I know the Boston Red Sox are concerned about increasing their payroll because of the Luxury Tax situation, but I don't know why they don't seem so interested. Teams like the Rangers and Astros make sense to Oswalt, if nobody else. (Texas has too many starting pitchers as it is and why would Houston bring Oswalt in for anything other than a retirement tour?) Rumors are that the Cardinals are looking to trade Kyle McClellan to free up some payroll and the Reds are looking to do the same with Homer Bailey. But neither is looking to pay Oswalt any more than $3-$4 million guaranteed.
A team that should be interested is the Toronto Blue Jays, who outside of the Mets, have disappointed me the most this offseason. They are in such a good position to finally make their run after all these years, and have decided not to add top starting pitcher to their staff. They were in the running for Gio Gonzalez, reportedly came in second on Yu Darvish and did not sign Edwin Jackson. With the price down, I don't see why the Blue Jays wouldn't be interested in Oswalt.
Other potential teams that are out of the running include the Colorado Rockies (who just traded for Jeremy Guthrie) and the Philadelphia Phillies- who have said they are not interested. The truth is, Oswalt can end up anywhere, except for one team. I'll let you guess what team that is. Cleveland has been fairly aggressive this offseason. If they don't expect Roberto Hernandez Heredia to pitch for their team this season, they may take a flyer on Oswalt. If I had to guess, I'd make the Reds, Blue Jays and Indians the favorites at this point followed by the Cardinals and Red Sox- in that order. I will stress this though, whoever ends up with Oswalt will be getting him for a bargain and I predict he will have a big season in 2012.