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30-1 MLB countdown previews 2014: #27 Minnesota Twins

3/7/2014

I'm happy to be putting together my annual MLB team previews for the 3rd consecutive March. Each of the past seasons, I have learned from my experience that I have to make adjustments to my initial thoughts. My beef has been with all the experts just piggy backing off Baseball Prospectus to rank the teams to prospective finishes. Before the 2012 season, I tried to make a point that they are never completely correct. By doing so, I made some bolder predictions to try to stand out. I also noticed that the know it alls simply like to predict that the same teams that were successful last season will automatically be great the following year. While that is not necessarily true, there is no formula to pick that "sleeper team" for any given season. Doing this for the 3rd season, I've put together a better balance of logic and in the belief of the up and comer. Feel free to comment both on the outlook of each team I preview as well as where I rank them among the 30 in MLB.
The Minnesota Twins have spent the last couple seasons building a strong farm system. The dividends are starting to pay out. Unfortunately, one of the prime prospects to contribute this season, Miguel Sano, had or is having Tommy John surgery and is likely out for the season. Sano is a future star, who would likely have hit 20-30 HR in his rookie campaign. The potential production and that of top overall MLB prospect Byron Buxton were expected to give the team a boost. In fact, that was part of the reason the Twins went out and signed free agent RHPs Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes and brought back RHP Mike Pelfrey. The thought was if they could get decent starting pitching, then offensively they can be ok. The loss of Sano hurts and all but eliminates the chances of the Twins being a sleeper team this season.
The Twins traded catcher Ryan Doumit to the Braves in exchange for a minor league pitcher. Joe Mauer moving to 1B should put him up there with the most productive 1B in all of MLB. I am not joking. Having the chance to play 150+ games will allow Mauer to show his hitting prow less; something that he was he held back slightly having to squat down behind the plate for all those seasons.
The starting rotation will consist of returnees Pelfrey (5-13, 5.19 in 29 starts) and Correia (9-13, 4.18, 31 starts). The addition of Nolasco (13-11, 3.70 in 33 starts for Miami and Los Angeles) and Hughes (4-14, 5.19 in 24 starts for Yankees) will provide some leadership and hopefully a dependable 6 innings of work a start. Returning starters Sam Duduno (8-8, 3.18 in 18 starts) and Scott Diamond (6-13, 5.43 in 24 starts) will battle or the 5th spot in the rotation. However, I like the chances of RHP Vance Worley (1-5, 7.21 in 10 starts) and Kyle Gibson (2-4, 6.83 in 10 starts) better since both have higher ceilings than Duduno and Diamond. However it works out, I expect the Twins to have a better starting staff than last season. It could not be much worse. In addition to Gibson, keep an eye on RHPs Alex Meyer, Trevor May and 2013 1st round draft pick Kohl Stewart, all of whom could be at the MLB level by season's end. However, with the veteran pitchers they have signed, the goal is to allow them all to develop down in the minor leagues.
The bullpen should be very good season, led by one of the most underrated closers in all of MLB Glen Perkins. Perkins (2-0, 36 saves, 2.30, 77 Ks in 62 2/3 IP) should have some help getting him the ball led by Jared Burton (2-9, 3.82 in 71 games), Brian Duensing (6-2, 3.98 in 73 games) and Anthony Swarzak (3-2, 2.91 in 48 games).
There are a couple of interesting options for the Twins in their bullpen. First there is RHP Deolis Guerra, a pitcher obtained from the New York Mets in the Johan Santana trade who has yet to pitch in the majors. He is a minor league invitee looking to crack the big club. Also there is Matt Guerrier, a RHP who enjoyed the most success of his young career pitching for the Twins. It would be nice to see one or both of them break camp with the club.
I strongly feel this will be a huge season for Mauer who hit .324, 11, 47 in 103 games last year. The thought of him playing 150 games should increase the level of expected productivity. Buxton coming up sooner than later will make the lineup strong, with Josh Willingham (.208, 14, 48) and 3B Trevor Plouffe (.254, 14, 52) expected to put up better numbers than last year. Projected starting 2B Brian Dozier (.244, 18, 66) had a good season and even SS Pedro Florimon, known for his defense, did alright (.221, 8, 44). The team signed veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki (.232, 5, 32 with Washington and Oakland last season), who along with Chris Herrmann will get a lot of time behind the plate. CF Alex Presley (.283, 1, 11 in 28 games), acquired in the trade that sent Justin Morneau to the Pirates, will be the starting CF until Buxton is ready. Aaron Hicks is expecting to see some time as well. Rounding out the bench will be Chris Collabello, Eduardo Escobar and Oswaldo Arcia.
In on a minor league contract with a big league camp invite is 2B Doug Bernier. Doug was a guest on the Passed Ball Show this year and is 33 years old. It would be nice to see him get a shot and maybe be a Jamey Carroll type of player of the bench.
The Twins finished 2013 with a 66-96 record under manager Ron Gardenhire. I was ready to pick them to do a little better but the Sano injury is making it tough. Las Vegas has their number at 70. I see an improvement but cannot take the over. My prediction is 67-95, last place in the AL Central.

