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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #3 Seattle Mariners

3/16/2015

The Seattle Mariners have found themselves a window where they now have the opportunity to become the elite team in the American League. Part of it has to do with their strong starting pitching and another part of it has to do with the addition of Nelson Cruz (.271, 40, 108) as a free agent from Baltimore. The third reason has to do with the reduced state of the American League, particularly with the AL East division being as weak as it is right now. If the Mariners can push the right buttons, an AL Pennant is for their taking for the first time in their 38 year history (39 including their 1969 season as the Seattle Pilots).
The Mariners starting pitching looks to be as strong as any team in the American League. Led by Felix Hernandez (15-6, 2.14, 148 Ks, 236 IP), the team has the perfect combination of youth and leadership that should keep them in most games. RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (15-9, 3.52, 28 starts) is the one concern as he did struggle in the 2nd half of last season. However, he does seem healthier this spring and pitching through injuries may have been a key to his struggles. LHP James Paxton (6-4, 3.04, 13 starts) had a very impressive stretch for the Mariners and along with top pitching prospect Taiwan Walker (2-3, 2.61, 8 games, 5 starts), provides the balance of youth and leadership. Both young pitchers should benefit from having Felix as the staff ace as well as Iwakuma and 5th starter JA Happ (11-11, 4.26, 26 starts). Happ was acquired in a deal with Toronto for OF Michael Saunders.
The Mariners also have LHP Roenis Elias (10-12, 3.85, 29 starts) and RHP Erasmo Ramirez (1-6, 5.26, 14 starts) which will be insurance in case there is an injury. Hope is, though, that the Mariners can run their five starters out similar to the Cincinnati Reds of 2012. If that is the case, it will be an indication the Mariners have arrived. If that is not the case, veterans Kevin Correia and Joe Saunders are in camp as NRIs.
The Ms offense features 2B Robinson Cano (.314, 14, 82), Cruz and 3B Kyle Seager (.268, 25, 96). The most intriguing thing about the Mariners lineup will be the potential platoon options manager Lloyd McClendon has. McClendon himself was a platoon player during his days with the Pirates under Jim Leyland. Among the potential platoons include RF, LF and 1B. The Mariners traded for OFs Seth Smith (.266, 12, 48) and Justin Ruggiano (.281, 6, 28) from the Padres and Cubs, respectively. This has the potential to be their most effective platoon with both players hitting the opposite arm particularly well. Add the HR and RBI and the Mariners will sign up for 18 HR and 76 RBI out of their RF. The other two platoons are a little more confusing, as they really do not have to be platoons. If McClendon wants to play the percentages, he can use LH 1B Logan Morrison (.262, 11, 38) against righties and former top catching prospect Jesus Montero (4-17, 1 HR) against lefties. Montero has had some issues with the Mariners brass and has served a suspension for the use of PEDs. Montero did hit .286 with 16 HR in AAA and has seemed to come into camp in pretty good shape. If not a platoon, I can see one or the other playing 1B everyday with the other being in more of a reserve role.
