they have 4 OFs for 3 spots, due to the emergence of Yasiel Puig. Though Andre Ethier is also on the block, it may be in the Dodgers best interest to move Kemp. Regardless, it is likely one or the other will be moved before the start of the 2014 season. Ethier, who started his 6 year, $95.5 million deal in the 2012 season as well, looked nothing like the player he was before he signed the extension. In fact, his .272, 12, 52 in 142 games make his extension look like more of a mistake than Kemp's. Obviously, the jury is still out on Kemp as he looks to return from his injuries.
Right now, if a team was to trade for Kemp or Ethier, the Dodgers would have to either pay a large percentage of the rest of the contract and receive a comparable package (ie. top prospects, impact players) or pay a smaller portion of the contact and receive a player or two that would not make the trade seem fair on those players best days and the LA players worst.
Players that have signed free agent contacts this offseason could find themselves in the same situation down the road. Questions already exist over Albert Pujols first two seasons with the Angels. Could you see the Angels move him to a team just for the sake of the salary relief? Seems unlikely, but I am sure it has been discussed. Jacoby Ellsbury is now under contract for the Yankees for the next 7 seasons. Robinson Cano will now be getting paid from the Seattle Mariners for the next 10. Whatever happens, I am sure teams will be looking in to the success or failure of the Prince Fielder and $30 million to the Rangers for Ian Kinsler trade as a marking grounds over whether future trades like that can be made.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #26 Brewers

3/5/2013

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The Milwaukee Brewers had a very good finish to their 2012 season. After winning the NL Central in 2011, the team slipped last year, mostly because of the loss of 1B Prince Fielder. At one point, the Brewers had won 24 out of 30 games to get themselves back in the race. However, they lost out by losing 7 of their last 12 to finish the season. The Brewers have committed themselves to their young starting pitching, trading Zack Grienke and Randy Wolf last season and letting Shawn Marcum leave. Francisco Rodriguez has also not been signed, an indication the team's pitching staff will be full of youth.
Ryan Braun is the key to the team's season. He has some support, but the loss of Corey Hart and Mat Gamel will have an impact on the offense. The Brewers have Aramis Ramirez (.300, 27, 105) at 3B, Jonathan Lucroy (.320, 12, 58 in 96 games) behind the plate and Norichica Aoki (.288, 10, 50 in 151 games) in RF. Two players that can change the fortunes of this team are CF Carlos Gomez (.260, 19, 51, 30 SB) and 2B Rickie Weeks (.230, 21, 63). If they have big seasons, the loss of Hart may not hurt as much. Losing Hart (.270, 30, 83) a year after losing Fielder puts the Brewers in a precarious position. Braun showed he could back up his MVP season of 2011 (.332, 33, 111) after failing a PED test. In 2012, he hit .319, 41, 112 before coming up in the reports of the Miami anti aging clinic. Obviously, the Brewers could be much worse without Braun playing at the level he has been at.
I'd lineup the Brewers like this Gomez CF, Aoki RF, Braun LF, Ramirez 3B, Weeks 2B, Lucroy C, Taylor Green 1B, Jean Segura SS. Green will probably get most of the playing time at 1B until Hart returns; however, that can be August. Segura is the SS prospect the team got in the Grienke trade last season. The bench is led by veteran Alex Gonzalez, who provides insurance at SS, as well as 1B. Players like Jeff Bianchi and Logan Verritt should make the team as reserves.
Yovani Gallardo is clearly the ace of the staff, coming off a 16-9, 3.66 season with 204 Ks in 204 IP. The drop off is drastic after that, as far as experience. Marco Estrada (5-7, 3.64 in 29 games, 23 starts) is the next experienced starting pitcher. Mike Fiers (9-10, 3.74, in 23 games, 22 starts) follows with rookies Wily Peralta and Mike Rogers rounding out the rotation. Estrada and Fiers had more strikeouts than innings pitched, as did Peralta in limited action. The Brewers will be counting on Chris Narveson to return from his prolonged absence to be a factor in the rotation. I think they will need him. I think it is too much to expect all the young starting pitchers, possibly 4 out of 5, to keep the team in most games. I think this same rotation will be a lot better next season. Perhaps a trade for Aaron Harang or a signing of Kyle Lohse would provide some more stability.
The bullpen no longer has Rodriguez, Cameron Loe and Jose Veras, among others. John Axford (5-8, 4.67, 35 saves in 75 games) is coming off a down year, despite having 93 Ks in 69 1/3 IP in 2012. Newcomers Tom Gorzelanny, Mike Gonzalez and Burke Badenhop will have their work cut out for them as all three may be taking on different roles than they are accustomed to. I can see the bullpen being a complete disaster this season. Add that to the inexperienced pitching staff outside of Gallardo, it does not look good.
The Brewers are clearly my first pick when it comes to being a disappointment. They did a great job last season, especially battling back when their season seemed finished. They have some fight and should score runs led by Braun, Ramirez, Lucroy and others. I just do not trust the pitching staff, at least right now. Vegas has the Brewers at 79 1/2. I am going with the under, as I see the Brewers finishing at 70-92, last in the NL Central. Weeks, Gomez and a healthy Hart can change things, as can pitchers like Estrada, Fiers and Peralta and Rogers. Perhaps they add a significant middle reliever to address a significant weakness.

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2017 30-1 MLB countdown team previews: #23- Milwaukee Brewers

2016 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #27 Milwaukee Brewers

2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #19 Milwaukee Brewers

The Fielder plus cash for Kinsler trade will be the first of many similar

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #26 Brewers

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