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What the Ryan Doumit trade says about Evan Gattis

12/18/2013

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Evan Gattis celebrates a HR in a game against the Minnesota Twins. In the middle is Ryan Doumit, acquired today to compete for the starting catching job for the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves made a trade today to get Minnesota Twins C/OF/ DH Ryan Doumit for a decent pitching prospect. Like a lot of moves the Braves made, they are fairly shrewd; more times than not working out in their favor. The Braves lost catcher Brian McCann as a free agent to the Yankees, leaving a minor void behind the plate. But, the Braves were prepared for that moment, as they felt all along that McCann would net himself a contract that was beyond what Atlanta was willing to pay. One of the great stories of 2013 was that of Evan Gattis. Gattis had quit baseball, then college while roaming around the United States for a couple of years before getting himself back to school and playing baseball. Without reaching AAA, he made the Braves opening day roster and had a very good rookie season.
Gattis played mostly the outfield in 2013. This was certainly a position he had difficulty adjusting to. Primarily a catcher, he was expected to have the best opportunity to take over for McCann in 2014. The trade for Doumit comes with several questions. Is Doumit now in Atlanta to be the everyday catcher? Did the Braves not believe Gattis could be a regular catcher? Most importantly, do they think Doumit, who has battled injuries at times of his career, can be an everyday catcher while going from splitting time between catching and DH in 2012 to being primarily a DH in 2013, playing almost as many games as an outfielder (33) as he did behind the plate (43)? And finally, (though this does not concern the Braves) after the Twins announced that All Star catcher Joe Mauer would be the regular 1B for the team in 2014, what possessed the Twins to trade Doumit when they clearly have an opening when it comes to their own starting catcher?
At the very least, the trade for Doumit gives the Braves some options. Doumit has caught, played 1B and the outfield, which at the very least makes him a valuable utility player. Though 2013 was a down year for Ryan; he hit just .247, 14, 55 in 135 games, he has always hit RHP as well as LHP, making him not just a platoon player. Gattis, as a rookie, finished 7th in the NL ROY voting and hit .243, 21, 65 in 105 games, which included a .480 slugging percentage.
If you want to look at the doubts of both players as catchers right now, neither will profile to be the everyday catcher. Perhaps the Braves will use both, with the hopes that one of them will become the main guy. Remember, veteran Gerald Laird is signed through 2014, making him the likely backup catcher. The fact that Laird has always been a very good defensive catcher makes it a wise decision to keep him. However, after watching Gattis play the OF last season, it would be figured that a reasonable conclusion would have been to play more games as catcher. Though Doumit is no GG OF, he has shown the ability to do an adequate enough job to be trusted. I do not feel the same way about Gattis as an OF.
I would still start Gattis as catcher, with Laird as the backup. This way Laird can be an option as a late inning defensive replacement. This is what makes the acquisition of Doumit interesting. To me, Doumit looks more comfortable playing the OF and may be a role player on this Atlanta team.
It is unlikely the case, as it would be interesting to see why the Braves acquired a player who has primarily been a catcher until recently to not catch. Odds are, Doumit was brought in to be the starting catcher. So what does that mean for Gattis? The Braves outfield seems to start the same way it did in 2013, with Justin Upton, BJ Upton and Jason Heyward. Freddie Freeman is at 1B. It would then force either Gattis or Doumit to be a backup- role type player. Though I would Gattis, it is likely the Braves were not sold on his performance last season. And going with Doumit as their starting catcher is proof that the Braves are not high enough on Gattis to trust him to be the starter.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #28 Twins