The other spot is a little more confusing. LF Dustin Ackley (.245, 14, 65) has struggled to live up to potential, mostly because he has batted about .200 against left hand pitchers. While the Mariners do not have a conventional platoon partner for Ackley in LF, perhaps former Brewers 2B Rickie Weeks can be the answer. Weeks looked better in a platoon role last season with Milwaukee (.274, 8, 29). Weeks has never played another position in the field other than 2B, but Seattle has played him out there in ST.
CF Austin Jackson (.256, 4, 47) came over at the trading deadline in the David Price trade involving Detroit and Tampa Bay. He was terrible for the Ms last season, hitting just .229 with 59 Ks in 54 games. Though he does play very good defense, which is an asset to the pitching staff, he does need to his 2011 to 2012 form, or at the very least 2013 form- which the Mariners will settle for. If not, I can see the Mariners putting a supposedly healthy Franklin Gutierrez out there or maybe even James Jones, the defensive minded OF who played more games in CF than any other Mariners player last season. SS Brad Miller (.221, 10, 36) is likely to lose the job to Chris Taylor (.287, 9 RBI in 47 games). Taylor has a track record for hitting for a higher average and is the superior defensive player. C Mike Zunino (.199, 22, 60) will be the starter behind the plate with Jesus Sucre being the backup. The Mariners lineup I would go with would contain the platoons, but doesn't have to. Jackson CF, Ackley/ Weeks LF, Seager 3B, Cano 2B, Cruz DH, Smith/ Ruggiano RF, Morrison/ Montero 1B, Zunino C, Taylor SS. The Mariners bench is led by the platoonees, Willie Bloomquist and Sucre.
The Mariners bullpen is one of the weak spots on the team. Closer Fernando Rodney (1-6, 2.85, 48 saves) has been too up and down from year to year and the team does not necessarily have many options to back him up. I like the depth on the roster but that same depth does not exist when it comes to the bullpen. RHPs Danny Farquhar (3-1, 2.66, 81 Ks in 71 IP) is their next best option with RHPs Tom Wilhelmsen (3-2, 2.27, 57 games) and Yoervis Medina (5-3, 2.68, 66 games) also part of the crew. LHP Charlie Furbush (1-5, 3.61, 67 games) the lone lefty with Lucas Luetge and veteran Rafael Perez also trying for a spot.
3B DJ Peterson headlines the Mariners top players in the farm from 2014. He hit .297, 31, 111 in A and AA last season. Another 3B prospect, Patrick Kivlehan, put up some solid numbers at A and AA last year (.295, 20, 103). As far as this season goes, the biggest MLB impact will be felt by Walker, Paxton and Taylor.
The Mariners were given a Las Vegas O/U of 86 1/2. I have them finishing better than that, at 89-73, 1st place in the AL West and best record in the American League. I think the Mariners will be able to score runs, though every position in the batting order will be productive. McClendon's NL managerial style will be put to the test as he has the ability to get more out of this group by platooning. The pitching staff should speak for itself and Felix will soon be joined by another star in coming- Taiwan Walker. Lets see if the Mariners can get to the World Series for the first time and their history. If that happens, that will leave just the Expos/ Nationals as the only team to have not made it to a World Series. Hmm...

