St Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Lohse has a chance to stand out tonight as he takes the mound for game seven of the NLCS against Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants. A huge performance in an NLCS game seven is something agent Scott Boras is hoping for. Boras prides himself in getting players a lot more money than they deserve. Boras has stated he thinks Lohse could command a 4-5 year deal up to about $15 million annually.
Despite a huge season in which he had the best winning percentage in MLB (.842) to go along with his 16 wins, his 200 plus innings and 2.86 ERA, teams still need to be careful giving this pitcher that kind of deal. He is coming off a 4 year contract he signed with the Cardinals which has only been fruitful the last two seasons. Prior to his arrival in St Louis for the 2008 season, he had done little to stand out over the first several seasons of his career.
Yes, the last two seasons have been excellent (14-8, 3.39 in 2011). And he was a known prospect with the Twins in the days of Johan Santana. He won 13 games as a rookie in 2002 and 14 a year later. What is going to hurt Lohse the most is the other starting pitchers on the market. Zack Grienke, Shawn Marcum, Ryan Dempster and Jake Peavy are the top pitchers on the market this season. The bigger issue is how many teams are not desperate for a starting pitcher, and or, are not looking to spend like in past years.
We all know starting pitching is at a premium. But lets say Grienke gets a five year deal and somebody signs Marcum and Dempster for three years. Peavy may get two; the same for Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. Lohse's only chance to get 4 more years would be if he stayed in St Louis, and thats not going to happen. I reasonably see Lohse getting a two year deal for about $13-$15 million per season. Maybe the team that lands him throws in an option with a buyout that would allow Lohse to walk away with something decent after the second year.
It is easy to say that just because Boras is his agent, he will hold out for the most money. In recent seasons, that has not always worked. Lohse would be wise to take an early two year-with an option-deal. If he doesn't, he may regret it. If he has to sign one of those one year deals similar to what Edwin Jackson got, he runs the risk of injuring himself and never getting the money he deserves. He missed some time due to injury in his first two seasons in St Louis.
No question Lohse is a good pitcher. He should get paid, but it would it be a good investment to give him more than two guaranteed seasons? No, but Boras is going to try to sell teams on that. If he throws the Cardinals into the World Series outdueling Cain tonight, the whole perspective will change. And Scott Boras will capitalize.
Yes, the last two seasons have been excellent (14-8, 3.39 in 2011). And he was a known prospect with the Twins in the days of Johan Santana. He won 13 games as a rookie in 2002 and 14 a year later. What is going to hurt Lohse the most is the other starting pitchers on the market. Zack Grienke, Shawn Marcum, Ryan Dempster and Jake Peavy are the top pitchers on the market this season. The bigger issue is how many teams are not desperate for a starting pitcher, and or, are not looking to spend like in past years.
We all know starting pitching is at a premium. But lets say Grienke gets a five year deal and somebody signs Marcum and Dempster for three years. Peavy may get two; the same for Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. Lohse's only chance to get 4 more years would be if he stayed in St Louis, and thats not going to happen. I reasonably see Lohse getting a two year deal for about $13-$15 million per season. Maybe the team that lands him throws in an option with a buyout that would allow Lohse to walk away with something decent after the second year.
It is easy to say that just because Boras is his agent, he will hold out for the most money. In recent seasons, that has not always worked. Lohse would be wise to take an early two year-with an option-deal. If he doesn't, he may regret it. If he has to sign one of those one year deals similar to what Edwin Jackson got, he runs the risk of injuring himself and never getting the money he deserves. He missed some time due to injury in his first two seasons in St Louis.
No question Lohse is a good pitcher. He should get paid, but it would it be a good investment to give him more than two guaranteed seasons? No, but Boras is going to try to sell teams on that. If he throws the Cardinals into the World Series outdueling Cain tonight, the whole perspective will change. And Scott Boras will capitalize.
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