3/3/2013

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Manager Ron Gardenhire had enjoyed one of the better starts to a MLB managerial career with the Minnesota Twins. Through his first 9 seasons, he finished over .500 8 times, winning 6 division titles and winning over 90 games 5 times. What got him credit as being one of the best managers in the game is the fact that he usually won with less, having success with teams that did not have a ton of star power. The last two seasons, however, have been very trying, as the Twins have lost 99 and 96 games, respectively. I do not feel Gardenhire deserves all the blame here, as the Twins' small market approach has fizzled due to a struggling farm system. Due to the fact that the Tigers remain elite, the White Sox took steps in 2012, the Indians made many moves to upgrade their team and the Royals finally going for it, the Twins will find it very tough to contend this season.
The Twins off season started with the trade of two of their starting OFs, Denard Span to the Nationals and Ben Revere to the Twins. Starting SS Alexei Casilla is now with the Baltimore Orioles organization, but other than those moves, the offense should be similar to what it was in 2012, not that bad. The same cannot be said about their pitching staff, which was among the worst in the American League last season. GM Terry Ryan made it a priority to upgrade their starting rotation the best way possible, but there are still a lot of questions.
While the focus of this team will be on the future, there is still some life in the offense. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit give the team a presence in the middle of the order. Mauer (.319, 10, 85 in 147 games) is the franchise player and is expected to be on the Twins for a long time. The same cannot be said about Morneau (.267, 19, 77 in 134 games) as he is due to be a free agent after this season. The Twins will probably look to move Morneau with the hopes of replenishing their farm system. Willingham (.260, 35, 110) is their biggest power hitter, and I can see the Twins only moving him for a substantial upgrade to the farm system. Doumit (.275, 18, 75) was as good as I expected him to be when the Twins picked him up as a free agent from Pittsburgh. Darin Mastroianni gets the chance to play CF everyday, with Chris Parmalee in RF, Pedro Florimon at SS and veteran Jamey Carroll at 2B. I would set the lineup like this Mastroianni CF, Mauer C, Morneau 1B, Willingham LF, Doumit DH, Trevor Plouffe 3B (.235, 24, 55 in 119 games), Parmalee RF, Florimon SS, Carroll 2B. Brian Dozier will backup both middle infield positions with a chance to be a starter. The lack of depth on the bench is a concern, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Mastroianni, Parmalee and even Plouffe. Injury is always a concern when it comes to Mauer and Morneau. I would expect the Twins to be pursuing some depth in the outfield and on the bench.
The problem this team had last season was its pitching, particularly the starters. Scott Diamond (12-9, 3.54) was their best starter but made just 27 starts. After Diamond's 173 IP, Brian Duensing was next on the team in IP with 109. Duensing pitched in 55 games, 11 as a starter. Only Francisco Liriano (3-10, 5.31 before he was traded to Chicago) joined Diamond and Duensing in pitching 100 or more innings (and he had 100 even). They did a good job bringing in pitchers who should provide innings for them. Vance Worley (6-9, 4.20 in 23 starts) came over in the Revere trade and free agents Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.21, 32 games, 28 starts) and Mike Pelfrey (7-13, 4.74 in 34, 33 during the 2011 season) are expected to provide said innings. Pelfrey is returning from Tommy John surgery and word is, he has been throwing the ball well. Cole De Vries (5-5, 4.11 in 16 starts) was throwing the ball well for the Twins before his season ended prematurely. Liam Hendricks is also battling for a spot in their rotation.
The bullpen is led by LHP Glen Perkins, who had 16 saves for the team last season after replacing the injured Matt Capps. Jared Burton, Alex Burnett and Duensing are the best options to set up. The Twins are hoping to get some help from veterans Rich Harden, NIck Blackburn and Rafael Perez, all in camp on minor league contracts.
As far as the farm system is concerned, expect to see RHP Kyle Gibson contributing at some point this season. Had it not been for an injury, he would already be up here. The Twins like him, Alex Meyer (obtained in the Span trade) and Trevor May (in the Revere trade). They would be happy if those three were staples in the rotation for years to come. OF Byron Buxton, their number 1 draft pick of a year ago, could be on the fast track, but it is unlikely we will see him in the big leagues this season.
It is hard to see the Twins winning a lot of games this season, especially with the talent in the AL Central. Vegas puts their over/ under at 64 1/2, which I think is very fair. I think they will finish below that though, at 62-100, last place in the AL Central. The three acquisitions for the rotation are key; if they can all pitch at their best, the team could be much better. Not playoff better, but maybe they can win 72-77 games. If so, Gardenhire should get a contract extension.

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Twins VS Indians: Whos future is better?