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Mets Black Friday value list 2013

11/29/2013

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This is the 3rd consecutive year I have put together a list of some players that will likely command little money and could overperform over what they will get paid. With the continuous uncertainty over whether the Mets will be willing and or able to pay a player "market value", there is a possibility that the team may already be finished making significant moves this offseason. I hope that is not the case, but if you used the past history of the last two offseasons, all Mets fans know it is a possibility. As I have stated before, this is not a prediction of what I hope the Mets offseason nets them. This year, as opposed to others, the Mets have more payroll flexibility and players to move if they desire to make a trade. If I had to guess, I think the Mets make one marquee addition through free agency and another via trade.
Being a Mets fan, you always have to prepare for the worst. The Mets signed OF Chris Young. What if they continue to claim poverty as every free agent position player goes off the board? Would it shock anybody if that was the case again? Even with the extra money to spend, there is a possibility that the Mets won't have the highest offer for any player they are pursuing. If that is the case, they could rely heavier on the trade market. But what if that fails? If it does, the Mets will be once again shopping the dollar rack to put together a baseball team. Bringing in these types of players will not do much to excite the Mets fan. Odds are attendance will drop even more unless the team gives the fans something to hope for.
So, here it is. I've prefaced this enough. The Mets may surprise more this offseason if they do not act aggressively, since they have more money at their disposal. The team needs to add at least one more outfielder, a shortstop, perhaps a bench player or two, two starting pitchers and two relievers.
Outfield: Among under the radar players the team could take a chance on are Quintin Berry, Mark Teahen, Brennan Boesch and even a possible reunion with Endy Chavez. I would consider Grady Sizemore if there is a possibility he could be a MLB player again, but that possibility seems unlikely. Shelley Duncan may be worth a chance to take, but it is unlikely he will be an everyday MLB player. If I had a choice (and remember I am only talking about the "dollar rack"), I would like to see the Mets take a chance on OFs Tyler Colvin and Franklin Gutierrez. Colvin put up solid numbers in Colorado in 2012, yet spent most of 2013 in the minor leagues due to a roster crunch. He could come cheap and I'm sure he feels the need to prove 2012 was not a fluke. I'm not as high on Gutierrez, since he has been injury prone, but he has an upside both offensively and defensively. The cost of both players should be right up Sandy Alderson's alley.
Shortstop: The drop off after the top available shortstops is so steep that it would not make sense to invest a lot of money on a free agent. Perhaps the Mets address this need in a trade or simply start 2014 with Ruben Tejada. On the cheap, veterans like Willie Bloomquist, Jamey Carroll and Alexi Casilla are available. Miguel Tejada may want to come back, but there obviously is some concern over whether he has anything left or needs some synthetic enhancement. Thinking about low cost options, perhaps Clint Barmes could be had. Obviously not a huge upgrade from Tejada, but Barmes has been a starting SS for a while and played in the postseason for Pittsburgh in 2013. Yuniesky Betancourt is not nearly as good defensively, but hits for some power. Between the two of them, they may be able to man the position for very little cost.
Backup Catcher: I think it would be a good idea for the Mets to bring in a veteran backup catcher. A team that either can't spend or does not have the ability to cannot make a lucrative investment to a backup catcher. Chris Snyder has been a starter but it seems he has nothing left. Wil Nieves, however, has build up some experience over the past 5 seasons and emerged backing up Miguel Montero in Arizona last season. At $1 million or two for 2014, this would give catcher Travis d'Arnaud the mentoring he needs without competition for his job.
Starting pitcher: Veteran pitchers like Jon Garland, Brett Myers and Daisuke Matsuzaka lead the list of pitchers who may be willing to take non guaranteed contracts. Rather than that, I would consider younger alternatives like Clayton Richard and Jeff Karstens, assuming the risk was just as little. But there are two free agent pitchers who are not so removed from being solid MLB starters. And they are younger. Using the same cheap philosophy, I'd consider RHP Jeff Niemann and RHP James McDonald. McDonald was a top prospect with the Dodgers and was one of the Pirates better starters before last season. Niemann is coming off a major injury and will need some time to recover. If McDonald returns to form of a couple years ago and Niemann recovers from the injury, these can be two great moves.
Relief pitcher: The Mets were linked to RHP Alfredo Aceves, but he will come with too much baggage, even if he is cheap. Manny Corpas, Matt Guerrier and Chad Gaudin could all be invited to camp. If so, that would make my suggestion to pursue incentive laden deals to Eric O'Flaherty, Joel Hanrahan and Ryan Madson seem more sensible. All three pitchers are coming off major arm operations and may not be ready for the start of 2014. That should drop the price and the potential reward could trump the risk.
The Mets offseason may or may not be worth watching. I am hoping for more proven players to be part of the 2014 team. But, you are not crazy if you are still doubting whether the Mets will spend the money necessary to do it. An offseason of Colvin, Gutierrez, Barmes, Betancourt, McDonald, Niemann, Hanrahan, Madson and O'Flaherty does not excite anybody. But, I would rather take my chances with these players than simply roll over the roster for the 4th consecutive season. The right answer is for the Mets to just spend some money. But what if they simply do not want to?

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30-1 MLB countdown previews: #23 Diamondbacks

