After the Yankees signed free agent OF Carlos Beltran to a three year contract, there was a discussion over whether he is a Hall of Fame player. While he has had an outstanding postseason career, (.333, .445, .683, 1.128, 16 HR, 40 RBI in 180 ABs), he has missed a little bit of time due to injury and his overall career numbers come out very good, but not outstanding.
As of this moment, Beltran has a .283 career average with a .359 OBP, .496 SLG for a .854 OPS. In 16 seasons, he has 1346 RS, 2228 hits, 446 2B, 77 3B, 358 HR and 1327 RBI. If he were to retire today, I honestly would not view him as a Hall of Fame player.
But he is coming off three straight solid seasons since his last injury. And his Yankees deal is for three more. Obviously, if he compiles three more seasons similar to his last three, his chances will improve. For this hypothetical situation, we will assume Beltran's triple stash line remains the same and we will give him 80 RS, 160 hits, 33 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR and 88 RBI over each of the next three seasons. This will bring his career totals to 1586 RS, 2708 hits, 545 2B, 83 3B, 433 HR and 1591 RBI over 19 seasons.
With all fairness to Beltran, I will not put his career numbers against that of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and even that of Ken Griffey Jr. So I picked three different players who all tell a different story, all of whom happen to be in Baseball's Hall of Fame.
First is Kirby Puckett. Puckett won two World Series titles and retired earlier than he should have due to injury. He hit .318 in his career with a .837 OPS. In 12 seasons, he finished with 1071 RS, 2304 hits, 414 2B, 57 3B, 207 HR and 1085 RBI. Puckett's average numbers per season come out better than Beltran even though Beltran has the higher OPS, .854-.837. If you want to give Puckett a mulligan for his injury and subsequent early death, I'd give a slight advantage to Puckett.
Next I will try Duke Snider. Snider won two World Series as well and played 18 seasons in the big leagues. In my opinion, a better comparison. Snider hit .295 for his career with a .919 OPS. He scored 1259 career runs, had 2116 hits, 358 2B, 85 3B, 407 career HR and 1333 RBI. As good as Snider was, the advantage clearly goes to Beltran in this instance.
Finally, there is Andre Dawson. Dawson never won a World Series title in his 21 MLB seasons. He was a .279 hitter with a .806 OPS. He scored 1373 runs, had 2774 hits, 503 2B, 98 3B, 438 HR and 1591 RBI for his career. Look back at Beltran's estimated career HR and RBI. Their career numbers all around are kind of equal. Plus Dawson played his first 8 seasons in CF for Montreal.
I see how Beltran is projected to finish with better numbers than Snider and is eerily similar to Dawson. Snider made the HOF because he was one of the best in the game, though his career totals did not reflect it. So if you want to go with the idea that if Dawson is in, so should Beltran, I do not have a problem with it. But to compare to the game's best CF/OF, it is not a fair discussion. I would still put him in, but I do not look at it as a slam dunk.
As of this moment, Beltran has a .283 career average with a .359 OBP, .496 SLG for a .854 OPS. In 16 seasons, he has 1346 RS, 2228 hits, 446 2B, 77 3B, 358 HR and 1327 RBI. If he were to retire today, I honestly would not view him as a Hall of Fame player.
But he is coming off three straight solid seasons since his last injury. And his Yankees deal is for three more. Obviously, if he compiles three more seasons similar to his last three, his chances will improve. For this hypothetical situation, we will assume Beltran's triple stash line remains the same and we will give him 80 RS, 160 hits, 33 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR and 88 RBI over each of the next three seasons. This will bring his career totals to 1586 RS, 2708 hits, 545 2B, 83 3B, 433 HR and 1591 RBI over 19 seasons.
With all fairness to Beltran, I will not put his career numbers against that of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and even that of Ken Griffey Jr. So I picked three different players who all tell a different story, all of whom happen to be in Baseball's Hall of Fame.
First is Kirby Puckett. Puckett won two World Series titles and retired earlier than he should have due to injury. He hit .318 in his career with a .837 OPS. In 12 seasons, he finished with 1071 RS, 2304 hits, 414 2B, 57 3B, 207 HR and 1085 RBI. Puckett's average numbers per season come out better than Beltran even though Beltran has the higher OPS, .854-.837. If you want to give Puckett a mulligan for his injury and subsequent early death, I'd give a slight advantage to Puckett.
Next I will try Duke Snider. Snider won two World Series as well and played 18 seasons in the big leagues. In my opinion, a better comparison. Snider hit .295 for his career with a .919 OPS. He scored 1259 career runs, had 2116 hits, 358 2B, 85 3B, 407 career HR and 1333 RBI. As good as Snider was, the advantage clearly goes to Beltran in this instance.
Finally, there is Andre Dawson. Dawson never won a World Series title in his 21 MLB seasons. He was a .279 hitter with a .806 OPS. He scored 1373 runs, had 2774 hits, 503 2B, 98 3B, 438 HR and 1591 RBI for his career. Look back at Beltran's estimated career HR and RBI. Their career numbers all around are kind of equal. Plus Dawson played his first 8 seasons in CF for Montreal.
I see how Beltran is projected to finish with better numbers than Snider and is eerily similar to Dawson. Snider made the HOF because he was one of the best in the game, though his career totals did not reflect it. So if you want to go with the idea that if Dawson is in, so should Beltran, I do not have a problem with it. But to compare to the game's best CF/OF, it is not a fair discussion. I would still put him in, but I do not look at it as a slam dunk.
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