9/16/2012

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    While I tried to evaluate whether the 2013 season would be better for the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays, I felt it was not a question that could be answered without figuring out exactly what the Red Sox will do this offseason. The fact that they saved so much payroll in the deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers allows them the option, if they choose, to retool and put a top team together for next season. Today, I will discuss to more division rivals, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. One team (Minnesota) started its rebuilding process last year while the Indians are having an extremely disappointing season.
    It was a safe bet to believe in the Indians this season. Their starting pitching, in particular, has been an huge disappointment. Their top three starters, Justin Masterson (11-14, 4.93), Ubaldo Jimenez (9-16, 5.52) and Josh Tomlin (5-8, 6.36) were all much better in 2011. Masterson was 12-10, 3.21, Jimenez was 10-13, 4.68 and Tomlin was 12-7, 4.25. Add in Derek Lowe, who was acquired from Atlanta, and their starters did not get the job done in 2012.
    I also felt this team needed to add another power bat in their lineup. A lineup that has 2B Jason Kipnis, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, C Carlos Santana and RF Shin Soo Choo could have thrived by having one more power hitter hitting between them. Choo has had a down season, despite being healthy, and Grady Sizemore has missed the entire season after the Indians brought him back. Adding Johnny Damon after the start of the season did not work out.
    The Indians should look fairly similar next season and its interesting to see how much they look to upgrade their problem areas. Closer Chris Perez could be traded which may net them a decent return. In my opinion, this team has developed a young core and could thrive if they add the missing piece or two. They also have to determine if Manny Acta is the guy who will lead them to prominence. All in all, I think there is hope going into next season.
    The one thing the Twins have on their side is their manager. Ron Gardenhire is one of the better managers in the game. He faces his biggest challenge as he has the least amount of talent he has ever had to work with. Joe Mauer (.319, 9, 76) and Justin Mourneau (.279, 19, 75) have both bounced back from injuries to have good seasons. Josh Willingham (.258, 34, 105) and Ryan Doumit (.282, 16, 67) have given something to the middle of their order. Unfortunately, that is all they got. Denard Span has not gotten to the level that he has been expected to and there are as many holes in the Twins order as one would expect from a team that has been one of the worst in baseball over the past two seasons.
    Outside of Scott Diamond (11-7, 3.46), the Twins have gotten little help from their pitching staff. Cole De Vries (5-5, 4.11) was looking good until he was lost for the season. Unless the Twins add a top of the rotation starter for next season, it will be a crapshoot over how the rotation will be rounded out. There is little help on the way in the minors, either.
    This one is easy to determine: the Indians have better hopes going into 2013. The Twins are missing so much, particularly in their starting pitching, while their bullpen is average at best. The Indians have a very good pen. While Gardenhire would be a shoe-in for the AL Manager of the Year if he got the Twins over .500 next season, Acta (if he lasts after this season) will not have a job if the Indians don't get back to the level they were last season in 2013.

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Teams get compensatory picks for not signing ____?!

6/5/2012

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    As the first phase of the 2012 MLB draft ended yesterday, it became time for all the sudden draft experts to give an opinion on who was a good pick or not. I find it amazing that everybody becomes an expert on high school and college players this time of year. It gives the people who actually put in the hard work a bad name. Do we seriously have to hear comments by average people who have no connection to the game? "I don't like this pick," as if the person can prove what kind of player the pick will become. Nobody cares what you think.
    Now that I got that off my chest, I saw a good portion of the second part of yesterday's draft. All I could do is listen to the experts opinion of what the players could become. If I had researched the players, there would be no first-hand prospective; I'd be relying on the experts anyways. The bottom line is there is little that could be told about what players will be like that are taken in the first and compensatory rounds. They are all talented; some will be stars, some will get injured and some will underperform. There is no reason to say that your favorite got a terrible first round pick on draft day.
    The compensatory round covered picks 32 to 40. These were all picks that were awarded to teams that lost players to the free agent process. From 32-40, teams were given compensation for losing key players such as Minnesota-Cuddyer (32), San Diego-Bell (33), Oakland-Willingham (34), NY Mets-Reyes (35), St Louis-Pujols (36), Boston-Papelbon (37), Milwaukee-Fielder (38), Texas-Wilson (39) and Philadelphia-Madson (40). Though Madson is hurt and will not pitch this season, but at the time, was deserved of draft pick compensation.
    From 41-60 though, there were several players who were marginal at best. These players should not have gotten the teams they left an extra draft pick. Clint Barmes signs with the Pirates and the Astros get the 41st pick? Ryan Doumit signs with the Twins and the Astros get the 45th pick? Mark Ellis signs with the Dodgers and the Rockies get the 46th pick? I guess it fitting that the Dodgers get the 51st pick after losing catcher Rod Barajas to the Pirates. Much traveled Octavio Dotel nets the Cardinals the 52nd pick after he signed with the Tigers. Darren Oliver, who was had several stints with the Texas Rangers, nets them the 53rd pick by signing with the Blue Jays. The Jays also added Francisco Cordero from the Reds, giving the Reds the 57th pick. Losing Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch though, gets the Jays the 50th and 58th picks, respectively. To top it off, the Jays get themselves the 60th pick by letting free agent..... Jose Molina go to the Tampa Bay Rays!
    I personally think the extra draft picks should be kept to the players I mentioned two paragraphs ago. None of the players in the last paragraph are worth any compensation. Its fairly obvious.

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30-1 MLB countdown previews 2014: #27 Minnesota Twins

What the Ryan Doumit trade says about Evan Gattis

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #28 Twins

Twins VS Indians: Whos future is better?

Teams get compensatory picks for not signing ____?!

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