3/8/2013

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So far on the countdown, the only team that I was down on that some have disagreed with is the Milwaukee Brewers. The pitching is going to be a concern and I do see them taking a major step back this season. Really, from here forward, most teams are more evenly matched. However, I have the Diamondbacks next on my list, ranking them #23 on the 30-1 MLB countdown previews.
Arizona finished in 3rd place in the NL West last season, going 81-81. This was just 1 year off a NL West title and 94-68 record under manager Kirk Gibson. The 2012 decline mirrored the decline of star RF Justin Upton, who hit .289, 31, 88 in 2011 and .280, 17, 67 in 2012. He saw his 2Bs decrease from 39 to 24 and his SLG % from .529 to .430. That and character flaws led to his trade to the Atlanta Braves. Top RHP pitching prospect Trevor Bauer was traded because of similar character issues to the Indians in a deal that brought SS Didi Gregorius from Cincinnati Reds.
The strength of this team will be their pitching staff, both starters and relievers. Ian Kennedy (15-12, 4.02) is a year removed from winning 21 games. Trevor Cahill (13-12. 3.78) and Wade Miley (16-11, 3.78) give the team a solid first three. Brandon McCarthy (8-6, 3.24 in 18 starts with Oakland) signed as a free agent and can easily be a number two starter. Daniel Hudson was injured last season, finishing 3-2, 7.35 in 9 starts. Like many others in 2011, Hudson shined, finishing 16-12, 3.49. Younger pitchers like Tyler Skaggs, Randall Delgado and Patrick Corbin all have high expectations, but can take their time. The Diamondbacks have a lot of depth in their starting rotation.
The bullpen should be just as good this season. JJ Putz (1-5, 2.82, 32 saves in 57 games) has re-established himself as a dominant closer. David Hernandez (2-3, 2.50, 4 saves, 72 games) and Brad Ziegler (6-1, 2.49, 77 games) are two of the more underrated set-up men in the game. Heath Bell is coming off a horrible season (4-5, 5.09, 19 saves, 73 games for Florida), but is expected to rebound. Matt Reynolds (3-1, 4.40, 2 saves in 71 games with Colorado) replaces Craig Breslow as the team's lefty set-up man, as Breslow is off to Boston. Josh Collmenter (5-3, 3.69, 28 games, 11 starts, 90 1/3 IP, 80 Ks) will probably be a full time reliever this season. He won 10 games in 2011 as the team's 4th starter.
Offensively, some can say they do not lose much with Upton, especially with his down power numbers in 2012. I disagree with that assessment. Upton's ceiling is worth having on this team and Cody Ross, signed as a free agent, is coming off his best season by a mile. Adam Eaton will likely be the team's CF, with Jason Kubel and his 30 2012 HRs will be in LF. Paul Goldschmidt (.286, 20, 82 with 43 2Bs) will be at 1B with Aaron Hill (.302, 26, 85 with 44 2Bs) at 2B. Miguel Montero (.286, 15, 88) will be the catcher with newcomers Cliff Pennington (.215, 6, 28 with Oakland) and Martin Prado (.301, 10, 70 with Atlanta) playing SS and 3B, respectively. Gerrardo Parra, Eric Chavez, Willie Bloomquist and Rod Barajas round out a strong bench. I would set this lineup like this: Prado 3B, Hill 2B, Goldschmidt 1B, Kubel LF, Ross RF (.267, 22, 81), Montero C, Eaton CF, Pennington SS.
Overall, I like a lot of things about this Arizona team. The rotation, bullpen and bench are all very deep. However, it is a lot to ask for this team to replace Upton. Like I said, not Upton of last year, but Upton of 2 years ago. Justin is more like the 2011 player. Ross will help but will be exposed at Chase Field and against good RHP. Vegas gives their over/ under at 81 1/2, just over their 2012 win total. I see them finishing with the under, at 78-84, 4th place in the NL West.

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External options to hold down 3B until A-Rod returns

12/3/2012

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Today the news broke of the need for New York Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez to undergo surgery for a torn labrum in his left hip that will keep him out of action for 4-6 months after he has the operation in early January. Initially, thoughts would involve the Yankees staying in house, perhaps using Eduardo Nunez there until A-Rod is ready. A logical platoon with Nunez could include free agent 3B Eric Chavez, who was done a very good job in his two seasons as a role player with the Yankees. Others have suggested bringing back another recent Yankees infielder, Jayson Nix, who is also a free agent.

Some have brought up names like Jeff Keppinger and even Kevin Youkilis, as the talk has already started in regards to who will play 3B for the Yankees next season. While I will suggest the Yankees bring back Chavez to play some 3B and DH, I think they should also bring in a right handed bat, with some upside to platoon and possibly play every day if they are performing at their best. Out of the 6 players I mention, four have to be traded for and two are free agents. It is safe to say the further the list the player is, the more it will take for the player to be traded for.

6. Juan Uribe, LAD: Juan has done a terrible job since leaving the 2010 World Series Champion Giants to sign a 3 year, $21 million deal with the Dodgers. From the Dodgers perspective, they plan on playing Hanley Ramirez at 3B and Dee Gordon at SS, making Uribe expendable. Uribe (33 yrs old) will not cost much in regards to compensation and the Dodgers may pick up some of the $7 million owe to him. Negatives include his .191, 2, 17 line last season in 66 games and 162 ABs. He hit 24 HR in 2010, so he could be a low cost, high reward type player.
5. Placido Polanco, FA: Polanco (37) has finished his 4 year deal in Philadelphia; the last season not being so great for him. His .257, 2, 19 in 90 games and 303 ABs lost him the 3B job by seasons end. As a free agent, he is expected to command much less than the $6+ million he received last season. He hit .298, 6, 52 for the Phillies in 2010. His impact in the clubhouse has been known to be very good, something any team can use.
4. Brandon Inge, FA: Inge (35) split last season between Detroit and Oakland and had a little bit of a resurgence. He hit .218, 12, 54 in 83 games, 303 AB in 2012, making $5.5 million. As a free agent, like Polanco, would require much less than that. He hit .247, 13, 70 in 2010 with Detroit. Always known as a good defender, he has the ability to provide a little more power than Polanco.
3. Willie Bloomquist, Ari: Bloomquist (35) is on the second year of a two year deal with Arizona that will pay him a combined $3.8 million. He does not have the power potential Inge and Uribe could possess, but Bloomquist could play a very good role as a utility player once Rodriguez returns. He also hit .302, 0, 23 in 80 games and 324 ABs, batting several times as a leadoff or number two hitter for a competitive Diamondbacks team. His acquisition would have to be complimentary to a Chavez re-signing, as Bloomquist is a more complete player than Nix.
2. Alberto Callaspo, LAA: Callaspo may or may not be available, but if he is, the Yankees should be one of the first teams to inquire. Callaspo may be the starting 3B once again in 2013 for the Angels. The Angels could go with Mark Trumbo or make another move for a 3B. Callaspo (29) hit .252, 10, 53 in 138 games, 457 ABs. He made $3.15 million and is 4th year arbitration eligible for the 2013 season. The Yankees would also have to see if they have something of value to convince the Angels to make this trade.
1. Chris Johnson, Ari: Johnson (28) may not be available at all. It the Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton to Texas, they may want top prospects Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar as part of the trade, freeing up Johnson to be moved. Johnson hit .281, 15, 76 for the Diamondbacks and Astros last season. He had a very good run as a rookie in 2010 before taking a step back in 2011. Ideally, he would be the best fit for the Yankees. Of course, it would take more than in a deal for Callaspo, but would be more worth it.

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The Braves will settle for a lower-tier SS replacement

7/14/2012

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    There was a lot of talk during the All Star break that the Atlanta Braves intended to make a move to acquire a shortstop. Newly crowned started Andrelton Simmons will be out several weeks with a finger injury. Many thought a trade would have been put in place before the Braves Friday night game against the New York Mets. In some cases, the anticipation built itself up for a major acquisition to be made. It is unlikely the move will be major.
    Some have suggested the Diamondbacks trade Stephen Drew to Atlanta, due to the fact that the D'Backs owner soured on him to the media. Or JJ Hardy from Baltimore. Even Alberto Callaspo from LA is probably not coming to Atlanta. Baltimore and LA are in the race and are not looking to move the latter two. Arizona, though they may be realizing this is not their year, will be looking for a very lucrative package to move Drew.
    So where does this leave Atlanta? Backup SS Jack Wilson injured his finger last night against the Mets. It seemed similar to Simmons' injury. Tyler Pastornicky should be on his way up from AAA. I feel the Braves will make a move, just not a major move for a SS. Most realistically I can see the Braves trading for Colorado's Marco Scutaro (.273, 4, 24) or Kansas City's Yuniesky Betancourt (.238, 6, 31). Both could play every day similar to Alex Gonzalez of a year ago. Other possibilities could be Minnesota's Jamey Carroll (.231, 0, 13) or Boston's Nick Punto (.212, 1, 8). Both Carroll and Punto are signed through 2013.
    If the Braves were to trade with Arizona, it would not be for Drew. Willie Bloomquist (.293, 0, 13) has more versatility and would cost the Braves much less than Drew. If the Braves wanted to go the very cheap route, they could make a trade with Seattle for Brendan Ryan (.184, 2, 22) or with Milwaukee for Cesar Izturis (.212, 1, 8) or Cody Ransom (.187, 4, 20).
    If I had to make a guess, I see either Scutaro or Betancourt ending up with Atlanta, with Bloomquist as the third choice. Carroll would be a good fit, but I don't think Atlanta wants to have him through next year. Same with Punto. As for the others, I'm sure the Braves know they will be available later in the year for little to nothing. The Braves will not make a huge trade to acquire a shortstop. Maybe a pitcher or power bat, but not a SS.

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2015 30-1 MLB countdown previews: #3 Seattle Mariners

Mets Black Friday value list 2013

30-1 MLB countdown previews: #23 Diamondbacks

External options to hold down 3B until A-Rod returns

The Braves will settle for a lower-tier SS replacement

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